Juan Pablo Varillas vs Gonzalo Villanueva
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 00:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Pablo Varillas
Juan …: 73,5% Gonzalo …: 26,5%
¿Por qué Juan Pablo Varillas?
UTR 14,26 vs 13,87 (+0,37) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Juan … Gonzalo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,40 2,75 71,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,36 3,77 73,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Juan …: +7,2% Gonzalo …: -7,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Pablo Varillas
Ranking #244
UTR Rating 14,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #255
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Clay 23/37 = 62,2%
Gonzalo Villanueva
Ranking #349
UTR Rating 13,87 Pro
UTR Ranking #448
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Clay 23/46 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 91,0000
rank_ratio 1,3597
log_rank_ratio 0,3073
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 69,0000
best_rank_diff 208,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 12,1622
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,9756
surface_matches_ratio 0,8043
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,1622
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,9756
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 46,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2432
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,8354
first_serve_won_diff 6,0000
second_serve_won_diff 1,5000
bp_saved_diff 7,0000
bp_converted_diff 2,2000
aces_per_match_diff 2,1927
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 28,0000
momentum_diff 24,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 18,7200
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 110,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 62,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4167
serve_consistency_p1 11,6466
serve_consistency_p2 9,5781
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 3,7369
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0306
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0910
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,3700
utr_p1 0,7376
utr_p2 0,6941
utr_advantage 2,6269
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22370
API ID 15344352
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22370,
    "api_id": 15344352,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Juan Pablo Varillas",
    "player2": "Gonzalo Villanueva",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-12T20:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.47,
      "p2": 2.55
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.735,
    "prob_p2": 0.265,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.735,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 244,
      "utr_singles": 14.26,
      "utr_ranking": 255,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 349,
      "utr_singles": 13.87,
      "utr_ranking": 448,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.26,
      "ranking": 255,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.87,
      "ranking": 448,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7376470588235293,
    "utr_p2": 0.6941176470588236,
    "utr_diff": 0.3699999999999992,
    "rank_ratio": 1.359683794466403,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 69,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 7.0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 23.999999999999996,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.16216216216216,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 2.6269080582179565,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 208,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.30725216864587807,
    "rank_advantage": 91,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4166666666666667,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 12.162162162162161,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.1999999999999957,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 46,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.835428907168037,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.192714453584019,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 6.0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.24324324324324326,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.646559736788662,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.578079737879653,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 3.7368506997471655,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.97560975609756,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.5,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8043478260869565,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 18.72,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 110,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 62,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.03062162162162163,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.09099999999999997,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.975609756097562,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}