Juan Pablo Varillas vs Gonzalo Villanueva
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 00:20
13 Ene 2026, 00:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Pablo Varillas
Juan …: 73,5%
Gonzalo …: 26,5%
¿Por qué Juan Pablo Varillas?
UTR 14,26 vs 13,87
(+0,37)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Juan … | Gonzalo … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,40 | 2,75 | 71,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,36 | 3,77 | 73,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Juan …: +7,2%
Gonzalo …: -7,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Pablo Varillas
Ranking
#244
UTR Rating
14,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#255
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Clay
23/37 = 62,2%
Gonzalo Villanueva
Ranking
#349
UTR Rating
13,87 Pro
UTR Ranking
#448
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Clay
23/46 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 91,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,3597 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,3073 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 69,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 208,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 12,1622 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 10,9756 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8043 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,1622 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,9756 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2432 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 7,8354 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 6,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,5000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 7,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 2,2000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,1927 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 24,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 18,7200 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 110,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4167 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,6466 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,5781 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 3,7369 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0306 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0910 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7376 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,6941 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,6269 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22370
API ID
15344352
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22370,
"api_id": 15344352,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Juan Pablo Varillas",
"player2": "Gonzalo Villanueva",
"tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-12T20:20:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.4,
"p2": 2.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.47,
"p2": 2.55
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.735,
"prob_p2": 0.265,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.735,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 244,
"utr_singles": 14.26,
"utr_ranking": 255,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
"wr_surface_wins": 23,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 349,
"utr_singles": 13.87,
"utr_ranking": 448,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 23,
"wr_surface_total": 46,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.26,
"ranking": 255,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 13.87,
"ranking": 448,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7376470588235293,
"utr_p2": 0.6941176470588236,
"utr_diff": 0.3699999999999992,
"rank_ratio": 1.359683794466403,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 52.0,
"momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
"points_diff": 69,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 7.0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 23.999999999999996,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.16216216216216,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 2.6269080582179565,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 208,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.30725216864587807,
"rank_advantage": 91,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4166666666666667,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 12.162162162162161,
"bp_converted_diff": 2.1999999999999957,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 46,
"serve_quality_diff": 7.835428907168037,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.192714453584019,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 6.0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.24324324324324326,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.646559736788662,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.578079737879653,
"surface_rank_synergy": 3.7368506997471655,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.97560975609756,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.5,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8043478260869565,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 18.72,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 110,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 62,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.03062162162162163,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.09099999999999997,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.975609756097562,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}