Mateus Alves vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 22:00
12 Ene 2026, 22:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
Mateus …: 30,3%
Matheus …: 69,7%
¿Por qué Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida?
UTR 4,00 vs 14,24
(-10,25)
— Gran diferencia
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Mateus … | Matheus … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,25 | 1,57 | 44,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,30 | 1,44 | 30,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Mateus …: -10,8%
Matheus …: +10,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mateus Alves
Ranking
#461
UTR Rating
4,00 General
UTR Ranking
#444130
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
43% (7p)
WR Clay
15/31 = 48,4%
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
Ranking
#297
UTR Rating
14,24 Pro
UTR Ranking
#269
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (6p)
WR Clay
23/40 = 57,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -162,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6478 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,4341 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -79,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -81,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -9,1129 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -8,2468 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7750 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,3871 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,5714 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 56,8182 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0323 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 13,0832 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 8,5000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,6000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 4,1000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,5000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,8766 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -18,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -15,4800 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 243,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 103,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4167 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,4954 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,9268 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 3,9562 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1459 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0870 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -10,2500 | |
| utr_p1 | -0,4706 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7353 | |
| utr_advantage | -112,3288 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22372
API ID
15344358
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22372,
"api_id": 15344358,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Mateus Alves",
"player2": "Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida",
"tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.25,
"p2": 1.5699999999999998
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.25,
"p2": 1.59
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3032,
"prob_p2": 0.6968,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6968,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 461,
"utr_singles": 4.0,
"utr_ranking": 444130,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.38709677419355,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 42.857142857142854,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 7
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 297,
"utr_singles": 14.24,
"utr_ranking": 269,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.49999999999999,
"wr_surface_wins": 23,
"wr_surface_total": 40,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 6
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 4.0,
"ranking": 444130,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.24,
"ranking": 269,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": -0.47058823529411764,
"utr_p2": 0.7352941176470589,
"utr_diff": -10.25,
"rank_ratio": 0.6478260869565218,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 10.0,
"momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
"points_diff": -79,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 4.099999999999994,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -18.000000000000004,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.38709677419355,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.49999999999999,
"utr_advantage": -112.32876712328768,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -81,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.43413300297773616,
"rank_advantage": -162,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4166666666666667,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -9.112903225806441,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.5,
"p1_surface_matches": 31,
"p2_surface_matches": 40,
"serve_quality_diff": 13.083225806451615,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.876612903225806,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 8.5,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.03225806451612903,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.495397190239999,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.92683078341691,
"surface_rank_synergy": 3.9562120432648493,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.57142857142857,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.81818181818182,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.6000000000000014,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.775,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -15.479999999999997,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 243,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 103,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14587096774193553,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.08700000000000008,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.24675324675325,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}