Mateus Alves vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 22:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
Mateus …: 30,3% Matheus …: 69,7%
¿Por qué Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida?
UTR 4,00 vs 14,24 (-10,25) — Gran diferencia
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mateus … Matheus … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,25 1,57 44,4%
IA Fair Odds 3,30 1,44 30,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Mateus …: -10,8% Matheus …: +10,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mateus Alves
Ranking #461
UTR Rating 4,00 General
UTR Ranking #444130
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 43% (7p)
WR Clay 15/31 = 48,4%
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
Ranking #297
UTR Rating 14,24 Pro
UTR Ranking #269
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (6p)
WR Clay 23/40 = 57,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -162,0000
rank_ratio 0,6478
log_rank_ratio -0,4341
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -79,0000
best_rank_diff -81,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -9,1129
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,2468
surface_matches_ratio 0,7750
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,3871
surface_wr_p2 57,5000
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,5714
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,8182
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 40,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0323
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 13,0832
first_serve_won_diff 8,5000
second_serve_won_diff 3,6000
bp_saved_diff 4,1000
bp_converted_diff -1,5000
aces_per_match_diff 3,8766
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 28,0000
momentum_diff -18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -15,4800
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 243,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 103,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4167
serve_consistency_p1 3,4954
serve_consistency_p2 4,9268
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 3,9562
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1459
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0870
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -10,2500
utr_p1 -0,4706
utr_p2 0,7353
utr_advantage -112,3288
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22372
API ID 15344358
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22372,
    "api_id": 15344358,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Mateus Alves",
    "player2": "Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.25,
      "p2": 1.5699999999999998
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.25,
      "p2": 1.59
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3032,
    "prob_p2": 0.6968,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6968,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 461,
      "utr_singles": 4.0,
      "utr_ranking": 444130,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.38709677419355,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 42.857142857142854,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 7
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 297,
      "utr_singles": 14.24,
      "utr_ranking": 269,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.49999999999999,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 40,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 4.0,
      "ranking": 444130,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.24,
      "ranking": 269,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": -0.47058823529411764,
    "utr_p2": 0.7352941176470589,
    "utr_diff": -10.25,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6478260869565218,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": -79,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.099999999999994,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -18.000000000000004,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.38709677419355,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.49999999999999,
    "utr_advantage": -112.32876712328768,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -81,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.43413300297773616,
    "rank_advantage": -162,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4166666666666667,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -9.112903225806441,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.5,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 40,
    "serve_quality_diff": 13.083225806451615,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.876612903225806,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 8.5,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.03225806451612903,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.495397190239999,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.92683078341691,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 3.9562120432648493,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.57142857142857,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.81818181818182,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.6000000000000014,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.775,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -15.479999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 243,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 103,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14587096774193553,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.08700000000000008,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.24675324675325,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}