Hugo Maia vs Jesse de Jager
UTR Carvoeiro M01 | Hard |
18 Ene 2026, 23:50
18 Ene 2026, 23:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jesse de Jager
Hugo …: 35,9%
Jesse …: 64,1%
¿Por qué Jesse de Jager?
UTR 12,60 vs 12,79
(-0,22)
— Niveles similares
Hugo …
W34-L27
56% WR
vs UTR 12,5
L4
Jesse …
W29-L23
56% WR
vs UTR 12,1
W2
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (31%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Hugo … | Jesse … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamdom | 2,10 | 1,58 | 47,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,78 | 1,56 | 35,9% |
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Hugo Maia
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,60 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1468
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
33% (9p)
WR Hard
0/1 = 0,0%
Jesse de Jager
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,79 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1299
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (5p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Hugo Maia
Record 2025
34W - 27L (56%)
Racha
4L
UTR Oponentes
12,5
Últimos 5:
L
L
L
L
W
Jesse de Jager
Record 2025
29W - 23L (56%)
Racha
2W
UTR Oponentes
12,1
Últimos 5:
W
W
L
L
W
Análisis Momentum
Momentum similar entre ambos jugadores.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -14,1067 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 4,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 1,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -1,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3133 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3067 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 36,7200 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 51,2000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 30,4000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 63,6000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 50,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 22,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 23,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 14,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,8107 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,8687 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5412 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5671 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,7309 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22397
API ID
15336968
Gamdom ID
584567
Torneo
UTR Carvoeiro M01
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22397,
"api_id": 15336968,
"gamdom_id": 584567,
"player1": "Hugo Maia",
"player2": "Jesse de Jager",
"tournament": "UTR Carvoeiro M01",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-18T19:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.58
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.22,
"p2": 1.62
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3592,
"prob_p2": 0.6408,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6408,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.6,
"utr_ranking": 1468,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 34,
"utr_v4_losses": 27,
"utr_v4_wr": 55.73770491803278,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 4,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.48,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.44,
"opponent_name": "Obrad Markovski"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.0,
"opponent_name": "JanMagnus Johnson"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Leandro Zgraggen"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.44,
"opponent_name": "Freddy MURRAY"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.42,
"opponent_name": "Sasa Markovic"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:40.157265+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 1,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 33.33333333333333,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 9
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.79,
"utr_ranking": 1299,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 29,
"utr_v4_losses": 23,
"utr_v4_wr": 55.769230769230774,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 2,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.12,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.89,
"opponent_name": "Samuel Stolarik"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.96,
"opponent_name": "Patrick Jozwicki"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.26,
"opponent_name": "Yshai Oliel"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.44,
"opponent_name": "Calvin Mueller"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Aaron James Williams"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:53.794107+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 5
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.6,
"ranking": 1468,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.79,
"ranking": 1299,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5411764705882353,
"utr_p2": 0.5670588235294118,
"utr_diff": -0.22000000000000064,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.0,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 63.6,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 30.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -1.7309205350118066,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 50.0,
"p1_surface_matches": 1,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 36.72,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.0,
"combined_confidence": 0.30666666666666664,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 51.2,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.810686784175549,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.868686868686865,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 4.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 30.4,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 22.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 23,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 14,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.106666666666666,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}