Hugo Maia vs Jesse de Jager
UTR Carvoeiro M01 | Hard |
18 Ene 2026, 23:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jesse de Jager
Hugo …: 35,9% Jesse …: 64,1%
¿Por qué Jesse de Jager?
UTR 12,60 vs 12,79 (-0,22) — Niveles similares
Hugo …
W34-L27
56% WR
vs UTR 12,5
L4
Jesse …
W29-L23
56% WR
vs UTR 12,1
W2
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (31%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Hugo … Jesse … Prob Impl. P1
Gamdom 2,10 1,58 47,6%
IA Fair Odds 2,78 1,56 35,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Hugo Maia
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #1468
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 33% (9p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Jesse de Jager
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,79 Pro
UTR Ranking #1299
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (5p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Hugo Maia
Record 2025 34W - 27L (56%)
Racha 4L
UTR Oponentes 12,5
Últimos 5:
L L L L W
Jesse de Jager
Record 2025 29W - 23L (56%)
Racha 2W
UTR Oponentes 12,1
Últimos 5:
W W L L W
Análisis Momentum
Momentum similar entre ambos jugadores.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -14,1067
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 4,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 1,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -1,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3133
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3067
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 36,7200
first_serve_won_diff 51,2000
second_serve_won_diff 30,4000
bp_saved_diff 63,6000
bp_converted_diff 50,0000
aces_per_match_diff 1,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 22,5000
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 23,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 14,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 5,8107
serve_consistency_p2 11,8687
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2200
utr_p1 0,5412
utr_p2 0,5671
utr_advantage -1,7309
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22397
API ID 15336968
Gamdom ID 584567
Torneo UTR Carvoeiro M01
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22397,
    "api_id": 15336968,
    "gamdom_id": 584567,
    "player1": "Hugo Maia",
    "player2": "Jesse de Jager",
    "tournament": "UTR Carvoeiro M01",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-18T19:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.58
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.22,
      "p2": 1.62
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3592,
    "prob_p2": 0.6408,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6408,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.6,
      "utr_ranking": 1468,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 34,
      "utr_v4_losses": 27,
      "utr_v4_wr": 55.73770491803278,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 4,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.48,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.44,
          "opponent_name": "Obrad Markovski"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.0,
          "opponent_name": "JanMagnus Johnson"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Leandro Zgraggen"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.44,
          "opponent_name": "Freddy MURRAY"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.42,
          "opponent_name": "Sasa Markovic"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:40.157265+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 9
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.79,
      "utr_ranking": 1299,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 29,
      "utr_v4_losses": 23,
      "utr_v4_wr": 55.769230769230774,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 2,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.12,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.89,
          "opponent_name": "Samuel Stolarik"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.96,
          "opponent_name": "Patrick Jozwicki"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.26,
          "opponent_name": "Yshai Oliel"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.44,
          "opponent_name": "Calvin Mueller"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Aaron James Williams"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:53.794107+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.6,
      "ranking": 1468,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.79,
      "ranking": 1299,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5411764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.5670588235294118,
    "utr_diff": -0.22000000000000064,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 63.6,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -1.7309205350118066,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 50.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 1,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 36.72,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.30666666666666664,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 51.2,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.810686784175549,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.868686868686865,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 4.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 30.4,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 22.5,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 23,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 14,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.106666666666666,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}