Sebastian Fanselow vs Jesse de Jager
UTR Carvoeiro M01 | Hard |
13 Ene 2026, 21:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastian Fanselow
Sebastian …: 78,2% Jesse …: 21,8%
¿Por qué Sebastian Fanselow?
UTR 13,04 vs 12,79 (+0,24) — Niveles similares
Sebastian …
W21-L20
51% WR
vs UTR 13,1
W4
Jesse …
W29-L23
56% WR
vs UTR 12,1
W2
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (32%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sebastian … Jesse … Prob Impl. P1
Gamdom 1,34 2,60 74,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,28 4,59 78,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastian Fanselow
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #1058
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (5p)
WR Hard 2/3 = 66,7%
Jesse de Jager
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,79 Pro
UTR Ranking #1299
Forma L5 33% (3p)
Forma L10 33% (3p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Sebastian Fanselow
Record 2025 21W - 20L (51%)
Racha 4W
UTR Oponentes 13,1
Últimos 5:
W W W W L
Jesse de Jager
Record 2025 29W - 23L (56%)
Racha 2W
UTR Oponentes 12,1
Últimos 5:
W W L L W
Análisis Momentum
Sebastian Fanselow en racha: 4 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 66,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,6857
surface_matches_ratio 3,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 66,6667
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 52,1429
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 3,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3400
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3200
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 43,3600
first_serve_won_diff 51,7000
second_serve_won_diff 51,7000
bp_saved_diff 61,9000
bp_converted_diff 50,0000
aces_per_match_diff 1,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 40,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 30,0000
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 29,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 14,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,5473
serve_consistency_p2 11,8687
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1667
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,2400
utr_p1 0,5953
utr_p2 0,5671
utr_advantage 1,8547
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22402
API ID 15336980
Gamdom ID 584584
Torneo UTR Carvoeiro M01
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22402,
    "api_id": 15336980,
    "gamdom_id": 584584,
    "player1": "Sebastian Fanselow",
    "player2": "Jesse de Jager",
    "tournament": "UTR Carvoeiro M01",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-13T17:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.34,
      "p2": 2.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.28,
      "p2": 3.5
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7819,
    "prob_p2": 0.2181,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7819,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.04,
      "utr_ranking": 1058,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 21,
      "utr_v4_losses": 20,
      "utr_v4_wr": 51.21951219512195,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 4,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.12,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.9,
          "opponent_name": "Goncalo Quintela"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.36,
          "opponent_name": "Karol Malirz"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.66,
          "opponent_name": "Jack Loge"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.25,
          "opponent_name": "Joao Domingues"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.17,
          "opponent_name": "Alastair Gray"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:31.652872+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.79,
      "utr_ranking": 1299,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 29,
      "utr_v4_losses": 23,
      "utr_v4_wr": 55.769230769230774,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 2,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.12,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.89,
          "opponent_name": "Samuel Stolarik"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.96,
          "opponent_name": "Patrick Jozwicki"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.26,
          "opponent_name": "Yshai Oliel"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.44,
          "opponent_name": "Calvin Mueller"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Aaron James Williams"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:53.794107+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "form_l10_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "form_l5_matches": 3,
      "form_l10_matches": 3
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.04,
      "ranking": 1058,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.79,
      "ranking": 1299,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5952941176470589,
    "utr_p2": 0.5670588235294118,
    "utr_diff": 0.2400000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 61.9,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 40.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 66.66666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.8547140649149938,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 66.66666666666666,
    "bp_converted_diff": 50.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 3,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 43.36000000000001,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.31999999999999995,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 51.70000000000001,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.547282671405344,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.868686868686865,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 52.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 51.70000000000001,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 30.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 29,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 14,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.16666666666666652,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.6857142857142843,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}