Sebastian Fanselow vs Jesse de Jager
UTR Carvoeiro M01 | Hard |
13 Ene 2026, 21:45
13 Ene 2026, 21:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastian Fanselow
Sebastian …: 78,2%
Jesse …: 21,8%
¿Por qué Sebastian Fanselow?
UTR 13,04 vs 12,79
(+0,24)
— Niveles similares
Sebastian …
W21-L20
51% WR
vs UTR 13,1
W4
Jesse …
W29-L23
56% WR
vs UTR 12,1
W2
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (32%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sebastian … | Jesse … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamdom | 1,34 | 2,60 | 74,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,28 | 4,59 | 78,2% |
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastian Fanselow
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13,04 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1058
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (5p)
WR Hard
2/3 = 66,7%
Jesse de Jager
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,79 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1299
Forma L5
33% (3p)
Forma L10
33% (3p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Sebastian Fanselow
Record 2025
21W - 20L (51%)
Racha
4W
UTR Oponentes
13,1
Últimos 5:
W
W
W
W
L
Jesse de Jager
Record 2025
29W - 23L (56%)
Racha
2W
UTR Oponentes
12,1
Últimos 5:
W
W
L
L
W
Análisis Momentum
Sebastian Fanselow en racha: 4 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,6857 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 52,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 3,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3400 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3200 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 43,3600 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 51,7000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 51,7000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 61,9000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 50,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 40,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 29,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 14,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,5473 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,8687 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1667 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5953 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5671 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,8547 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22402
API ID
15336980
Gamdom ID
584584
Torneo
UTR Carvoeiro M01
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22402,
"api_id": 15336980,
"gamdom_id": 584584,
"player1": "Sebastian Fanselow",
"player2": "Jesse de Jager",
"tournament": "UTR Carvoeiro M01",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-13T17:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.34,
"p2": 2.6
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.28,
"p2": 3.5
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7819,
"prob_p2": 0.2181,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7819,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.04,
"utr_ranking": 1058,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 21,
"utr_v4_losses": 20,
"utr_v4_wr": 51.21951219512195,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 4,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.12,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.9,
"opponent_name": "Goncalo Quintela"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.36,
"opponent_name": "Karol Malirz"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 13.66,
"opponent_name": "Jack Loge"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 13.25,
"opponent_name": "Joao Domingues"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 14.17,
"opponent_name": "Alastair Gray"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:31.652872+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
"wr_surface_wins": 2,
"wr_surface_total": 3,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 5
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.79,
"utr_ranking": 1299,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 29,
"utr_v4_losses": 23,
"utr_v4_wr": 55.769230769230774,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 2,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.12,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.89,
"opponent_name": "Samuel Stolarik"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.96,
"opponent_name": "Patrick Jozwicki"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.26,
"opponent_name": "Yshai Oliel"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.44,
"opponent_name": "Calvin Mueller"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Aaron James Williams"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:53.794107+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 33.33333333333333,
"form_l10_wr": 33.33333333333333,
"form_l5_matches": 3,
"form_l10_matches": 3
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.04,
"ranking": 1058,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.79,
"ranking": 1299,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5952941176470589,
"utr_p2": 0.5670588235294118,
"utr_diff": 0.2400000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 61.9,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 40.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 66.66666666666666,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 1.8547140649149938,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 66.66666666666666,
"bp_converted_diff": 50.0,
"p1_surface_matches": 3,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 43.36000000000001,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.0,
"combined_confidence": 0.31999999999999995,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 51.70000000000001,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.547282671405344,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.868686868686865,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 52.14285714285714,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 51.70000000000001,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 30.0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 29,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 14,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.16666666666666652,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.6857142857142843,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}