Toshiki Karigyo vs Marcel Musil
UTR Yokohama M02 | Hard |
12 Ene 2026, 06:25
12 Ene 2026, 06:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Toshiki Karigyo
Toshiki …: 65,7%
Marcel …: 34,3%
¿Por qué Toshiki Karigyo?
UTR 12,50 vs 12,00
(+1,41)
— Ligera ventaja
Toshiki …
W32-L23
58% WR
vs UTR 11,9
L1
Marcel …
W19-L12
61% WR
vs UTR 10,7
L1
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Toshiki … | Marcel … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,20 | 4,33 | 83,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,09 | 5,20 | 91,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,52 | 2,92 | 65,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Toshiki …: -12,6%
Marcel …: +12,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Toshiki Karigyo
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1540
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Marcel Musil
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,00 General
UTR Ranking
#3738
Forma L5
50% (0p)
Forma L10
50% (0p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Toshiki Karigyo
Record 2025
32W - 23L (58%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
11,9
Últimos 5:
L
W
W
L
W
Marcel Musil
Record 2025
19W - 12L (61%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
10,7
Últimos 5:
L
W
W
W
L
Análisis Momentum
Toshiki Karigyo ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 11,9 vs 10,7).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,1000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,1667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 5,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 5,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 13,0831 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,0000 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,4100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5188 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,3529 | |
| utr_advantage | 12,0461 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22469
API ID
15335193
Gamdom ID
583595
Torneo
UTR Yokohama M02
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22469,
"api_id": 15335193,
"gamdom_id": 583595,
"player1": "Toshiki Karigyo",
"player2": "Marcel Musil",
"tournament": "UTR Yokohama M02",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-12T02:25:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.2,
"p2": 4.333333333333334
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.09,
"p2": 5.2
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.2,
"p2": 4.16
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6573,
"prob_p2": 0.3427,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6573,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.5,
"utr_ranking": 1540,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 32,
"utr_v4_losses": 23,
"utr_v4_wr": 58.18181818181818,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.92,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.78,
"opponent_name": "Makoto Ochi"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Seonyong Han"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.11,
"opponent_name": "Bang Shuo Yin"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.32,
"opponent_name": "Dong Ju Kim"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Genki Fukushima"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:51.856470+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 3738,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 19,
"utr_v4_losses": 12,
"utr_v4_wr": 61.29032258064516,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 10.73,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Nathan Schwartz"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "James Pikkaart"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Y. Versloot"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Noa Tcherniack"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Andrea Brignacca"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:32.846460+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 50,
"form_l10_wr": 50,
"form_l5_matches": 0,
"form_l10_matches": 0
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.5,
"ranking": 1540,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 3738,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5188235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.35294117647058826,
"utr_diff": 1.4100000000000001,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.16666666666666669,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.09999999999999998,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -10.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 12.046134130713373,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 5,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 13.083063123380176,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 5.0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}