Toshiki Karigyo vs Marcel Musil
UTR Yokohama M02 | Hard |
12 Ene 2026, 06:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Toshiki Karigyo
Toshiki …: 65,7% Marcel …: 34,3%
¿Por qué Toshiki Karigyo?
UTR 12,50 vs 12,00 (+1,41) — Ligera ventaja
Toshiki …
W32-L23
58% WR
vs UTR 11,9
L1
Marcel …
W19-L12
61% WR
vs UTR 10,7
L1
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Toshiki … Marcel … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,20 4,33 83,3%
Gamdom 1,09 5,20 91,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,52 2,92 65,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Toshiki …: -12,6% Marcel …: +12,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Toshiki Karigyo
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #1540
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Marcel Musil
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #3738
Forma L5 50% (0p)
Forma L10 50% (0p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Toshiki Karigyo
Record 2025 32W - 23L (58%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 11,9
Últimos 5:
L W W L W
Marcel Musil
Record 2025 19W - 12L (61%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 10,7
Últimos 5:
L W W W L
Análisis Momentum
Toshiki Karigyo ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 11,9 vs 10,7).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,1000
last3_wr_diff -0,1667
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 5,0000
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 30,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 13,0831
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 1,4100
utr_p1 0,5188
utr_p2 0,3529
utr_advantage 12,0461
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22469
API ID 15335193
Gamdom ID 583595
Torneo UTR Yokohama M02
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22469,
    "api_id": 15335193,
    "gamdom_id": 583595,
    "player1": "Toshiki Karigyo",
    "player2": "Marcel Musil",
    "tournament": "UTR Yokohama M02",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-12T02:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.333333333333334
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.09,
      "p2": 5.2
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.16
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6573,
    "prob_p2": 0.3427,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6573,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.5,
      "utr_ranking": 1540,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 32,
      "utr_v4_losses": 23,
      "utr_v4_wr": 58.18181818181818,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.92,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.78,
          "opponent_name": "Makoto Ochi"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Seonyong Han"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.11,
          "opponent_name": "Bang Shuo Yin"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.32,
          "opponent_name": "Dong Ju Kim"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Genki Fukushima"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:51.856470+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 3738,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 19,
      "utr_v4_losses": 12,
      "utr_v4_wr": 61.29032258064516,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 10.73,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Nathan Schwartz"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "James Pikkaart"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Y. Versloot"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Noa Tcherniack"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Andrea Brignacca"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:32.846460+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50,
      "form_l10_wr": 50,
      "form_l5_matches": 0,
      "form_l10_matches": 0
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.5,
      "ranking": 1540,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 3738,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5188235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.35294117647058826,
    "utr_diff": 1.4100000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.16666666666666669,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.09999999999999998,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 12.046134130713373,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 5,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.083063123380176,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 5.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}