Maria Penalver Aguilo vs Mirjana Jovanovic
UTR Carvoeiro W01 | Hard |
15 Ene 2026, 15:50
15 Ene 2026, 15:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mirjana Jovanovic
Maria …: 34,4%
Mirjana …: 65,6%
¿Por qué Mirjana Jovanovic?
UTR 8,61 vs 9,69
(-0,96)
— Niveles similares
Maria …
W24-L22
52% WR
vs UTR 8,4
L2
Mirjana …
W27-L44
38% WR
vs UTR 9,9
L3
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Maria … | Mirjana … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamdom | 7,11 | 1,00 | 14,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,91 | 1,52 | 34,4% |
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Penalver Aguilo
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
8,61 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1463
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
25% (8p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Mirjana Jovanovic
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
9,69 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1194
Forma L5
0% (3p)
Forma L10
0% (3p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Maria Penalver Aguilo
Record 2025
24W - 22L (52%)
Racha
2L
UTR Oponentes
8,4
Últimos 5:
L
L
W
L
L
Mirjana Jovanovic
Record 2025
27W - 44L (38%)
Racha
3L
UTR Oponentes
9,9
Últimos 5:
L
L
L
W
W
Análisis Momentum
Mirjana Jovanovic ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 9,9 vs 8,4).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 38,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 28,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 6,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,1195 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,0000 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,9600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,0859 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,1988 | |
| utr_advantage | -10,4235 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22510
API ID
15337070
Gamdom ID
584738
Torneo
UTR Carvoeiro W01
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22510,
"api_id": 15337070,
"gamdom_id": 584738,
"player1": "Maria Penalver Aguilo",
"player2": "Mirjana Jovanovic",
"tournament": "UTR Carvoeiro W01",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-15T11:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 7.11,
"p2": 1.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 6.25,
"p2": 1.08
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3439,
"prob_p2": 0.6561,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6561,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 8.61,
"utr_ranking": 1463,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 24,
"utr_v4_losses": 22,
"utr_v4_wr": 52.17391304347826,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 2,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 8.36,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 9.23,
"opponent_name": "Alexa Volkov"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 9.94,
"opponent_name": "Laura Boehner"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 9.43,
"opponent_name": "Charlotte Pikkaart"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 9.61,
"opponent_name": "Anastasiya Kuparev"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 8.0,
"opponent_name": "Aniela Odrobina"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:36.019708+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 25.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 8
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 9.69,
"utr_ranking": 1194,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 27,
"utr_v4_losses": 44,
"utr_v4_wr": 38.028169014084504,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 3,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.9,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 10.63,
"opponent_name": "Ekaterina Maklakova"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 10.4,
"opponent_name": "Maria Kalyakina"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 9.87,
"opponent_name": "Sarafina Olivia Hansen"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 9.0,
"opponent_name": "Zejda Veljacic"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 9.0,
"opponent_name": "Valeryia Darashuk"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:53.522862+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 0.0,
"form_l5_matches": 3,
"form_l10_matches": 3
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 8.61,
"ranking": 1463,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 9.69,
"ranking": 1194,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.08588235294117652,
"utr_p2": 0.19882352941176465,
"utr_diff": -0.9599999999999991,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 38.0,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 6,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 38.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -10.42345276872963,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 6,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.119519063686176,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 28.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 38,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}