Maria Penalver Aguilo vs Mirjana Jovanovic
UTR Carvoeiro W01 | Hard |
15 Ene 2026, 15:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mirjana Jovanovic
Maria …: 34,4% Mirjana …: 65,6%
¿Por qué Mirjana Jovanovic?
UTR 8,61 vs 9,69 (-0,96) — Niveles similares
Maria …
W24-L22
52% WR
vs UTR 8,4
L2
Mirjana …
W27-L44
38% WR
vs UTR 9,9
L3
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Maria … Mirjana … Prob Impl. P1
Gamdom 7,11 1,00 14,1%
IA Fair Odds 2,91 1,52 34,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Penalver Aguilo
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 8,61 Pro
UTR Ranking #1463
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 25% (8p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Mirjana Jovanovic
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 9,69 Pro
UTR Ranking #1194
Forma L5 0% (3p)
Forma L10 0% (3p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Maria Penalver Aguilo
Record 2025 24W - 22L (52%)
Racha 2L
UTR Oponentes 8,4
Últimos 5:
L L W L L
Mirjana Jovanovic
Record 2025 27W - 44L (38%)
Racha 3L
UTR Oponentes 9,9
Últimos 5:
L L L W W
Análisis Momentum
Mirjana Jovanovic ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 9,9 vs 8,4).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 38,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 38,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 28,5000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 38,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 6,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,1195
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,9600
utr_p1 0,0859
utr_p2 0,1988
utr_advantage -10,4235
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22510
API ID 15337070
Gamdom ID 584738
Torneo UTR Carvoeiro W01
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22510,
    "api_id": 15337070,
    "gamdom_id": 584738,
    "player1": "Maria Penalver Aguilo",
    "player2": "Mirjana Jovanovic",
    "tournament": "UTR Carvoeiro W01",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-15T11:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 7.11,
      "p2": 1.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 6.25,
      "p2": 1.08
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3439,
    "prob_p2": 0.6561,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6561,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 8.61,
      "utr_ranking": 1463,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 24,
      "utr_v4_losses": 22,
      "utr_v4_wr": 52.17391304347826,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 2,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 8.36,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.23,
          "opponent_name": "Alexa Volkov"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.94,
          "opponent_name": "Laura Boehner"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.43,
          "opponent_name": "Charlotte Pikkaart"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.61,
          "opponent_name": "Anastasiya Kuparev"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 8.0,
          "opponent_name": "Aniela Odrobina"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:36.019708+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 25.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 9.69,
      "utr_ranking": 1194,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 27,
      "utr_v4_losses": 44,
      "utr_v4_wr": 38.028169014084504,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 3,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.9,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.63,
          "opponent_name": "Ekaterina Maklakova"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.4,
          "opponent_name": "Maria Kalyakina"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.87,
          "opponent_name": "Sarafina Olivia Hansen"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Zejda Veljacic"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Valeryia Darashuk"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:53.522862+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 3,
      "form_l10_matches": 3
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 8.61,
      "ranking": 1463,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 9.69,
      "ranking": 1194,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.08588235294117652,
    "utr_p2": 0.19882352941176465,
    "utr_diff": -0.9599999999999991,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 38.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 38.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -10.42345276872963,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 6,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.119519063686176,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 28.5,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 38,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}