Emilio Nava vs Sebastián Báez
Auckland | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 10:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Emilio Nava
Emilio …: 72,9% Sebastián …: 27,1%
¿Por qué Emilio Nava?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Emilio … Sebastián … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,80 2,00 55,6%
Gamdom 1,78 2,05 56,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,37 3,68 72,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Emilio …: +20,2% Sebastián …: -20,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emilio Nava
Ranking #89
UTR Rating 14,99 Pro
UTR Ranking #92
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 8/15 = 53,3%
Sebastián Báez
Ranking #36
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 3/14 = 21,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -45,0000
rank_ratio 0,4886
log_rank_ratio -0,7161
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -468,0000
best_rank_diff -70,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 31,9048
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 12,2612
surface_matches_ratio 1,0714
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,3333
surface_wr_p2 21,4286
surface_wr_p1_stable 52,6316
surface_wr_p2_stable 27,7778
p1_surface_matches 15,0000
p2_surface_matches 14,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0667
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5000
p2_confidence 0,4867
combined_confidence 0,4933
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 17,6729
first_serve_won_diff 4,0429
second_serve_won_diff -0,1143
bp_saved_diff 15,7286
bp_converted_diff -7,5143
aces_per_match_diff 7,8429
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 78,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff -12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -7,4100
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6585
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5441
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7143
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 10,0504
serve_consistency_p2 6,4138
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -22,8482
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0783
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,3307
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8118
utr_p2 0,8118
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22591
API ID 15345146
Gamdom ID 589516
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22591,
    "api_id": 15345146,
    "gamdom_id": 589516,
    "player1": "Emilio Nava",
    "player2": "Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-12T06:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8,
      "p2": 2.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.78,
      "p2": 2.05
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.8
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7286,
    "prob_p2": 0.2714,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7286,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 89,
      "utr_singles": 14.99,
      "utr_ranking": 92,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 15,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 36,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 21.428571428571427,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 14.99,
      "ranking": 92,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8117647058823529,
    "utr_p2": 0.8117647058823529,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.48863636363636365,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -468,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 15.72857142857142,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -12.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5,
    "p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2": 21.428571428571427,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -70,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.716136698784644,
    "rank_advantage": -45,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 31.90476190476191,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.5142857142857125,
    "p1_surface_matches": 15,
    "p2_surface_matches": 14,
    "serve_quality_diff": 17.672857142857126,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6585365853658537,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5441176470588235,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 7.842857142857142,
    "combined_confidence": 0.49333333333333335,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.04285714285713,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.06666666666666667,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.050360281267352,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.413840610178879,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -22.848170865986265,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 52.63157894736842,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 27.77777777777778,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.11428571428571388,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0714285714285714,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -7.409999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07833333333333337,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.33071428571428574,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.26120857699805,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}