Emilio Nava vs Sebastián Báez
Auckland | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 10:35
12 Ene 2026, 10:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Emilio Nava
Emilio …: 72,9%
Sebastián …: 27,1%
¿Por qué Emilio Nava?
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Emilio … | Sebastián … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,80 | 2,00 | 55,6% |
| Gamdom | 1,78 | 2,05 | 56,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,37 | 3,68 | 72,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Emilio …: +20,2%
Sebastián …: -20,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emilio Nava
Ranking
#89
UTR Rating
14,99 Pro
UTR Ranking
#92
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
8/15 = 53,3%
Sebastián Báez
Ranking
#36
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
3/14 = 21,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -45,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,4886 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,7161 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -468,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -70,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 31,9048 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 12,2612 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0714 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 21,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 52,6316 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 27,7778 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 15,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0667 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4933 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 17,6729 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,0429 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,1143 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 15,7286 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -7,5143 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 7,8429 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -12,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -7,4100 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6585 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5441 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7143 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,0504 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,4138 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -22,8482 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0783 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,3307 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8118 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8118 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22591
API ID
15345146
Gamdom ID
589516
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22591,
"api_id": 15345146,
"gamdom_id": 589516,
"player1": "Emilio Nava",
"player2": "Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-12T06:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.8,
"p2": 2.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.78,
"p2": 2.05
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.0,
"p2": 1.8
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7286,
"prob_p2": 0.2714,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7286,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 89,
"utr_singles": 14.99,
"utr_ranking": 92,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 15,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 36,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 21.428571428571427,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.99,
"ranking": 92,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8117647058823529,
"utr_p2": 0.8117647058823529,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.48863636363636365,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -468,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 15.72857142857142,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -12.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.5,
"p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2": 21.428571428571427,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -70,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.716136698784644,
"rank_advantage": -45,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 31.90476190476191,
"bp_converted_diff": -7.5142857142857125,
"p1_surface_matches": 15,
"p2_surface_matches": 14,
"serve_quality_diff": 17.672857142857126,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6585365853658537,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5441176470588235,
"aces_per_match_diff": 7.842857142857142,
"combined_confidence": 0.49333333333333335,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.04285714285713,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.06666666666666667,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.050360281267352,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.413840610178879,
"surface_rank_synergy": -22.848170865986265,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 52.63157894736842,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 27.77777777777778,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.11428571428571388,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0714285714285714,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -7.409999999999997,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07833333333333337,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.33071428571428574,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.26120857699805,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}