August Holmgren vs Sebastian Ofner
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
August Holmgren
August …: 77,2%
Sebastian …: 22,8%
¿Por qué August Holmgren?
UTR 14,37 vs 14,96
(-0,87)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | August … | Sebastian … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,20 | 1,62 | 45,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,11 | 1,74 | 47,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,30 | 4,38 | 77,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
August …: +34,8%
Sebastian …: -34,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
August Holmgren
Ranking
#193
UTR Rating
14,37 Pro
UTR Ranking
#208
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
15/29 = 51,7%
Sebastian Ofner
Ranking
#131
UTR Rating
14,96 Pro
UTR Ranking
#93
Forma L5
0% (5p)
Forma L10
10% (10p)
WR Hard
0/6 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -60,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6859 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,3771 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -158,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -107,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 51,7241 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 13,1402 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 4,8333 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 51,7241 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 51,5152 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 6,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0345 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3800 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6733 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -3,8909 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -7,2644 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 7,6816 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 9,5000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 17,3695 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,2816 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 32,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 22,8510 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 81,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7143 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3846 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,6146 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,8694 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -19,5039 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0772 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5600 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,8700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7482 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8506 | |
| utr_advantage | -5,8804 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22602
API ID
15345374
Gamdom ID
589625
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22602,
"api_id": 15345374,
"gamdom_id": 589625,
"player1": "August Holmgren",
"player2": "Sebastian Ofner",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-11T23:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.2,
"p2": 1.6153846153846154
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.11,
"p2": 1.74
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.06,
"p2": 1.73
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7716,
"prob_p2": 0.2284,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7716,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 193,
"utr_singles": 14.37,
"utr_ranking": 208,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.724137931034484,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 131,
"utr_singles": 14.96,
"utr_ranking": 93,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 6,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 10.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.37,
"ranking": 208,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.96,
"ranking": 93,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.748235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.8505882352941176,
"utr_diff": -0.870000000000001,
"rank_ratio": 0.6858638743455497,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 32.0,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"points_diff": -158,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 9.499999999999993,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 32.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.38,
"surface_wr_p1": 51.724137931034484,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -5.880364988171687,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -107,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.3770761048454783,
"rank_advantage": -60,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.38461538461538464,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 51.724137931034484,
"bp_converted_diff": 17.369540229885054,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 6,
"serve_quality_diff": -3.8909195402298877,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.2816091954023001,
"combined_confidence": 0.6733333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -7.264367816091948,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.034482758620689655,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.614598136549738,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.869423883788971,
"surface_rank_synergy": -19.50393645752474,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 51.515151515151516,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 32.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 7.681609195402295,
"surface_matches_ratio": 4.833333333333333,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 22.851,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 81,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 90,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07724137931034492,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.56,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 13.14020202020202,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}