August Holmgren vs Sebastian Ofner
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
August Holmgren
August …: 77,2% Sebastian …: 22,8%
¿Por qué August Holmgren?
UTR 14,37 vs 14,96 (-0,87) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente August … Sebastian … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,20 1,62 45,5%
Gamdom 2,11 1,74 47,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,30 4,38 77,2%
Edge vs Mercado: August …: +34,8% Sebastian …: -34,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
August Holmgren
Ranking #193
UTR Rating 14,37 Pro
UTR Ranking #208
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 15/29 = 51,7%
Sebastian Ofner
Ranking #131
UTR Rating 14,96 Pro
UTR Ranking #93
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 10% (10p)
WR Hard 0/6 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -60,0000
rank_ratio 0,6859
log_rank_ratio -0,3771
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -158,0000
best_rank_diff -107,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 51,7241
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 13,1402
surface_matches_ratio 4,8333
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 51,7241
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 51,5152
surface_wr_p2_stable 32,0000
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 6,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0345
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 0,3800
combined_confidence 0,6733
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,8909
first_serve_won_diff -7,2644
second_serve_won_diff 7,6816
bp_saved_diff 9,5000
bp_converted_diff 17,3695
aces_per_match_diff -1,2816
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 32,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 32,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 22,8510
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 81,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 90,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7143
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3846
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 11,6146
serve_consistency_p2 5,8694
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -19,5039
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0772
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5600
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,8700
utr_p1 0,7482
utr_p2 0,8506
utr_advantage -5,8804
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22602
API ID 15345374
Gamdom ID 589625
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22602,
    "api_id": 15345374,
    "gamdom_id": 589625,
    "player1": "August Holmgren",
    "player2": "Sebastian Ofner",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-11T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.6153846153846154
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.11,
      "p2": 1.74
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.06,
      "p2": 1.73
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7716,
    "prob_p2": 0.2284,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7716,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 193,
      "utr_singles": 14.37,
      "utr_ranking": 208,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.724137931034484,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 131,
      "utr_singles": 14.96,
      "utr_ranking": 93,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 6,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 10.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.37,
      "ranking": 208,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.96,
      "ranking": 93,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.748235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.8505882352941176,
    "utr_diff": -0.870000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6858638743455497,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 32.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": -158,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 9.499999999999993,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 32.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.38,
    "surface_wr_p1": 51.724137931034484,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -5.880364988171687,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -107,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.3770761048454783,
    "rank_advantage": -60,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.38461538461538464,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 51.724137931034484,
    "bp_converted_diff": 17.369540229885054,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 6,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.8909195402298877,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.2816091954023001,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6733333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.264367816091948,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.034482758620689655,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.614598136549738,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.869423883788971,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -19.50393645752474,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 51.515151515151516,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 32.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 7.681609195402295,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 4.833333333333333,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 22.851,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 81,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 90,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07724137931034492,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.56,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 13.14020202020202,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}