Jack Pinnington Jones vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jack Pinnington Jones
Jack …: 74,5% Gilles …: 25,5%
¿Por qué Jack Pinnington Jones?
UTR 14,52 vs 14,10 (+0,48) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (36%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jack … Gilles … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,20 61,9%
Gamdom 1,63 2,29 61,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,34 3,92 74,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Jack …: +16,9% Gilles …: -16,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jack Pinnington Jones
Ranking #197
UTR Rating 14,52 Pro
UTR Ranking #168
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 33% (6p)
WR Hard 3/9 = 33,3%
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Ranking #208
UTR Rating 14,10 Pro
UTR Ranking #334
Forma L5 75% (4p)
Forma L10 75% (4p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 4,0000
rank_ratio 1,0199
log_rank_ratio 0,0197
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 4,0000
best_rank_diff 24,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 33,3333
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -11,0242
surface_matches_ratio 9,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 39,3773
surface_wr_p2_stable 70,0000
p1_surface_matches 9,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4200
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3600
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 55,9178
first_serve_won_diff 64,8333
second_serve_won_diff 54,6333
bp_saved_diff 54,5333
bp_converted_diff 38,7333
aces_per_match_diff 3,5556
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,5500
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 20,0000
momentum_p2 59,1837
momentum_diff -39,1837
weighted_momentum_diff -37,7276
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 145,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 88,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2500
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 8,4586
serve_consistency_p2 11,5095
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,6568
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1707
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,4960
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,4800
utr_p1 0,7694
utr_p2 0,7129
utr_advantage 3,3566
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22603
API ID 15345412
Gamdom ID 589627
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22603,
    "api_id": 15345412,
    "gamdom_id": 589627,
    "player1": "Jack Pinnington Jones",
    "player2": "Gilles Arnaud Bailly",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-11T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6153846153846154,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.63,
      "p2": 2.29
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.6,
      "p2": 2.26
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7452,
    "prob_p2": 0.2548,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7452,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 197,
      "utr_singles": 14.52,
      "utr_ranking": 168,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 208,
      "utr_singles": 14.1,
      "utr_ranking": 334,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 75.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 75.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.52,
      "ranking": 168,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.1,
      "ranking": 334,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7694117647058822,
    "utr_p2": 0.7129411764705883,
    "utr_diff": 0.47999999999999865,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0199004975124377,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 20.0,
    "momentum_p2": 59.183673469387756,
    "points_diff": 4,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 54.53333333333333,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.55,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -39.183673469387756,
    "p1_confidence": 0.42,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 3.356643356643347,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 24,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.019705071079332337,
    "rank_advantage": 4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 33.33333333333333,
    "bp_converted_diff": 38.733333333333334,
    "p1_surface_matches": 9,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 55.91777777777777,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.5555555555555554,
    "combined_confidence": 0.36,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 64.83333333333333,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.458610998083333,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.509454444853947,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.6568357026444112,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 39.37728937728938,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 70.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 54.63333333333334,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 9.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -37.727551020408164,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 145,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 88,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.17066666666666674,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.496,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -11.024175824175822,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}