Roberto Carballés Baena vs Arthur Bouquier
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Arthur Bouquier
Roberto …: 45,6% Arthur …: 54,4%
¿Por qué Arthur Bouquier?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Roberto … Arthur … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,25 3,75 80,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,19 1,84 45,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Roberto …: -29,4% Arthur …: +29,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Roberto Carballés Baena
Ranking #147
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 7/18 = 38,9%
Arthur Bouquier
Ranking #229
UTR Rating 13,95 Pro
UTR Ranking #408
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 14/24 = 58,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 97,0000
rank_ratio 1,7578
log_rank_ratio 0,5641
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 222,0000
best_rank_diff 140,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -19,4444
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -11,3636
surface_matches_ratio 0,7500
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 38,8889
surface_wr_p2 58,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 40,9091
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,1429
p1_surface_matches 18,0000
p2_surface_matches 24,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2222
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6000
p2_confidence 0,8000
combined_confidence 0,7000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -19,6592
first_serve_won_diff -7,7389
second_serve_won_diff -7,1694
bp_saved_diff -1,9056
bp_converted_diff -3,5444
aces_per_match_diff -6,8194
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 6,2300
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 89,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 71,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,2366
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2500
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4667
serve_consistency_p1 7,3329
serve_consistency_p2 10,9956
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -10,9680
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2081
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1803
elite_surface_amplifier -19,4444
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,6965
utr_p2 0,6965
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22608
API ID 15345410
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22608,
    "api_id": 15345410,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Roberto Carball\u00e9s Baena",
    "player2": "Arthur Bouquier",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-11T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.25,
      "p2": 3.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.28,
      "p2": 3.54
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4561,
    "prob_p2": 0.5439,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5439,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 147,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 38.88888888888889,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 229,
      "utr_singles": 13.95,
      "utr_ranking": 408,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 24,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.95,
      "ranking": 408,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.6964705882352941,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.7578125,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": 222,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.9055555555555372,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 10.000000000000004,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8,
    "surface_wr_p1": 38.88888888888889,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.333333333333336,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 140,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.564070138284803,
    "rank_advantage": 97,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4666666666666667,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -19.444444444444443,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.5444444444444514,
    "p1_surface_matches": 18,
    "p2_surface_matches": 24,
    "serve_quality_diff": -19.659166666666657,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.2365591397849462,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -6.819444444444445,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.73888888888888,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.2222222222222222,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.332913005646666,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.995632046960049,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -10.968030466648946,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.909090909090914,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.14285714285714,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.169444444444437,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.75,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 6.230000000000004,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -19.444444444444443,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 89,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 71,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.20811111111111102,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18033333333333335,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -11.363636363636356,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}