Gustavo Heide vs Jay Clarke
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 04:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jay Clarke
Gustavo …: 14,1% Jay …: 85,9%
¿Por qué Jay Clarke?
UTR 14,60 vs 14,15 (+0,37) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Gustavo … Jay … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,10 1,67 47,6%
Gamdom 1,85 1,97 54,1%
IA Fair Odds 7,07 1,16 14,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Gustavo …: -30,1% Jay …: +30,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Gustavo Heide
Ranking #241
UTR Rating 14,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #144
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Jay Clarke
Ranking #178
UTR Rating 14,15 Pro
UTR Ranking #308
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 29% (7p)
WR Hard 9/20 = 45,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -65,0000
rank_ratio 0,7280
log_rank_ratio -0,3174
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -98,0000
best_rank_diff 11,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -45,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,2625
surface_matches_ratio 0,0500
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 45,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,6957
surface_wr_p2_stable 45,8333
p1_surface_matches 1,0000
p2_surface_matches 20,0000
p1_surface_dominance -1,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3133
p2_confidence 0,6667
combined_confidence 0,4900
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -12,5630
first_serve_won_diff -19,5150
second_serve_won_diff -2,6850
bp_saved_diff -6,9150
bp_converted_diff 4,5650
aces_per_match_diff -1,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 38,0000
momentum_diff 14,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 14,4300
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 58,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 91,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 5,7989
serve_consistency_p2 10,0978
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 14,2834
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,4350
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1150
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,3700
utr_p1 0,7741
utr_p2 0,7306
utr_advantage 2,5703
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22615
API ID 15345406
Gamdom ID 589628
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22615,
    "api_id": 15345406,
    "gamdom_id": 589628,
    "player1": "Gustavo Heide",
    "player2": "Jay Clarke",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T00:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.6666666666666665
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.85,
      "p2": 1.97
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.82,
      "p2": 1.92
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1415,
    "prob_p2": 0.8585,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8585,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 241,
      "utr_singles": 14.6,
      "utr_ranking": 144,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 178,
      "utr_singles": 14.15,
      "utr_ranking": 308,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 45.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 20,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 28.57142857142857,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 7
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.6,
      "ranking": 144,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.15,
      "ranking": 308,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7741176470588236,
    "utr_p2": 0.7305882352941178,
    "utr_diff": 0.3699999999999992,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7280334728033473,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 38.0,
    "points_diff": -98,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -6.914999999999999,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 14.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 45.0,
    "utr_advantage": 2.5703369225425443,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 11,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.31740825271698164,
    "rank_advantage": -65,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -45.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.564999999999998,
    "p1_surface_matches": 1,
    "p2_surface_matches": 20,
    "serve_quality_diff": -12.56300000000001,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.49,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -19.515000000000008,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.79886060190563,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.097780311579674,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 14.283371372264174,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.69565217391305,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 45.83333333333333,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.6850000000000023,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.05,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 14.429999999999993,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 58,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 91,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.43500000000000005,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.11499999999999994,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.262536231884061,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}