Gustavo Heide vs Jay Clarke
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 04:55
12 Ene 2026, 04:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jay Clarke
Gustavo …: 14,1%
Jay …: 85,9%
¿Por qué Jay Clarke?
UTR 14,60 vs 14,15
(+0,37)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Gustavo … | Jay … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,10 | 1,67 | 47,6% |
| Gamdom | 1,85 | 1,97 | 54,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 7,07 | 1,16 | 14,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Gustavo …: -30,1%
Jay …: +30,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Gustavo Heide
Ranking
#241
UTR Rating
14,60 Pro
UTR Ranking
#144
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
0/1 = 0,0%
Jay Clarke
Ranking
#178
UTR Rating
14,15 Pro
UTR Ranking
#308
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
29% (7p)
WR Hard
9/20 = 45,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -65,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7280 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,3174 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -98,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 11,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -45,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,2625 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0500 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 45,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,6957 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 45,8333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 1,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 20,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -1,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3133 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,6667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4900 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -12,5630 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -19,5150 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,6850 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -6,9150 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,5650 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 14,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 14,4300 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 58,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 91,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,7989 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,0978 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 14,2834 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,4350 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1150 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7741 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7306 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,5703 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22615
API ID
15345406
Gamdom ID
589628
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22615,
"api_id": 15345406,
"gamdom_id": 589628,
"player1": "Gustavo Heide",
"player2": "Jay Clarke",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-12T00:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.6666666666666665
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.85,
"p2": 1.97
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.82,
"p2": 1.92
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1415,
"prob_p2": 0.8585,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8585,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 241,
"utr_singles": 14.6,
"utr_ranking": 144,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 1,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 178,
"utr_singles": 14.15,
"utr_ranking": 308,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 45.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 20,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 28.57142857142857,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 7
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.6,
"ranking": 144,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.15,
"ranking": 308,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7741176470588236,
"utr_p2": 0.7305882352941178,
"utr_diff": 0.3699999999999992,
"rank_ratio": 0.7280334728033473,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 52.0,
"momentum_p2": 38.0,
"points_diff": -98,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -6.914999999999999,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 14.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 45.0,
"utr_advantage": 2.5703369225425443,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 11,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.31740825271698164,
"rank_advantage": -65,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -45.0,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.564999999999998,
"p1_surface_matches": 1,
"p2_surface_matches": 20,
"serve_quality_diff": -12.56300000000001,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.0,
"combined_confidence": 0.49,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -19.515000000000008,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.79886060190563,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.097780311579674,
"surface_rank_synergy": 14.283371372264174,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.69565217391305,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 45.83333333333333,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.6850000000000023,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.05,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 14.429999999999993,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 58,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 91,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.43500000000000005,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.11499999999999994,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.262536231884061,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}