Luka Pavlovic vs Colton Smith
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 06:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Colton Smith
Luka …: 17,5% Colton …: 82,5%
¿Por qué Colton Smith?
UTR 14,26 vs 14,37 (-0,23) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Luka … Colton … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,75 1,25 26,7%
Gamdom 3,85 1,26 26,0%
IA Fair Odds 5,71 1,21 17,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Luka …: -7,5% Colton …: +7,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luka Pavlovic
Ranking #218
UTR Rating 14,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #256
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 1/3 = 33,3%
Colton Smith
Ranking #148
UTR Rating 14,37 Pro
UTR Ranking #175
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 18/30 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -72,0000
rank_ratio 0,6682
log_rank_ratio -0,4032
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -162,0000
best_rank_diff -51,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -26,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,4621
surface_matches_ratio 0,1000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 60,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,1488
surface_wr_p2_stable 58,8235
p1_surface_matches 3,0000
p2_surface_matches 30,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3400
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,6700
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 11,1877
first_serve_won_diff -1,9700
second_serve_won_diff 1,0200
bp_saved_diff -4,0300
bp_converted_diff 7,9300
aces_per_match_diff 5,9333
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 38,0000
momentum_p2 8,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 23,0700
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 87,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 76,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4167
serve_consistency_p1 9,6316
serve_consistency_p2 10,5395
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 10,7510
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0947
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0280
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2300
utr_p1 0,7388
utr_p2 0,7659
utr_advantage -1,5978
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22620
API ID 15345378
Gamdom ID 589662
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22620,
    "api_id": 15345378,
    "gamdom_id": 589662,
    "player1": "Luka Pavlovic",
    "player2": "Colton Smith",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T02:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.75,
      "p2": 1.25
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.85,
      "p2": 1.26
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.77,
      "p2": 1.25
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1752,
    "prob_p2": 0.8248,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8248,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 218,
      "utr_singles": 14.26,
      "utr_ranking": 256,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 148,
      "utr_singles": 14.37,
      "utr_ranking": 175,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.26,
      "ranking": 256,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.37,
      "ranking": 175,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7388235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.7658823529411765,
    "utr_diff": -0.23000000000000043,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6682027649769585,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 38.0,
    "momentum_p2": 8.0,
    "points_diff": -162,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -4.030000000000001,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
    "utr_advantage": -1.597777005904831,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -51,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.40316361111988513,
    "rank_advantage": -72,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4166666666666667,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -26.66666666666667,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.930000000000007,
    "p1_surface_matches": 3,
    "p2_surface_matches": 30,
    "serve_quality_diff": 11.187666666666658,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 5.933333333333333,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6699999999999999,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.9699999999999989,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.631609452939454,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.539531309097104,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 10.751029629863606,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.14880952380952,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 58.82352941176471,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.0200000000000102,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.1,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 23.07,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 87,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 76,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.09466666666666679,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.028000000000000025,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.462062324929978,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}