Dusan Lajovic vs Facundo Diaz Acosta
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 09:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Dusan …: 41,6% Facundo …: 58,4%
¿Por qué Facundo Diaz Acosta?
UTR 14,39 vs 14,54 (-0,20) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Dusan … Facundo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,10 60,0%
Gamdom 1,98 1,84 50,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,40 1,71 41,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Dusan …: -14,2% Facundo …: +14,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Dusan Lajovic
Ranking #125
UTR Rating 14,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #206
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 6/17 = 35,3%
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Ranking #247
UTR Rating 14,54 Pro
UTR Ranking #159
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 6/11 = 54,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 85,0000
rank_ratio 1,6800
log_rank_ratio 0,5188
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 212,0000
best_rank_diff 24,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -19,2513
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -7,7206
surface_matches_ratio 1,5455
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 35,2941
surface_wr_p2 54,5455
surface_wr_p1_stable 38,0952
surface_wr_p2_stable 53,3333
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 11,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2941
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 0,4467
combined_confidence 0,5067
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,2053
first_serve_won_diff -6,5824
second_serve_won_diff -3,2647
bp_saved_diff 0,1059
bp_converted_diff 6,6000
aces_per_match_diff 2,7380
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -15,1000
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 68,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 62,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,6667
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5455
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7500
serve_consistency_p1 5,5749
serve_consistency_p2 6,8381
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -9,9875
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2321
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1305
elite_surface_amplifier -19,2513
UTR
utr_diff -0,2000
utr_p1 0,7541
utr_p2 0,7776
utr_advantage -1,3784
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22625
API ID 15345398
Gamdom ID 589642
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22625,
    "api_id": 15345398,
    "gamdom_id": 589642,
    "player1": "Dusan Lajovic",
    "player2": "Facundo Diaz Acosta",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T05:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6666666666666665,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.98,
      "p2": 1.84
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.97,
      "p2": 1.79
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4159,
    "prob_p2": 0.5841,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5841,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 125,
      "utr_singles": 14.39,
      "utr_ranking": 206,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 35.294117647058826,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 247,
      "utr_singles": 14.54,
      "utr_ranking": 159,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 54.54545454545454,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 11,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.39,
      "ranking": 206,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.54,
      "ranking": 159,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7541176470588236,
    "utr_p2": 0.7776470588235294,
    "utr_diff": -0.1999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 1.68,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 212,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.10588235294117254,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -20.000000000000004,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 35.294117647058826,
    "surface_wr_p2": 54.54545454545454,
    "utr_advantage": -1.3783597518952397,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 24,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.5187937934151675,
    "rank_advantage": 85,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -19.251336898395714,
    "bp_converted_diff": 6.600000000000001,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 11,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.2053475935828928,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.6666666666666667,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.737967914438503,
    "combined_confidence": 0.5066666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -6.582352941176467,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.29411764705882354,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.574889526386913,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.838126827047431,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -9.987474097832097,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 38.095238095238095,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.264705882352935,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5454545454545454,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -15.100000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -19.251336898395714,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 68,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 62,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.2320588235294117,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.13045454545454538,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.720634920634921,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}