Luca Van Assche vs Moez Echargui
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 08:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Moez Echargui
Luca …: 41,7% Moez …: 58,3%
¿Por qué Moez Echargui?
UTR 14,81 vs 14,59 (+0,14) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Luca … Moez … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,30 3,40 76,9%
Gamdom 1,32 3,40 75,8%
IA Fair Odds 2,40 1,71 41,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Luca …: -30,7% Moez …: +30,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luca Van Assche
Ranking #165
UTR Rating 14,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #108
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 13/26 = 50,0%
Moez Echargui
Ranking #134
UTR Rating 14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #147
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 15/24 = 62,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -30,0000
rank_ratio 0,8171
log_rank_ratio -0,2020
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -98,0000
best_rank_diff 71,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -12,5000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,9286
surface_matches_ratio 1,0833
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 62,5000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 60,7143
p1_surface_matches 26,0000
p2_surface_matches 24,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8667
p2_confidence 0,8000
combined_confidence 0,8333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,8999
first_serve_won_diff 0,8808
second_serve_won_diff -2,1173
bp_saved_diff -10,1327
bp_converted_diff -3,4519
aces_per_match_diff -0,8526
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 28,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 6,0830
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 67,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3750
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3750
serve_consistency_p1 9,4905
serve_consistency_p2 7,7420
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,5253
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0300
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0950
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1400
utr_p1 0,7918
utr_p2 0,7753
utr_advantage 0,9550
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22626
API ID 15345409
Gamdom ID 589621
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22626,
    "api_id": 15345409,
    "gamdom_id": 589621,
    "player1": "Luca Van Assche",
    "player2": "Moez Echargui",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T04:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.32,
      "p2": 3.4
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.38
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4166,
    "prob_p2": 0.5834,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5834,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 165,
      "utr_singles": 14.81,
      "utr_ranking": 108,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 134,
      "utr_singles": 14.59,
      "utr_ranking": 147,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 24,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.81,
      "ranking": 108,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.59,
      "ranking": 147,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.791764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.7752941176470588,
    "utr_diff": 0.14000000000000057,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8170731707317073,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": -98,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -10.13269230769231,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 8.000000000000004,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.5,
    "utr_advantage": 0.9549795361528005,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 71,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.20202662787328712,
    "rank_advantage": -30,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -12.5,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.45192307692308,
    "p1_surface_matches": 26,
    "p2_surface_matches": 24,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.8999358974358955,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.8525641025641022,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8333333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.8807692307692321,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.490469876408653,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.742001777229818,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.525332848416089,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.71428571428571,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.1173076923077048,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0833333333333333,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 6.082999999999998,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 67,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.030000000000000027,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.09499999999999997,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.928571428571423,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}