Mark Lajal vs Francesco Passaro
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 08:30
12 Ene 2026, 08:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mark Lajal
Mark …: 66,1%
Francesco …: 33,9%
¿Por qué Mark Lajal?
UTR 14,44 vs 14,41
(+0,05)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Mark … | Francesco … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,83 | 1,83 | 54,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,75 | 2,08 | 57,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,51 | 2,95 | 66,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Mark …: +16,1%
Francesco …: -16,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mark Lajal
Ranking
#153
UTR Rating
14,44 Pro
UTR Ranking
#188
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
28/41 = 68,3%
Francesco Passaro
Ranking
#140
UTR Rating
14,41 Pro
UTR Ranking
#198
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
18/28 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -9,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,9396 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,0623 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -29,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -56,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 4,0070 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,0278 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4643 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 68,2927 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 62,5000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3659 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -6,2540 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,2756 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,5418 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -4,9983 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 9,9683 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,6394 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -22,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -14,2550 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 71,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 68,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7092 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7500 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 12,4166 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,5299 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -0,2496 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1919 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1339 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7624 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7565 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,3459 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22627
API ID
15345393
Gamdom ID
589654
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22627,
"api_id": 15345393,
"gamdom_id": 589654,
"player1": "Mark Lajal",
"player2": "Francesco Passaro",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-12T04:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.8333333333333335,
"p2": 1.8333333333333335
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.75,
"p2": 2.08
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.73,
"p2": 2.04
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6609,
"prob_p2": 0.3391,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6609,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 153,
"utr_singles": 14.44,
"utr_ranking": 188,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 68.29268292682927,
"wr_surface_wins": 28,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 140,
"utr_singles": 14.41,
"utr_ranking": 198,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 188,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.41,
"ranking": 198,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7564705882352941,
"utr_diff": 0.05000000000000071,
"rank_ratio": 0.9395973154362416,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": -29,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -4.998257839721248,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -21.999999999999996,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 68.29268292682927,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
"utr_advantage": 0.345901072293329,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -56,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.062303883336154865,
"rank_advantage": -9,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.75,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 4.00696864111498,
"bp_converted_diff": 9.968292682926823,
"p1_surface_matches": 41,
"p2_surface_matches": 28,
"serve_quality_diff": -6.2540069686411215,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7092198581560284,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.639372822299652,
"combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.275609756097566,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.36585365853658536,
"serve_consistency_p1": 12.41661351158702,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.52986143243927,
"surface_rank_synergy": -0.24964970674765874,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.5,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.541811846689896,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4642857142857142,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -14.255000000000003,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 71,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 68,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.19192682926829274,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1338571428571429,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.027777777777769,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}