Mark Lajal vs Francesco Passaro
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 08:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mark Lajal
Mark …: 66,1% Francesco …: 33,9%
¿Por qué Mark Lajal?
UTR 14,44 vs 14,41 (+0,05) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mark … Francesco … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,83 1,83 54,5%
Gamdom 1,75 2,08 57,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,51 2,95 66,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Mark …: +16,1% Francesco …: -16,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mark Lajal
Ranking #153
UTR Rating 14,44 Pro
UTR Ranking #188
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 28/41 = 68,3%
Francesco Passaro
Ranking #140
UTR Rating 14,41 Pro
UTR Ranking #198
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 18/28 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -9,0000
rank_ratio 0,9396
log_rank_ratio -0,0623
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -29,0000
best_rank_diff -56,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 4,0070
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,0278
surface_matches_ratio 1,4643
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 68,2927
surface_wr_p2 64,2857
surface_wr_p1_stable 66,6667
surface_wr_p2_stable 62,5000
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 28,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3659
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9333
combined_confidence 0,9667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,2540
first_serve_won_diff -2,2756
second_serve_won_diff 0,5418
bp_saved_diff -4,9983
bp_converted_diff 9,9683
aces_per_match_diff -2,6394
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 28,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff -22,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -14,2550
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 71,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 68,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7092
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7500
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8333
serve_consistency_p1 12,4166
serve_consistency_p2 9,5299
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,2496
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1919
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1339
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0500
utr_p1 0,7624
utr_p2 0,7565
utr_advantage 0,3459
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22627
API ID 15345393
Gamdom ID 589654
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22627,
    "api_id": 15345393,
    "gamdom_id": 589654,
    "player1": "Mark Lajal",
    "player2": "Francesco Passaro",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T04:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8333333333333335,
      "p2": 1.8333333333333335
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.75,
      "p2": 2.08
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.73,
      "p2": 2.04
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6609,
    "prob_p2": 0.3391,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6609,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 153,
      "utr_singles": 14.44,
      "utr_ranking": 188,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.29268292682927,
      "wr_surface_wins": 28,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 140,
      "utr_singles": 14.41,
      "utr_ranking": 198,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.44,
      "ranking": 188,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.41,
      "ranking": 198,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7623529411764707,
    "utr_p2": 0.7564705882352941,
    "utr_diff": 0.05000000000000071,
    "rank_ratio": 0.9395973154362416,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": -29,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -4.998257839721248,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -21.999999999999996,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 68.29268292682927,
    "surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
    "utr_advantage": 0.345901072293329,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -56,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.062303883336154865,
    "rank_advantage": -9,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.75,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 4.00696864111498,
    "bp_converted_diff": 9.968292682926823,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 28,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.2540069686411215,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7092198581560284,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.639372822299652,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.275609756097566,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.36585365853658536,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 12.41661351158702,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.52986143243927,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.24964970674765874,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.5,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.541811846689896,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4642857142857142,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -14.255000000000003,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 71,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 68,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.19192682926829274,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1338571428571429,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.027777777777769,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}