Oliver Crawford vs Daniel Merida
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 10:55
12 Ene 2026, 10:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniel Merida
Oliver …: 47,9%
Daniel …: 52,1%
¿Por qué Daniel Merida?
UTR 14,19 vs 14,00
(+0,22)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Oliver … | Daniel … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,20 | 1,62 | 45,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,35 | 1,60 | 42,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,09 | 1,92 | 47,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Oliver …: +5,6%
Daniel …: -5,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Oliver Crawford
Ranking
#204
UTR Rating
14,19 Pro
UTR Ranking
#284
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
16/26 = 61,5%
Daniel Merida
Ranking
#164
UTR Rating
14,00 General
UTR Ranking
#216
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
10/18 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -35,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8232 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,1945 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -60,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -20,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 5,9829 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4444 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 61,5385 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 54,5455 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 18,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2308 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,6000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 7,6751 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,3949 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,7346 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 2,7295 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,3333 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,4786 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -16,8990 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 59,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 43,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6923 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,1667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,6197 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,0436 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,1638 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1504 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0206 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7318 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7059 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,5592 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22631
API ID
15345365
Gamdom ID
589677
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22631,
"api_id": 15345365,
"gamdom_id": 589677,
"player1": "Oliver Crawford",
"player2": "Daniel Merida",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-12T06:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.2,
"p2": 1.6153846153846154
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.35,
"p2": 1.6
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.33,
"p2": 1.56
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4794,
"prob_p2": 0.5206,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5206,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 204,
"utr_singles": 14.19,
"utr_ranking": 284,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 61.53846153846154,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 164,
"utr_singles": 14.0,
"utr_ranking": 216,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 10,
"wr_surface_total": 18,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.19,
"ranking": 284,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.0,
"ranking": 216,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.731764705882353,
"utr_p2": 0.7058823529411765,
"utr_diff": 0.22000000000000064,
"rank_ratio": 0.8232323232323232,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 38.0,
"momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -60,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 2.7294871794871796,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -19.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.6,
"surface_wr_p1": 61.53846153846154,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
"utr_advantage": 1.5591778880226834,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -20,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.19451682988777294,
"rank_advantage": -35,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6923076923076923,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.16666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 5.982905982905983,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.333333333333336,
"p1_surface_matches": 26,
"p2_surface_matches": 18,
"serve_quality_diff": 7.67508547008547,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.4786324786324787,
"combined_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.394871794871804,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.23076923076923078,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.619666337863629,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.0436219000118765,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.163775905311462,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.7346153846153811,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4444444444444444,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -16.899000000000015,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 59,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 43,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.15038461538461545,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.02055555555555555,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.000000000000004,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}