Oliver Crawford vs Daniel Merida
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 10:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniel Merida
Oliver …: 47,9% Daniel …: 52,1%
¿Por qué Daniel Merida?
UTR 14,19 vs 14,00 (+0,22) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Oliver … Daniel … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,20 1,62 45,5%
Gamdom 2,35 1,60 42,6%
IA Fair Odds 2,09 1,92 47,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Oliver …: +5,6% Daniel …: -5,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Oliver Crawford
Ranking #204
UTR Rating 14,19 Pro
UTR Ranking #284
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 16/26 = 61,5%
Daniel Merida
Ranking #164
UTR Rating 14,00 General
UTR Ranking #216
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 10/18 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -35,0000
rank_ratio 0,8232
log_rank_ratio -0,1945
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -60,0000
best_rank_diff -20,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 5,9829
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,0000
surface_matches_ratio 1,4444
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 61,5385
surface_wr_p2 55,5556
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,5455
p1_surface_matches 26,0000
p2_surface_matches 18,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2308
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8667
p2_confidence 0,6000
combined_confidence 0,7333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,6751
first_serve_won_diff 4,3949
second_serve_won_diff 1,7346
bp_saved_diff 2,7295
bp_converted_diff 4,3333
aces_per_match_diff 2,4786
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 38,0000
momentum_p2 58,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -16,8990
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 59,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 43,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6923
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,1667
serve_consistency_p1 7,6197
serve_consistency_p2 6,0436
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,1638
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1504
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0206
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,2200
utr_p1 0,7318
utr_p2 0,7059
utr_advantage 1,5592
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22631
API ID 15345365
Gamdom ID 589677
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22631,
    "api_id": 15345365,
    "gamdom_id": 589677,
    "player1": "Oliver Crawford",
    "player2": "Daniel Merida",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T06:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.6153846153846154
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.35,
      "p2": 1.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.33,
      "p2": 1.56
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4794,
    "prob_p2": 0.5206,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5206,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 204,
      "utr_singles": 14.19,
      "utr_ranking": 284,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 61.53846153846154,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 164,
      "utr_singles": 14.0,
      "utr_ranking": 216,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.19,
      "ranking": 284,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.0,
      "ranking": 216,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.731764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.7058823529411765,
    "utr_diff": 0.22000000000000064,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8232323232323232,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 38.0,
    "momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -60,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 2.7294871794871796,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -19.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6,
    "surface_wr_p1": 61.53846153846154,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
    "utr_advantage": 1.5591778880226834,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -20,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.19451682988777294,
    "rank_advantage": -35,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6923076923076923,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.16666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 5.982905982905983,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.333333333333336,
    "p1_surface_matches": 26,
    "p2_surface_matches": 18,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.67508547008547,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.4786324786324787,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.394871794871804,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.23076923076923078,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.619666337863629,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.0436219000118765,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.163775905311462,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.7346153846153811,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4444444444444444,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -16.899000000000015,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 59,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 43,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.15038461538461545,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.02055555555555555,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.000000000000004,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}