Jacob Fearnley vs Aleksandar Vukic
Adelaide | Hard | Qualification Final
12 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jacob Fearnley
Jacob …: 70,2% Aleksandar …: 29,8%
¿Por qué Jacob Fearnley?
UTR 15,30 vs 14,77 (+0,66) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jacob … Aleksandar … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,80 1,91 55,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,42 3,35 70,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Jacob …: +18,7% Aleksandar …: -18,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jacob Fearnley
Ranking #77
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #49
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 18/32 = 56,3%
Aleksandar Vukic
Ranking #78
UTR Rating 14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #112
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 19/43 = 44,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 13,0000
rank_ratio 1,1757
log_rank_ratio 0,1618
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 59,0000
best_rank_diff -1,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 12,0640
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,8747
surface_matches_ratio 0,7442
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 56,2500
surface_wr_p2 44,1860
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,5556
surface_wr_p2_stable 44,6809
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 43,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1250
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,8981
first_serve_won_diff -3,3848
second_serve_won_diff 7,0518
bp_saved_diff 0,5933
bp_converted_diff -5,4122
aces_per_match_diff -3,6606
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 42,0000
momentum_p2 48,0000
momentum_diff -6,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -7,9000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8867
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1014
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6250
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2609
serve_consistency_p1 10,8045
serve_consistency_p2 6,3249
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,9525
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0495
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0451
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,6600
utr_p1 0,8765
utr_p2 0,7988
utr_advantage 4,3651
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22634
API ID 15346237
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22634,
    "api_id": 15346237,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Jacob Fearnley",
    "player2": "Aleksandar Vukic",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-12T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8,
      "p2": 1.9090909090909092
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.64,
      "p2": 2.19
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7018,
    "prob_p2": 0.2982,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7018,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 77,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 49,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 78,
      "utr_singles": 14.77,
      "utr_ranking": 112,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 44.18604651162791,
      "wr_surface_wins": 19,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 49,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.77,
      "ranking": 112,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.876470588235294,
    "utr_p2": 0.7988235294117646,
    "utr_diff": 0.6600000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 1.1756756756756757,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 48.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 59,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.5933139534883765,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -6.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 56.25,
    "surface_wr_p2": 44.18604651162791,
    "utr_advantage": 4.3650793650793664,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -1,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.16184302545041396,
    "rank_advantage": 13,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.625,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2608695652173913,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 12.063953488372093,
    "bp_converted_diff": -5.412209302325586,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 43,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.898081395348825,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8866995073891626,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1014492753623188,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.66061046511628,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.384811046511615,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.125,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.804459387121605,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.324912665498502,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.9524667314512147,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.55555555555556,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.680851063829785,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 7.0518168604651095,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7441860465116279,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -7.900000000000006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.04949999999999999,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.04513953488372091,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.874704491725772,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}