Alice Rame vs Jazmin Ortenzi
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 10:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alice Rame
Alice …: 57,2% Jazmin …: 42,8%
¿Por qué Alice Rame?
UTR 11,46 vs 11,17 (+0,35) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (31%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alice … Jazmin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,63 69,2%
Gamdom 1,64 2,33 61,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,75 2,34 57,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Alice …: -7,3% Jazmin …: +7,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alice Rame
Ranking #195
UTR Rating 11,46 Pro
UTR Ranking #280
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Jazmin Ortenzi
Ranking #218
UTR Rating 11,17 Pro
UTR Ranking #404
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 26,0000
rank_ratio 1,1361
log_rank_ratio 0,1276
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 38,0000
best_rank_diff 24,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 1,3970
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 49,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 44,4444
p1_surface_matches 1,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -1,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3133
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3067
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 50,3000
first_serve_won_diff 58,6000
second_serve_won_diff 50,0000
bp_saved_diff 40,0000
bp_converted_diff 20,0000
aces_per_match_diff 3,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -7,1800
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 40,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 5,6687
serve_consistency_p2 8,0752
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5260
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,4740
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,3500
utr_p1 0,4094
utr_p2 0,3682
utr_advantage 3,0960
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22636
API ID 15345346
Gamdom ID 589578
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22636,
    "api_id": 15345346,
    "gamdom_id": 589578,
    "player1": "Alice Rame",
    "player2": "Jazmin Ortenzi",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T06:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4444444444444444,
      "p2": 2.625
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.64,
      "p2": 2.33
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.6,
      "p2": 2.26
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5724,
    "prob_p2": 0.4276,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5724,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 195,
      "utr_singles": 11.46,
      "utr_ranking": 280,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 218,
      "utr_singles": 11.17,
      "utr_ranking": 404,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.46,
      "ranking": 280,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.17,
      "ranking": 404,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4094117647058824,
    "utr_p2": 0.36823529411764716,
    "utr_diff": 0.34999999999999964,
    "rank_ratio": 1.1361256544502618,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": 38,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 40.0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 3.095975232198139,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 24,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.1276239254938297,
    "rank_advantage": 26,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 20.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 1,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 50.3,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.30666666666666664,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 58.6,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.668703076375738,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.07518838915242,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 49.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.44444444444444,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 50.0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -7.180000000000007,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 40,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.526,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.474,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.3970370370370375,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}