Julia Riera vs Ena Shibahara
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Julia Riera
Julia …: 73,5% Ena …: 26,5%
¿Por qué Julia Riera?
UTR 11,76 vs 11,83 (-0,07) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Julia … Ena … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,20 1,62 45,5%
Gamdom 2,10 1,77 47,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,36 3,78 73,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Julia …: +31,2% Ena …: -31,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Julia Riera
Ranking #181
UTR Rating 11,76 Pro
UTR Ranking #170
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 5/7 = 71,4%
Ena Shibahara
Ranking #192
UTR Rating 11,83 Pro
UTR Ranking #146
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 11/26 = 42,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 12,0000
rank_ratio 1,0674
log_rank_ratio 0,0652
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 17,0000
best_rank_diff 23,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 29,1209
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 12,3944
surface_matches_ratio 0,2692
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 71,4286
surface_wr_p2 42,3077
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,0070
surface_wr_p2_stable 43,3333
p1_surface_matches 7,0000
p2_surface_matches 26,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,4286
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3933
p2_confidence 0,8667
combined_confidence 0,6300
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,8980
first_serve_won_diff 2,9511
second_serve_won_diff -7,5456
bp_saved_diff -10,0549
bp_converted_diff 12,0396
aces_per_match_diff -0,0549
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -14,0060
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 47,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 14,2941
serve_consistency_p2 12,9907
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,8999
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2023
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0649
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0700
utr_p1 0,4435
utr_p2 0,4518
utr_advantage -0,5930
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22637
API ID 15345330
Gamdom ID 589602
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22637,
    "api_id": 15345330,
    "gamdom_id": 589602,
    "player1": "Julia Riera",
    "player2": "Ena Shibahara",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-11T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.6153846153846154
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.77
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.06,
      "p2": 1.72
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7353,
    "prob_p2": 0.2647,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7353,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 181,
      "utr_singles": 11.76,
      "utr_ranking": 170,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 71.42857142857143,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 192,
      "utr_singles": 11.83,
      "utr_ranking": 146,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.30769230769231,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.76,
      "ranking": 170,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.83,
      "ranking": 146,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.44352941176470584,
    "utr_p2": 0.4517647058823529,
    "utr_diff": -0.07000000000000028,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0674157303370786,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.0,
    "points_diff": 17,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -10.054945054945051,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 71.42857142857143,
    "surface_wr_p2": 42.30769230769231,
    "utr_advantage": -0.592969080897927,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 23,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.06524052186840094,
    "rank_advantage": 12,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 29.120879120879124,
    "bp_converted_diff": 12.039560439560447,
    "p1_surface_matches": 7,
    "p2_surface_matches": 26,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.8980219780219798,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.05494505494505475,
    "combined_confidence": 0.63,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.951098901098888,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.42857142857142855,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 14.294064208013824,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.990727612274448,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.8998613511127749,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.006993006993,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.333333333333336,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.545604395604386,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.2692307692307692,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -14.006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 47,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2022857142857143,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.06492307692307692,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.394405594405589,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}