Julia Riera vs Ena Shibahara
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Julia Riera
Julia …: 73,5%
Ena …: 26,5%
¿Por qué Julia Riera?
UTR 11,76 vs 11,83
(-0,07)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Julia … | Ena … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,20 | 1,62 | 45,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,10 | 1,77 | 47,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,36 | 3,78 | 73,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Julia …: +31,2%
Ena …: -31,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Julia Riera
Ranking
#181
UTR Rating
11,76 Pro
UTR Ranking
#170
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
5/7 = 71,4%
Ena Shibahara
Ranking
#192
UTR Rating
11,83 Pro
UTR Ranking
#146
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
11/26 = 42,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 12,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0674 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0652 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 17,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 23,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 29,1209 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 12,3944 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,2692 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 71,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 42,3077 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 63,0070 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 43,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,4286 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6300 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -0,8980 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,9511 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -7,5456 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -10,0549 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 12,0396 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,0549 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -14,0060 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 47,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5714 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 14,2941 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 12,9907 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 1,8999 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2023 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0649 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4435 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4518 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,5930 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22637
API ID
15345330
Gamdom ID
589602
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22637,
"api_id": 15345330,
"gamdom_id": 589602,
"player1": "Julia Riera",
"player2": "Ena Shibahara",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-11T23:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.2,
"p2": 1.6153846153846154
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.77
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.06,
"p2": 1.72
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7353,
"prob_p2": 0.2647,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7353,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 181,
"utr_singles": 11.76,
"utr_ranking": 170,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 71.42857142857143,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 192,
"utr_singles": 11.83,
"utr_ranking": 146,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.30769230769231,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 170,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.83,
"ranking": 146,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.4517647058823529,
"utr_diff": -0.07000000000000028,
"rank_ratio": 1.0674157303370786,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 10.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.0,
"points_diff": 17,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -10.054945054945051,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -20.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 71.42857142857143,
"surface_wr_p2": 42.30769230769231,
"utr_advantage": -0.592969080897927,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 23,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.06524052186840094,
"rank_advantage": 12,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": 29.120879120879124,
"bp_converted_diff": 12.039560439560447,
"p1_surface_matches": 7,
"p2_surface_matches": 26,
"serve_quality_diff": -0.8980219780219798,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.05494505494505475,
"combined_confidence": 0.63,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.951098901098888,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.42857142857142855,
"serve_consistency_p1": 14.294064208013824,
"serve_consistency_p2": 12.990727612274448,
"surface_rank_synergy": 1.8998613511127749,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.006993006993,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.333333333333336,
"second_serve_won_diff": -7.545604395604386,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.2692307692307692,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -14.006,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 47,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2022857142857143,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.06492307692307692,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.394405594405589,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}