Lucia Bronzetti vs Aliona Bolsova
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lucia Bronzetti
Lucia …: 89,6% Aliona …: 10,4%
¿Por qué Lucia Bronzetti?
UTR 11,56 vs 11,38 (+0,08) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lucia … Aliona … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,18 4,50 84,6%
Gamdom 1,35 3,35 74,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,12 9,59 89,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Lucia …: +10,4% Aliona …: -10,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lucia Bronzetti
Ranking #107
UTR Rating 11,56 Pro
UTR Ranking #227
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 13/30 = 43,3%
Aliona Bolsova
Ranking #234
UTR Rating 11,38 Pro
UTR Ranking #316
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 0/2 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 126,0000
rank_ratio 2,2000
log_rank_ratio 0,7885
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 428,0000
best_rank_diff 42,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 43,3333
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,3502
surface_matches_ratio 15,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 43,3333
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 44,1176
surface_wr_p2_stable 43,5897
p1_surface_matches 30,0000
p2_surface_matches 2,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1333
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,3267
combined_confidence 0,6633
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 11,4747
first_serve_won_diff 9,2633
second_serve_won_diff 7,4767
bp_saved_diff 3,7600
bp_converted_diff 12,6700
aces_per_match_diff 2,3000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 10,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -7,6590
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 35,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5972
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5556
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 9,9779
serve_consistency_p2 8,5742
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 34,1665
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1927
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,3740
elite_surface_amplifier 43,3333
UTR
utr_diff 0,0800
utr_p1 0,4082
utr_p2 0,3988
utr_advantage 0,6999
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22638
API ID 15345326
Gamdom ID 589597
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22638,
    "api_id": 15345326,
    "gamdom_id": 589597,
    "player1": "Lucia Bronzetti",
    "player2": "Aliona Bolsova",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-11T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.1818181818181819,
      "p2": 4.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.35,
      "p2": 3.35
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.32,
      "p2": 3.22
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8957,
    "prob_p2": 0.1043,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8957,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 107,
      "utr_singles": 11.56,
      "utr_ranking": 227,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 43.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 234,
      "utr_singles": 11.38,
      "utr_ranking": 316,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 2,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.56,
      "ranking": 227,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.38,
      "ranking": 316,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.40823529411764714,
    "utr_p2": 0.3988235294117648,
    "utr_diff": 0.08000000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 2.2,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 10.0,
    "points_diff": 428,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.760000000000005,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 43.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.6999125109361336,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 42,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.7884573603642703,
    "rank_advantage": 126,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5555555555555556,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 43.333333333333336,
    "bp_converted_diff": 12.669999999999995,
    "p1_surface_matches": 30,
    "p2_surface_matches": 2,
    "serve_quality_diff": 11.474666666666664,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5972222222222222,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.3,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6633333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 9.263333333333328,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.13333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.97793825506923,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.574164650259553,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 34.16648561578505,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 44.11764705882353,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.58974358974359,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 7.476666666666674,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 15.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -7.658999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 43.333333333333336,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 35,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.19266666666666665,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.374,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.3501759678230254,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}