Nuria Brancaccio vs Mary Stoiana
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Nuria Brancaccio
Nuria …: 55,4% Mary …: 44,7%
¿Por qué Nuria Brancaccio?
UTR 11,87 vs 11,77 (+0,15) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (33%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Nuria … Mary … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,25 1,57 44,4%
Gamdom 2,95 1,42 33,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,81 2,24 55,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Nuria …: +14,2% Mary …: -14,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Nuria Brancaccio
Ranking #165
UTR Rating 11,87 Pro
UTR Ranking #135
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 0/3 = 0,0%
Mary Stoiana
Ranking #222
UTR Rating 11,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #173
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (6p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 62,0000
rank_ratio 1,3851
log_rank_ratio 0,3258
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 107,0000
best_rank_diff 73,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 5,6509
surface_matches_ratio 3,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 21,2987
surface_wr_p2_stable 4,0000
p1_surface_matches 3,0000
p2_surface_matches 1,0000
p1_surface_dominance -1,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3400
p2_confidence 0,3133
combined_confidence 0,3267
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,9733
first_serve_won_diff 1,2000
second_serve_won_diff -13,2000
bp_saved_diff -10,0000
bp_converted_diff -64,1000
aces_per_match_diff 2,6667
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 22,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff -18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -15,6540
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 83,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 8,2199
serve_consistency_p2 14,5127
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5620
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,4380
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1500
utr_p1 0,4600
utr_p2 0,4424
utr_advantage 1,2674
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22640
API ID 15345311
Gamdom ID 589595
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22640,
    "api_id": 15345311,
    "gamdom_id": 589595,
    "player1": "Nuria Brancaccio",
    "player2": "Mary Stoiana",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-11T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.25,
      "p2": 1.5714285714285714
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.95,
      "p2": 1.42
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.89,
      "p2": 1.38
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5535,
    "prob_p2": 0.4465,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5535,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 165,
      "utr_singles": 11.87,
      "utr_ranking": 135,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 222,
      "utr_singles": 11.77,
      "utr_ranking": 173,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.87,
      "ranking": 135,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.77,
      "ranking": 173,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.46,
    "utr_p2": 0.44235294117647056,
    "utr_diff": 0.15000000000000036,
    "rank_ratio": 1.3850931677018634,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 22.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": 107,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -10.0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -18.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.267427122940434,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 73,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.32576740647565583,
    "rank_advantage": 62,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": -64.1,
    "p1_surface_matches": 3,
    "p2_surface_matches": 1,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.9733333333333292,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.6666666666666665,
    "combined_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.1999999999999957,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.21987714106121,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 14.51267659465829,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 21.2987012987013,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 4.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -13.200000000000003,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -15.654000000000003,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 83,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.562,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.43799999999999994,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.650909090909091,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}