Nuria Brancaccio vs Mary Stoiana
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
12 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Nuria Brancaccio
Nuria …: 55,4%
Mary …: 44,7%
¿Por qué Nuria Brancaccio?
UTR 11,87 vs 11,77
(+0,15)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (33%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Nuria … | Mary … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,25 | 1,57 | 44,4% |
| Gamdom | 2,95 | 1,42 | 33,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,81 | 2,24 | 55,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Nuria …: +14,2%
Mary …: -14,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Nuria Brancaccio
Ranking
#165
UTR Rating
11,87 Pro
UTR Ranking
#135
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
0/3 = 0,0%
Mary Stoiana
Ranking
#222
UTR Rating
11,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#173
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (6p)
WR Hard
0/1 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 62,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,3851 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,3258 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 107,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 73,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 5,6509 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 21,2987 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 4,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 3,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 1,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -1,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3400 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3133 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3267 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,9733 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,2000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -13,2000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -10,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -64,1000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,6667 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -18,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -15,6540 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 83,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,2199 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 14,5127 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5620 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,4380 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4600 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4424 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,2674 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22640
API ID
15345311
Gamdom ID
589595
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22640,
"api_id": 15345311,
"gamdom_id": 589595,
"player1": "Nuria Brancaccio",
"player2": "Mary Stoiana",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-11T23:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.25,
"p2": 1.5714285714285714
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.95,
"p2": 1.42
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.89,
"p2": 1.38
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5535,
"prob_p2": 0.4465,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5535,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 165,
"utr_singles": 11.87,
"utr_ranking": 135,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 3,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 222,
"utr_singles": 11.77,
"utr_ranking": 173,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 1,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 6
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.87,
"ranking": 135,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.77,
"ranking": 173,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.46,
"utr_p2": 0.44235294117647056,
"utr_diff": 0.15000000000000036,
"rank_ratio": 1.3850931677018634,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 22.0,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": 107,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -10.0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -18.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
"p2_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 1.267427122940434,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 73,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.32576740647565583,
"rank_advantage": 62,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": -64.1,
"p1_surface_matches": 3,
"p2_surface_matches": 1,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.9733333333333292,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.6666666666666665,
"combined_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.1999999999999957,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.21987714106121,
"serve_consistency_p2": 14.51267659465829,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 21.2987012987013,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 4.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -13.200000000000003,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -15.654000000000003,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 83,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.562,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.43799999999999994,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.650909090909091,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}