Olivia Gadecki vs Arantxa Rus
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 04:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Arantxa Rus
Olivia …: 28,8% Arantxa …: 71,2%
¿Por qué Arantxa Rus?
UTR 11,70 vs 11,66 (-0,03) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Olivia … Arantxa … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,40 2,75 71,4%
Gamdom 1,33 3,45 75,2%
IA Fair Odds 3,47 1,41 28,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Olivia …: -37,4% Arantxa …: +37,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Olivia Gadecki
Ranking #172
UTR Rating 11,70 Pro
UTR Ranking #185
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 1/12 = 8,3%
Arantxa Rus
Ranking #133
UTR Rating 11,66 Pro
UTR Ranking #195
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 3/12 = 25,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -72,0000
rank_ratio 0,6471
log_rank_ratio -0,4353
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -191,0000
best_rank_diff -42,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -16,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,7500
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 8,3333
surface_wr_p2 25,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 18,7500
surface_wr_p2_stable 31,2500
p1_surface_matches 12,0000
p2_surface_matches 12,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,8333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4600
p2_confidence 0,4600
combined_confidence 0,4600
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,2125
first_serve_won_diff -0,5250
second_serve_won_diff -1,5000
bp_saved_diff -11,0250
bp_converted_diff 0,9750
aces_per_match_diff -0,2500
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 58,0000
momentum_p2 32,0000
momentum_diff 26,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 34,8900
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 67,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3636
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3929
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 7,7367
serve_consistency_p2 10,4950
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 7,2553
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,3447
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,3220
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0300
utr_p1 0,4294
utr_p2 0,4329
utr_advantage -0,2572
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22646
API ID 15345320
Gamdom ID 589616
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22646,
    "api_id": 15345320,
    "gamdom_id": 589616,
    "player1": "Olivia Gadecki",
    "player2": "Arantxa Rus",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T00:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.45
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.31,
      "p2": 3.29
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2885,
    "prob_p2": 0.7115,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7115,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 172,
      "utr_singles": 11.7,
      "utr_ranking": 185,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 8.333333333333332,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 133,
      "utr_singles": 11.66,
      "utr_ranking": 195,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 25.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.7,
      "ranking": 185,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.66,
      "ranking": 195,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4294117647058824,
    "utr_p2": 0.4329411764705882,
    "utr_diff": -0.02999999999999936,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6470588235294118,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 32.0,
    "points_diff": -191,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -11.024999999999999,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 25.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.46,
    "p2_confidence": 0.46,
    "surface_wr_p1": 8.333333333333332,
    "surface_wr_p2": 25.0,
    "utr_advantage": -0.2571795970852925,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -42,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.4353180712578455,
    "rank_advantage": -72,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 4,
    "surface_wr_diff": -16.666666666666668,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.9750000000000014,
    "p1_surface_matches": 12,
    "p2_surface_matches": 12,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.2125000000000057,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.36363636363636365,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.39285714285714285,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.25,
    "combined_confidence": 0.46,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.5249999999999986,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.8333333333333334,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.73667668525187,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.494977327607117,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 7.255301187630759,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 18.75,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 31.25,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.5,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 34.889999999999986,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 67,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.34466666666666673,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.32199999999999995,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.75,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}