Maja Chwalinska vs Madison Brengle
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 06:50
12 Ene 2026, 06:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maja Chwalinska
Maja …: 84,5%
Madison …: 15,5%
¿Por qué Maja Chwalinska?
UTR 12,04 vs 11,61
(+0,53)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (37%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Maja … | Madison … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,67 | 2,10 | 60,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,40 | 3,10 | 71,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,18 | 6,45 | 84,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Maja …: +28,7%
Madison …: -28,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maja Chwalinska
Ranking
#145
UTR Rating
12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking
#93
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
5/9 = 55,6%
Madison Brengle
Ranking
#455
UTR Rating
11,61 Pro
UTR Ranking
#215
Forma L5
0% (3p)
Forma L10
0% (3p)
WR Hard
0/2 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 307,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 3,1027 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,1323 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 373,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -86,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 17,8916 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 4,5000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54,5906 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 6,6667 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 9,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 2,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1111 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4200 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3267 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3733 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 9,0944 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,0333 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 16,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 13,2333 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 13,8667 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,8889 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 38,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 26,4467 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,3846 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 13,2566 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,6526 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 62,9048 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,2514 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1930 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 55,5556 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4812 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4188 | |
| utr_advantage | 4,4820 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22654
API ID
15345344
Gamdom ID
589579
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22654,
"api_id": 15345344,
"gamdom_id": 589579,
"player1": "Maja Chwalinska",
"player2": "Madison Brengle",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-12T02:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.6666666666666665,
"p2": 2.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.4,
"p2": 3.1
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.36,
"p2": 3.07
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.845,
"prob_p2": 0.155,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.845,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 145,
"utr_singles": 12.04,
"utr_ranking": 93,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 9,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 455,
"utr_singles": 11.61,
"utr_ranking": 215,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 2,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 0.0,
"form_l5_matches": 3,
"form_l10_matches": 3
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.04,
"ranking": 93,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.61,
"ranking": 215,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.41882352941176476,
"utr_diff": 0.5299999999999994,
"rank_ratio": 3.1027397260273974,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 38.0,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"points_diff": 373,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 13.233333333333334,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 38.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.42,
"p2_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 55.55555555555556,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 4.482029598308663,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -86,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.1322855037746977,
"rank_advantage": 307,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 55.55555555555556,
"bp_converted_diff": 13.86666666666667,
"p1_surface_matches": 9,
"p2_surface_matches": 2,
"serve_quality_diff": 9.094444444444449,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.38461538461538464,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.8888888888888888,
"combined_confidence": 0.3733333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.0333333333333385,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.1111111111111111,
"serve_consistency_p1": 13.256561763457269,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.652624371618886,
"surface_rank_synergy": 62.90475020970543,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.59057071960297,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 6.666666666666666,
"second_serve_won_diff": 16.000000000000007,
"surface_matches_ratio": 4.5,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 26.446666666666673,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 55.55555555555556,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.25144444444444436,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.19300000000000006,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 17.891590846429555,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}