Maja Chwalinska vs Madison Brengle
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 06:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maja Chwalinska
Maja …: 84,5% Madison …: 15,5%
¿Por qué Maja Chwalinska?
UTR 12,04 vs 11,61 (+0,53) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (37%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Maja … Madison … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,10 60,0%
Gamdom 1,40 3,10 71,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,18 6,45 84,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Maja …: +28,7% Madison …: -28,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maja Chwalinska
Ranking #145
UTR Rating 12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #93
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 5/9 = 55,6%
Madison Brengle
Ranking #455
UTR Rating 11,61 Pro
UTR Ranking #215
Forma L5 0% (3p)
Forma L10 0% (3p)
WR Hard 0/2 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 307,0000
rank_ratio 3,1027
log_rank_ratio 1,1323
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 373,0000
best_rank_diff -86,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 55,5556
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 17,8916
surface_matches_ratio 4,5000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,5556
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,5906
surface_wr_p2_stable 6,6667
p1_surface_matches 9,0000
p2_surface_matches 2,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1111
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4200
p2_confidence 0,3267
combined_confidence 0,3733
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 9,0944
first_serve_won_diff 5,0333
second_serve_won_diff 16,0000
bp_saved_diff 13,2333
bp_converted_diff 13,8667
aces_per_match_diff 0,8889
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 38,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 38,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 26,4467
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 8,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3846
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 13,2566
serve_consistency_p2 4,6526
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 62,9048
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2514
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1930
elite_surface_amplifier 55,5556
UTR
utr_diff 0,5300
utr_p1 0,4812
utr_p2 0,4188
utr_advantage 4,4820
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22654
API ID 15345344
Gamdom ID 589579
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22654,
    "api_id": 15345344,
    "gamdom_id": 589579,
    "player1": "Maja Chwalinska",
    "player2": "Madison Brengle",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T02:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6666666666666665,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 3.1
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.36,
      "p2": 3.07
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.845,
    "prob_p2": 0.155,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.845,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 145,
      "utr_singles": 12.04,
      "utr_ranking": 93,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 455,
      "utr_singles": 11.61,
      "utr_ranking": 215,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 2,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 3,
      "form_l10_matches": 3
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.04,
      "ranking": 93,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.61,
      "ranking": 215,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.48117647058823526,
    "utr_p2": 0.41882352941176476,
    "utr_diff": 0.5299999999999994,
    "rank_ratio": 3.1027397260273974,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 38.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": 373,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 13.233333333333334,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 38.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.42,
    "p2_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.55555555555556,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 4.482029598308663,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -86,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.1322855037746977,
    "rank_advantage": 307,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 55.55555555555556,
    "bp_converted_diff": 13.86666666666667,
    "p1_surface_matches": 9,
    "p2_surface_matches": 2,
    "serve_quality_diff": 9.094444444444449,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.38461538461538464,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.8888888888888888,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3733333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.0333333333333385,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1111111111111111,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.256561763457269,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.652624371618886,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 62.90475020970543,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.59057071960297,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 6.666666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 16.000000000000007,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 4.5,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 26.446666666666673,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 55.55555555555556,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.25144444444444436,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.19300000000000006,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 17.891590846429555,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}