Mayar Sherif vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 06:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales
Mayar …: 27,6% Guiomar …: 72,4%
¿Por qué Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales?
UTR 11,81 vs 11,63 (+0,27) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (38%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mayar … Guiomar … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,36 3,00 73,3%
IA Fair Odds 3,62 1,38 27,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Mayar …: -41,2% Guiomar …: +41,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mayar Sherif
Ranking #109
UTR Rating 11,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #153
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 1/9 = 11,1%
Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales
Ranking #185
UTR Rating 11,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #204
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 1/3 = 33,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 74,0000
rank_ratio 1,6916
log_rank_ratio 0,5257
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 329,0000
best_rank_diff 137,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -22,2222
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -3,4891
surface_matches_ratio 3,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 11,1111
surface_wr_p2 33,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 25,2137
surface_wr_p2_stable 34,3956
p1_surface_matches 9,0000
p2_surface_matches 3,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,7778
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4200
p2_confidence 0,3400
combined_confidence 0,3800
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 11,5122
first_serve_won_diff 18,6889
second_serve_won_diff -3,1444
bp_saved_diff 2,5333
bp_converted_diff -36,3000
aces_per_match_diff 1,5556
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 14,3200
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 7,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3939
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 4,7838
serve_consistency_p2 2,7787
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -11,6815
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,4629
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0927
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,2700
utr_p1 0,4588
utr_p2 0,4271
utr_advantage 2,2949
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22655
API ID 15345325
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22655,
    "api_id": 15345325,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Mayar Sherif",
    "player2": "Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T02:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3636363636363638,
      "p2": 3.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.39,
      "p2": 2.92
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.276,
    "prob_p2": 0.724,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.724,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 109,
      "utr_singles": 11.81,
      "utr_ranking": 153,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 11.11111111111111,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 185,
      "utr_singles": 11.63,
      "utr_ranking": 204,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 11.81,
      "ranking": 153,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.63,
      "ranking": 204,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.4270588235294119,
    "utr_diff": 0.2699999999999996,
    "rank_ratio": 1.691588785046729,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": 329,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 2.5333333333333314,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.42,
    "p2_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "surface_wr_p1": 11.11111111111111,
    "surface_wr_p2": 33.33333333333333,
    "utr_advantage": 2.2949426264343353,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 137,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.5256681968039196,
    "rank_advantage": 74,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -22.222222222222218,
    "bp_converted_diff": -36.300000000000004,
    "p1_surface_matches": 9,
    "p2_surface_matches": 3,
    "serve_quality_diff": 11.512222222222213,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.3939393939393939,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.5555555555555558,
    "combined_confidence": 0.38,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 18.68888888888889,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.7777777777777778,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.783823582619689,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 2.778734985345527,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -11.681515484531545,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 25.213675213675213,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 34.395604395604394,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.144444444444453,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 14.320000000000007,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.46288888888888896,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.09266666666666667,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.4891330891330887,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}