Nuria Parrizas Diaz vs Marina Stakusic
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 10:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marina Stakusic
Nuria …: 39,0% Marina …: 61,0%
¿Por qué Marina Stakusic?
UTR 11,38 vs 11,97 (-0,44) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Nuria … Marina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,75 1,40 36,4%
Gamdom 3,95 1,27 25,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,57 1,64 39,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Nuria …: +5,2% Marina …: -5,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Nuria Parrizas Diaz
Ranking #261
UTR Rating 11,38 Pro
UTR Ranking #314
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 7/17 = 41,2%
Marina Stakusic
Ranking #127
UTR Rating 11,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #116
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 12/25 = 48,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -123,0000
rank_ratio 0,5080
log_rank_ratio -0,6773
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -277,0000
best_rank_diff 69,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -6,8235
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -3,7931
surface_matches_ratio 0,6800
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 41,1765
surface_wr_p2 48,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 42,8571
surface_wr_p2_stable 48,2759
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 25,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1765
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 0,8333
combined_confidence 0,7000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,5342
first_serve_won_diff -6,0861
second_serve_won_diff 3,4294
bp_saved_diff 1,4162
bp_converted_diff -4,8692
aces_per_match_diff -0,7600
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 8,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff -22,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -23,5050
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 5,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5926
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 14,7075
serve_consistency_p2 9,8952
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 4,6214
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0348
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1430
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4400
utr_p1 0,4165
utr_p2 0,4682
utr_advantage -3,7415
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22660
API ID 15345340
Gamdom ID 589585
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22660,
    "api_id": 15345340,
    "gamdom_id": 589585,
    "player1": "Nuria Parrizas Diaz",
    "player2": "Marina Stakusic",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T06:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.95,
      "p2": 1.27
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.82,
      "p2": 1.24
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3896,
    "prob_p2": 0.6104,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6104,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 261,
      "utr_singles": 11.38,
      "utr_ranking": 314,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.17647058823529,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 127,
      "utr_singles": 11.97,
      "utr_ranking": 116,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.38,
      "ranking": 314,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.97,
      "ranking": 116,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.41647058823529404,
    "utr_p2": 0.4682352941176471,
    "utr_diff": -0.4400000000000013,
    "rank_ratio": 0.508,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 8.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": -277,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.4162352941176408,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -22.000000000000004,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 41.17647058823529,
    "surface_wr_p2": 48.0,
    "utr_advantage": -3.741496598639467,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 69,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.6772738314036552,
    "rank_advantage": -123,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -6.82352941176471,
    "bp_converted_diff": -4.869176470588236,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 25,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.53423529411765,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5925925925925926,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.76,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -6.086117647058828,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.17647058823529413,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 14.707458271304557,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.895155931390137,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 4.6213979084014145,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 42.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 48.275862068965516,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.4294117647058826,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.68,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -23.505,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.03476470588235292,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.14300000000000002,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.793103448275863,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}