Nuria Parrizas Diaz vs Marina Stakusic
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 10:55
12 Ene 2026, 10:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marina Stakusic
Nuria …: 39,0%
Marina …: 61,0%
¿Por qué Marina Stakusic?
UTR 11,38 vs 11,97
(-0,44)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Nuria … | Marina … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,75 | 1,40 | 36,4% |
| Gamdom | 3,95 | 1,27 | 25,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,57 | 1,64 | 39,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Nuria …: +5,2%
Marina …: -5,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Nuria Parrizas Diaz
Ranking
#261
UTR Rating
11,38 Pro
UTR Ranking
#314
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
7/17 = 41,2%
Marina Stakusic
Ranking
#127
UTR Rating
11,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#116
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
12/25 = 48,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -123,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5080 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,6773 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -277,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 69,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -6,8235 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -3,7931 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6800 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 41,1765 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 48,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 48,2759 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 17,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 25,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1765 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -3,5342 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -6,0861 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,4294 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,4162 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -4,8692 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,7600 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -22,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -23,5050 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5926 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 14,7075 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,8952 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 4,6214 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0348 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1430 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4165 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4682 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,7415 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22660
API ID
15345340
Gamdom ID
589585
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22660,
"api_id": 15345340,
"gamdom_id": 589585,
"player1": "Nuria Parrizas Diaz",
"player2": "Marina Stakusic",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-12T06:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.75,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.95,
"p2": 1.27
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.82,
"p2": 1.24
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3896,
"prob_p2": 0.6104,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6104,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 261,
"utr_singles": 11.38,
"utr_ranking": 314,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 41.17647058823529,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 17,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 127,
"utr_singles": 11.97,
"utr_ranking": 116,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 25,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.38,
"ranking": 314,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.97,
"ranking": 116,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.41647058823529404,
"utr_p2": 0.4682352941176471,
"utr_diff": -0.4400000000000013,
"rank_ratio": 0.508,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 8.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
"points_diff": -277,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.4162352941176408,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -22.000000000000004,
"p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 41.17647058823529,
"surface_wr_p2": 48.0,
"utr_advantage": -3.741496598639467,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 69,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.6772738314036552,
"rank_advantage": -123,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -6.82352941176471,
"bp_converted_diff": -4.869176470588236,
"p1_surface_matches": 17,
"p2_surface_matches": 25,
"serve_quality_diff": -3.53423529411765,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5925925925925926,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.76,
"combined_confidence": 0.7,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -6.086117647058828,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.17647058823529413,
"serve_consistency_p1": 14.707458271304557,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.895155931390137,
"surface_rank_synergy": 4.6213979084014145,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 42.857142857142854,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 48.275862068965516,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.4294117647058826,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.68,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -23.505,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.03476470588235292,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.14300000000000002,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.793103448275863,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}