Tamara Zidansek vs Jessika Ponchet
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
12 Ene 2026, 10:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tamara Zidansek
Tamara …: 69,7% Jessika …: 30,3%
¿Por qué Tamara Zidansek?
UTR 11,85 vs 11,72 (+0,15) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Tamara … Jessika … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,57 2,25 63,6%
Gamdom 1,53 2,60 65,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,43 3,30 69,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Tamara …: +10,9% Jessika …: -10,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tamara Zidansek
Ranking #151
UTR Rating 11,85 Pro
UTR Ranking #140
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 5/8 = 62,5%
Jessika Ponchet
Ranking #166
UTR Rating 11,72 Pro
UTR Ranking #177
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 6/15 = 40,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 8,0000
rank_ratio 1,0513
log_rank_ratio 0,0500
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 21,0000
best_rank_diff 82,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 22,5000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 6,2989
surface_matches_ratio 0,5333
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,5000
surface_wr_p2 40,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 56,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 42,1053
p1_surface_matches 8,0000
p2_surface_matches 15,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2500
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4067
p2_confidence 0,5000
combined_confidence 0,4533
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,5988
first_serve_won_diff -0,2200
second_serve_won_diff -1,1850
bp_saved_diff 5,6350
bp_converted_diff 23,0400
aces_per_match_diff -3,0667
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,8000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 60,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 46,9550
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 9,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6071
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 6,9917
serve_consistency_p2 12,6619
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,1252
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1170
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0920
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1500
utr_p1 0,4565
utr_p2 0,4388
utr_advantage 1,2706
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22667
API ID 15345316
Gamdom ID 589612
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22667,
    "api_id": 15345316,
    "gamdom_id": 589612,
    "player1": "Tamara Zidansek",
    "player2": "Jessika Ponchet",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T06:05:32+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5714285714285714,
      "p2": 2.25
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.53,
      "p2": 2.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.47,
      "p2": 3.13
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6973,
    "prob_p2": 0.3027,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6973,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 151,
      "utr_singles": 11.85,
      "utr_ranking": 140,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 8,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 166,
      "utr_singles": 11.72,
      "utr_ranking": 177,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 40.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 15,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.85,
      "ranking": 140,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.72,
      "ranking": 177,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4564705882352942,
    "utr_p2": 0.4388235294117648,
    "utr_diff": 0.15000000000000036,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0512820512820513,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": 21,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.634999999999991,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.8,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 60.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.4066666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2": 40.0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.2706480304955559,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 82,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.050010420574661416,
    "rank_advantage": 8,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 4,
    "surface_wr_diff": 22.5,
    "bp_converted_diff": 23.04,
    "p1_surface_matches": 8,
    "p2_surface_matches": 15,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.5988333333333316,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6071428571428571,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.0666666666666664,
    "combined_confidence": 0.45333333333333337,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.21999999999999886,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.991749767728537,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.661944393207529,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.1252344629298818,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.10526315789473,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.1850000000000023,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5333333333333333,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 46.955,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 9,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11699999999999999,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.09199999999999997,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 6.298947368421055,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}