Alex Bolt vs Elias Ymer
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 04:35
13 Ene 2026, 04:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elias Ymer
Alex …: 34,7%
Elias …: 65,3%
¿Por qué Elias Ymer?
UTR 14,53 vs 14,20
(+0,44)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Alex … | Elias … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,53 | 2,38 | 65,2% |
| Gamdom | 1,49 | 2,65 | 67,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,88 | 1,53 | 34,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Alex …: -26,1%
Elias …: +26,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alex Bolt
Ranking
#171
UTR Rating
14,53 Pro
UTR Ranking
#164
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
13/27 = 48,1%
Elias Ymer
Ranking
#175
UTR Rating
14,20 Pro
UTR Ranking
#284
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
18/28 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0118 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0118 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 2,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -20,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -16,1376 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -12,9368 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9643 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,1481 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,3871 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 62,5000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0370 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,3156 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,7571 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,2929 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,8000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -3,6643 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,6032 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 5,0900 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 146,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5385 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,5293 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,5149 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -0,1899 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0205 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1449 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,4400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7741 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7224 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,0641 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22669
API ID
15345383
Gamdom ID
589660
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22669,
"api_id": 15345383,
"gamdom_id": 589660,
"player1": "Alex Bolt",
"player2": "Elias Ymer",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-13T00:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5333333333333332,
"p2": 2.375
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.49,
"p2": 2.65
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.47,
"p2": 2.56
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3469,
"prob_p2": 0.6531,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6531,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 171,
"utr_singles": 14.53,
"utr_ranking": 164,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.148148148148145,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 175,
"utr_singles": 14.2,
"utr_ranking": 284,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 164,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.2,
"ranking": 284,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7223529411764706,
"utr_diff": 0.4399999999999995,
"rank_ratio": 1.0118343195266273,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
"points_diff": 2,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.7999999999999972,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9,
"p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.148148148148145,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
"utr_advantage": 3.064066852367685,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -20,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.01176484157958643,
"rank_advantage": 2,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5384615384615384,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -16.137566137566147,
"bp_converted_diff": -3.664285714285704,
"p1_surface_matches": 27,
"p2_surface_matches": 28,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.3156349206349276,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.6031746031746037,
"combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.757142857142867,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.037037037037037035,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.529311978486696,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.514913323865366,
"surface_rank_synergy": -0.1898559090885642,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.38709677419355,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.5,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.2928571428571445,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9642857142857143,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 5.090000000000003,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 146,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.020518518518518547,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1448571428571429,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -12.936827956989246,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}