Alex Bolt vs Elias Ymer
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 04:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elias Ymer
Alex …: 34,7% Elias …: 65,3%
¿Por qué Elias Ymer?
UTR 14,53 vs 14,20 (+0,44) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alex … Elias … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,53 2,38 65,2%
Gamdom 1,49 2,65 67,1%
IA Fair Odds 2,88 1,53 34,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Alex …: -26,1% Elias …: +26,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alex Bolt
Ranking #171
UTR Rating 14,53 Pro
UTR Ranking #164
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 13/27 = 48,1%
Elias Ymer
Ranking #175
UTR Rating 14,20 Pro
UTR Ranking #284
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 18/28 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 2,0000
rank_ratio 1,0118
log_rank_ratio 0,0118
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 2,0000
best_rank_diff -20,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -16,1376
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -12,9368
surface_matches_ratio 0,9643
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,1481
surface_wr_p2 64,2857
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,3871
surface_wr_p2_stable 62,5000
p1_surface_matches 27,0000
p2_surface_matches 28,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0370
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9000
p2_confidence 0,9333
combined_confidence 0,9167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,3156
first_serve_won_diff -5,7571
second_serve_won_diff 3,2929
bp_saved_diff -0,8000
bp_converted_diff -3,6643
aces_per_match_diff 1,6032
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 5,0900
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 146,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 8,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5385
serve_consistency_p1 4,5293
serve_consistency_p2 6,5149
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,1899
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0205
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1449
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,4400
utr_p1 0,7741
utr_p2 0,7224
utr_advantage 3,0641
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22669
API ID 15345383
Gamdom ID 589660
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22669,
    "api_id": 15345383,
    "gamdom_id": 589660,
    "player1": "Alex Bolt",
    "player2": "Elias Ymer",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T00:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5333333333333332,
      "p2": 2.375
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.49,
      "p2": 2.65
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.47,
      "p2": 2.56
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3469,
    "prob_p2": 0.6531,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6531,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 171,
      "utr_singles": 14.53,
      "utr_ranking": 164,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.148148148148145,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 175,
      "utr_singles": 14.2,
      "utr_ranking": 284,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.53,
      "ranking": 164,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.2,
      "ranking": 284,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7741176470588236,
    "utr_p2": 0.7223529411764706,
    "utr_diff": 0.4399999999999995,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0118343195266273,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 2,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.7999999999999972,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.148148148148145,
    "surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
    "utr_advantage": 3.064066852367685,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -20,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.01176484157958643,
    "rank_advantage": 2,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5384615384615384,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -16.137566137566147,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.664285714285704,
    "p1_surface_matches": 27,
    "p2_surface_matches": 28,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.3156349206349276,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.6031746031746037,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.757142857142867,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.037037037037037035,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.529311978486696,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.514913323865366,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.1898559090885642,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.38709677419355,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.5,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.2928571428571445,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9642857142857143,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 5.090000000000003,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 146,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.020518518518518547,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1448571428571429,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -12.936827956989246,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}