Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Thiago Seyboth Wild
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alvaro Guillen Meza
Alvaro …: 52,9%
Thiago …: 47,1%
¿Por qué Alvaro Guillen Meza?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (34%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Alvaro … | Thiago … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,36 | 33,3% |
| Gamdom | 2,95 | 1,41 | 33,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,89 | 2,12 | 52,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Alvaro …: +21,7%
Thiago …: -21,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alvaro Guillen Meza
Ranking
#195
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Ranking
#217
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
1/6 = 16,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 23,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,1192 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,1126 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 42,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -117,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -16,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,1958 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 16,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 57,8947 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 33,7895 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 6,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3800 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3400 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -63,1967 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -73,9000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -41,9333 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -71,1667 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -24,0167 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -6,8333 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 27,6900 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 117,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,4889 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,6524 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,9768 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,8765 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5230 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,3103 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -16,6667 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22671
API ID
15345403
Gamdom ID
589653
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22671,
"api_id": 15345403,
"gamdom_id": 589653,
"player1": "Alvaro Guillen Meza",
"player2": "Thiago Seyboth Wild",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-12T23:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.3636363636363638
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.95,
"p2": 1.41
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.85,
"p2": 1.4
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5291,
"prob_p2": 0.4709,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5291,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 195,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 217,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 16.666666666666664,
"wr_surface_wins": 1,
"wr_surface_total": 6,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.0,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 1.1191709844559585,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 10.0,
"points_diff": 42,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -71.16666666666667,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 30.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.38,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 16.666666666666664,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -117,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.11258821877927944,
"rank_advantage": 23,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -16.666666666666664,
"bp_converted_diff": -24.016666666666666,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 6,
"serve_quality_diff": -63.19666666666666,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.488888888888889,
"aces_per_match_diff": -6.833333333333333,
"combined_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -73.89999999999999,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.652383459828883,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.976752524185879,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.8764703129879903,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 57.89473684210527,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.78947368421053,
"second_serve_won_diff": -41.93333333333333,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 27.690000000000005,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -16.666666666666664,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 60,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 117,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.523,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.31033333333333335,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.195789473684211,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}