Blake Ellis vs Stefano Travaglia
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stefano Travaglia
Blake …: 26,8% Stefano …: 73,2%
¿Por qué Stefano Travaglia?
UTR 14,06 vs 14,53 (-0,70) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Blake … Stefano … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,10 1,67 47,6%
Gamdom 2,13 1,72 46,9%
IA Fair Odds 3,74 1,37 26,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Blake …: -17,5% Stefano …: +17,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Blake Ellis
Ranking #444
UTR Rating 14,06 Pro
UTR Ranking #357
Forma L5 67% (3p)
Forma L10 67% (3p)
WR Hard 7/16 = 43,8%
Stefano Travaglia
Ranking #191
UTR Rating 14,53 Pro
UTR Ranking #165
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 7/12 = 58,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -311,0000
rank_ratio 0,3780
log_rank_ratio -0,9729
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -308,0000
best_rank_diff -440,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -14,5833
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,5875
surface_matches_ratio 1,3333
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 43,7500
surface_wr_p2 58,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 45,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,2500
p1_surface_matches 16,0000
p2_surface_matches 12,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1250
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5333
p2_confidence 0,4600
combined_confidence 0,4967
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,5367
first_serve_won_diff -4,1167
second_serve_won_diff -3,8167
bp_saved_diff 8,7833
bp_converted_diff 7,1167
aces_per_match_diff 0,3333
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0667
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 55,5556
momentum_p2 58,0000
momentum_diff -2,4444
weighted_momentum_diff -2,2967
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 368,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 65,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 4,9507
serve_consistency_p2 7,4573
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 14,1876
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2485
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2277
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,7000
utr_p1 0,6847
utr_p2 0,7671
utr_advantage -4,9400
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22673
API ID 15345375
Gamdom ID 589638
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22673,
    "api_id": 15345375,
    "gamdom_id": 589638,
    "player1": "Blake Ellis",
    "player2": "Stefano Travaglia",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.6666666666666665
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.13,
      "p2": 1.72
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.04,
      "p2": 1.73
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2676,
    "prob_p2": 0.7324,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7324,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 444,
      "utr_singles": 14.06,
      "utr_ranking": 357,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 43.75,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 16,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l5_matches": 3,
      "form_l10_matches": 3
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 191,
      "utr_singles": 14.53,
      "utr_ranking": 165,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.06,
      "ranking": 357,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.53,
      "ranking": 165,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6847058823529412,
    "utr_p2": 0.7670588235294117,
    "utr_diff": -0.6999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.378,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 55.55555555555556,
    "momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -308,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 8.783333333333331,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.06666666666666665,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -2.4444444444444358,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.46,
    "surface_wr_p1": 43.75,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.333333333333336,
    "utr_advantage": -4.940014114326035,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -440,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.9728610833625494,
    "rank_advantage": -311,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -14.583333333333336,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.116666666666667,
    "p1_surface_matches": 16,
    "p2_surface_matches": 12,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.5366666666666617,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.33333333333333304,
    "combined_confidence": 0.4966666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.116666666666674,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.125,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.950670144089764,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.457335906898543,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 14.187557465703847,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 45.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.25,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.81666666666667,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.3333333333333333,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -2.2966666666666526,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 368,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 65,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.24850000000000005,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.22766666666666668,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.5875,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}