Blake Ellis vs Stefano Travaglia
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stefano Travaglia
Blake …: 26,8%
Stefano …: 73,2%
¿Por qué Stefano Travaglia?
UTR 14,06 vs 14,53
(-0,70)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Blake … | Stefano … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,10 | 1,67 | 47,6% |
| Gamdom | 2,13 | 1,72 | 46,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,74 | 1,37 | 26,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Blake …: -17,5%
Stefano …: +17,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Blake Ellis
Ranking
#444
UTR Rating
14,06 Pro
UTR Ranking
#357
Forma L5
67% (3p)
Forma L10
67% (3p)
WR Hard
7/16 = 43,8%
Stefano Travaglia
Ranking
#191
UTR Rating
14,53 Pro
UTR Ranking
#165
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
7/12 = 58,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -311,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,3780 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,9729 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -308,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -440,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -14,5833 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -5,5875 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,3333 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 43,7500 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 58,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 45,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 56,2500 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 16,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 12,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1250 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4600 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4967 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,5367 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,1167 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,8167 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 8,7833 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 7,1167 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,3333 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0667 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 55,5556 | |
| momentum_p2 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,4444 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -2,2967 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 368,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 65,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,9507 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,4573 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 14,1876 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2485 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,2277 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,7000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,6847 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7671 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,9400 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22673
API ID
15345375
Gamdom ID
589638
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22673,
"api_id": 15345375,
"gamdom_id": 589638,
"player1": "Blake Ellis",
"player2": "Stefano Travaglia",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-12T23:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.6666666666666665
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.13,
"p2": 1.72
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.04,
"p2": 1.73
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2676,
"prob_p2": 0.7324,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7324,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 444,
"utr_singles": 14.06,
"utr_ranking": 357,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 43.75,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 16,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 66.66666666666666,
"form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
"form_l5_matches": 3,
"form_l10_matches": 3
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 191,
"utr_singles": 14.53,
"utr_ranking": 165,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 58.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 12,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 357,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.53,
"ranking": 165,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7670588235294117,
"utr_diff": -0.6999999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 0.378,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 55.55555555555556,
"momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -308,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 8.783333333333331,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.06666666666666665,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -2.4444444444444358,
"p1_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.46,
"surface_wr_p1": 43.75,
"surface_wr_p2": 58.333333333333336,
"utr_advantage": -4.940014114326035,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -440,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.9728610833625494,
"rank_advantage": -311,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -14.583333333333336,
"bp_converted_diff": 7.116666666666667,
"p1_surface_matches": 16,
"p2_surface_matches": 12,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.5366666666666617,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.33333333333333304,
"combined_confidence": 0.4966666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.116666666666674,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.125,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.950670144089764,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.457335906898543,
"surface_rank_synergy": 14.187557465703847,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 45.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.25,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.81666666666667,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.3333333333333333,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -2.2966666666666526,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 368,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 65,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.24850000000000005,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.22766666666666668,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.5875,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}