Daniel Elahi Galan vs Hugo Grenier
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 10:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Hugo Grenier
Daniel …: 49,7% Hugo …: 50,3%
¿Por qué Hugo Grenier?
UTR 14,35 vs 14,50 (-0,14) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daniel … Hugo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,10 1,67 47,6%
Gamdom 2,22 1,67 45,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,01 1,99 49,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Daniel …: +5,5% Hugo …: -5,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniel Elahi Galan
Ranking #154
UTR Rating 14,35 Pro
UTR Ranking #218
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 6/11 = 54,5%
Hugo Grenier
Ranking #179
UTR Rating 14,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #179
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 36/60 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 20,0000
rank_ratio 1,1290
log_rank_ratio 0,1214
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 70,0000
best_rank_diff 39,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -5,4545
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -4,3701
surface_matches_ratio 0,1833
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 54,5455
surface_wr_p2 60,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 59,3750
p1_surface_matches 11,0000
p2_surface_matches 60,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0909
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4467
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7233
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -8,9327
first_serve_won_diff -7,6617
second_serve_won_diff -1,4000
bp_saved_diff 9,2417
bp_converted_diff -17,9183
aces_per_match_diff -2,3409
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 20,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -32,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -24,2940
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 117,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 59,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4348
serve_consistency_p1 3,4438
serve_consistency_p2 5,7830
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,6620
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0255
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1200
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1400
utr_p1 0,7471
utr_p2 0,7635
utr_advantage -0,9709
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22677
API ID 15345379
Gamdom ID 589633
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22677,
    "api_id": 15345379,
    "gamdom_id": 589633,
    "player1": "Daniel Elahi Galan",
    "player2": "Hugo Grenier",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T06:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.6666666666666665
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.22,
      "p2": 1.67
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.18,
      "p2": 1.65
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.497,
    "prob_p2": 0.503,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.503,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 154,
      "utr_singles": 14.35,
      "utr_ranking": 218,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 54.54545454545454,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 11,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 179,
      "utr_singles": 14.5,
      "utr_ranking": 179,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 60,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.35,
      "ranking": 218,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.5,
      "ranking": 179,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7470588235294118,
    "utr_p2": 0.7635294117647059,
    "utr_diff": -0.14000000000000057,
    "rank_ratio": 1.1290322580645162,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 20.0,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": 70,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 9.241666666666667,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -32.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
    "utr_advantage": -0.9708737864077709,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 39,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.12136085700426753,
    "rank_advantage": 20,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.43478260869565216,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -5.45454545454546,
    "bp_converted_diff": -17.91833333333333,
    "p1_surface_matches": 11,
    "p2_surface_matches": 60,
    "serve_quality_diff": -8.93265151515152,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.340909090909091,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7233333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.661666666666669,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.09090909090909091,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.4437991684521503,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.782975708074045,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.6619683109323691,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.375,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.4000000000000057,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.18333333333333332,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -24.293999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 117,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 59,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.025454545454545396,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.370138888888888,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}