Elmer Moller vs Marc Polmans
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 05:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elmer Moller
Elmer …: 55,0% Marc …: 45,0%
¿Por qué Elmer Moller?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elmer … Marc … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,10 60,0%
Gamdom 1,77 2,06 56,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,82 2,22 55,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Elmer …: -0,8% Marc …: +0,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elmer Moller
Ranking #119
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 2/9 = 22,2%
Marc Polmans
Ranking #384
UTR Rating 13,93 Pro
UTR Ranking #417
Forma L5 33% (3p)
Forma L10 33% (3p)
WR Hard 4/8 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 272,0000
rank_ratio 3,2857
log_rank_ratio 1,1896
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 396,0000
best_rank_diff 14,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -27,7778
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,7094
surface_matches_ratio 1,1250
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 22,2222
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 32,9984
surface_wr_p2_stable 49,2308
p1_surface_matches 9,0000
p2_surface_matches 8,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,5556
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4200
p2_confidence 0,4067
combined_confidence 0,4133
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,2822
first_serve_won_diff 3,7000
second_serve_won_diff -7,2000
bp_saved_diff -1,9667
bp_converted_diff 14,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0139
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6667
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 33,3333
momentum_diff 66,6667
weighted_momentum_diff 48,9000
current_streak_diff 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 43,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 168,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3429
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 2,3377
serve_consistency_p2 2,7464
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -33,0440
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5498
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2720
elite_surface_amplifier -27,7778
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,6859
utr_p2 0,6859
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22678
API ID 15345385
Gamdom ID 589617
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22678,
    "api_id": 15345385,
    "gamdom_id": 589617,
    "player1": "Elmer Moller",
    "player2": "Marc Polmans",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T01:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6666666666666665,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.77,
      "p2": 2.06
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.75,
      "p2": 2.01
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.55,
    "prob_p2": 0.45,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.55,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 119,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 22.22222222222222,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 384,
      "utr_singles": 13.93,
      "utr_ranking": 417,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 8,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "form_l10_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "form_l5_matches": 3,
      "form_l10_matches": 3
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.93,
      "ranking": 417,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6858823529411765,
    "utr_p2": 0.6858823529411765,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 3.2857142857142856,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 33.33333333333333,
    "points_diff": 396,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.9666666666666686,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 66.66666666666666,
    "p1_confidence": 0.42,
    "p2_confidence": 0.4066666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 22.22222222222222,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 14,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.1895840668738364,
    "rank_advantage": 272,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -27.77777777777778,
    "bp_converted_diff": 14.000000000000007,
    "p1_surface_matches": 9,
    "p2_surface_matches": 8,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.2822222222222237,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.34285714285714286,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.01388888888888884,
    "combined_confidence": 0.41333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 6,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.6999999999999886,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.5555555555555556,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.3377130814122924,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 2.7464437298260087,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -33.04400185760657,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 32.99843014128729,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 49.230769230769226,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.200000000000003,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.125,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 48.9,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -27.77777777777778,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 43,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 168,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5497777777777778,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.272,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.709366823652535,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}