Jan Choinski vs Leandro Riedi
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 09:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Leandro Riedi
Jan …: 22,3% Leandro …: 77,7%
¿Por qué Leandro Riedi?
UTR 14,59 vs 14,86 (-0,21) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jan … Leandro … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,80 52,4%
Gamdom 1,99 1,82 50,3%
IA Fair Odds 4,48 1,29 22,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Jan …: -26,2% Leandro …: +26,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jan Choinski
Ranking #124
UTR Rating 14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #147
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 4/13 = 30,8%
Leandro Riedi
Ranking #180
UTR Rating 14,86 Pro
UTR Ranking #102
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 11/15 = 73,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 54,0000
rank_ratio 1,4390
log_rank_ratio 0,3640
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 172,0000
best_rank_diff -6,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -42,5641
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -16,1218
surface_matches_ratio 0,8667
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 30,7692
surface_wr_p2 73,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 35,2941
surface_wr_p2_stable 68,4211
p1_surface_matches 13,0000
p2_surface_matches 15,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3846
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4733
p2_confidence 0,5000
combined_confidence 0,4867
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -11,4582
first_serve_won_diff -5,6769
second_serve_won_diff -1,7923
bp_saved_diff -3,0385
bp_converted_diff 20,1769
aces_per_match_diff -4,0410
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -21,9700
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 45,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 133,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,2000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2500
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 3,3864
serve_consistency_p2 12,1540
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -15,4919
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2463
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2873
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2100
utr_p1 0,7776
utr_p2 0,8024
utr_advantage -1,4271
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22680
API ID 15345391
Gamdom ID 589618
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22680,
    "api_id": 15345391,
    "gamdom_id": 589618,
    "player1": "Jan Choinski",
    "player2": "Leandro Riedi",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T05:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9090909090909092,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.99,
      "p2": 1.82
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.98,
      "p2": 1.77
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2231,
    "prob_p2": 0.7769,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7769,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 124,
      "utr_singles": 14.59,
      "utr_ranking": 147,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 30.76923076923077,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 13,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 180,
      "utr_singles": 14.86,
      "utr_ranking": 102,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 73.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 15,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.59,
      "ranking": 147,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.86,
      "ranking": 102,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7776470588235294,
    "utr_p2": 0.8023529411764706,
    "utr_diff": -0.21000000000000085,
    "rank_ratio": 1.4390243902439024,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": 172,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.038461538461533,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -8.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.47333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_p1": 30.76923076923077,
    "surface_wr_p2": 73.33333333333333,
    "utr_advantage": -1.4271151885830844,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -6,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.3639653772014116,
    "rank_advantage": 54,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -42.564102564102555,
    "bp_converted_diff": 20.176923076923078,
    "p1_surface_matches": 13,
    "p2_surface_matches": 15,
    "serve_quality_diff": -11.458205128205122,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.2,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -4.041025641025641,
    "combined_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.676923076923089,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.38461538461538464,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.38640147895039,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.153951986452972,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -15.491859644983156,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 35.294117647058826,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 68.42105263157895,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.7923076923076877,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8666666666666667,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -21.97,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 45,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 133,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.24630769230769234,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28733333333333333,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.121775025799792,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}