Jan Choinski vs Leandro Riedi
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 09:25
13 Ene 2026, 09:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Leandro Riedi
Jan …: 22,3%
Leandro …: 77,7%
¿Por qué Leandro Riedi?
UTR 14,59 vs 14,86
(-0,21)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jan … | Leandro … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,91 | 1,80 | 52,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,99 | 1,82 | 50,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,48 | 1,29 | 22,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jan …: -26,2%
Leandro …: +26,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jan Choinski
Ranking
#124
UTR Rating
14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking
#147
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
4/13 = 30,8%
Leandro Riedi
Ranking
#180
UTR Rating
14,86 Pro
UTR Ranking
#102
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
11/15 = 73,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 54,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,4390 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,3640 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 172,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -6,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -42,5641 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -16,1218 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8667 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 30,7692 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 73,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 35,2941 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 68,4211 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 13,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 15,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3846 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4733 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,5000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4867 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -11,4582 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,6769 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,7923 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,0385 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 20,1769 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -4,0410 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -21,9700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 45,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 133,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,2000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2500 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,3864 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 12,1540 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -15,4919 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,2463 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2873 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7776 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8024 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,4271 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22680
API ID
15345391
Gamdom ID
589618
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22680,
"api_id": 15345391,
"gamdom_id": 589618,
"player1": "Jan Choinski",
"player2": "Leandro Riedi",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-13T05:25:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.9090909090909092,
"p2": 1.8
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.99,
"p2": 1.82
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.98,
"p2": 1.77
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2231,
"prob_p2": 0.7769,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7769,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"ranking": 124,
"utr_singles": 14.59,
"utr_ranking": 147,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 30.76923076923077,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 13,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 180,
"utr_singles": 14.86,
"utr_ranking": 102,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 73.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 15,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
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}
},
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},
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"ranking": 102,
"division": "Pro",
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}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": -0.21000000000000085,
"rank_ratio": 1.4390243902439024,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 52.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": 172,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.038461538461533,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -8.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.47333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.5,
"surface_wr_p1": 30.76923076923077,
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"utr_advantage": -1.4271151885830844,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -6,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.3639653772014116,
"rank_advantage": 54,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -42.564102564102555,
"bp_converted_diff": 20.176923076923078,
"p1_surface_matches": 13,
"p2_surface_matches": 15,
"serve_quality_diff": -11.458205128205122,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.2,
"aces_per_match_diff": -4.041025641025641,
"combined_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.676923076923089,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.38461538461538464,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.38640147895039,
"serve_consistency_p2": 12.153951986452972,
"surface_rank_synergy": -15.491859644983156,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 35.294117647058826,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 68.42105263157895,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.7923076923076877,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8666666666666667,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -21.97,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 45,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 133,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.24630769230769234,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28733333333333333,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.121775025799792,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}