Li Tu vs Rafael Jodar
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 05:55
13 Ene 2026, 05:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Rafael Jodar
Li …: 13,7%
Rafael …: 86,3%
¿Por qué Rafael Jodar?
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Li … | Rafael … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 5,50 | 1,14 | 18,2% |
| Gamdom | 6,00 | 1,13 | 16,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 7,32 | 1,16 | 13,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Li …: -3,5%
Rafael …: +3,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Li Tu
Ranking
#394
UTR Rating
14,22 Pro
UTR Ranking
#276
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
9/23 = 39,1%
Rafael Jodar
Ranking
#150
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
67% (6p)
WR Hard
22/30 = 73,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -174,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,4867 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,7201 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -204,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 5,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -34,2029 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -26,3653 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7667 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 39,1304 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 73,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 40,7407 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 70,5882 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,2174 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,6029 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,9000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -8,5000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -12,7500 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,3014 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 38,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 21,0500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 24,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 24,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6053 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2500 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,9701 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,3656 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 24,6280 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0653 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0593 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7424 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7424 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22684
API ID
15345407
Gamdom ID
589640
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22684,
"api_id": 15345407,
"gamdom_id": 589640,
"player1": "Li Tu",
"player2": "Rafael Jodar",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-13T01:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 5.5,
"p2": 1.1428571428571428
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 6.0,
"p2": 1.13
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 5.85,
"p2": 1.12
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1366,
"prob_p2": 0.8634,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8634,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 394,
"utr_singles": 14.22,
"utr_ranking": 276,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 39.130434782608695,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 150,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 73.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 6
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.22,
"ranking": 276,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7423529411764707,
"utr_p2": 0.7423529411764707,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.48672566371681414,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": -204,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 37.99999999999997,
"p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 39.130434782608695,
"surface_wr_p2": 73.33333333333333,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 5,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.7200546334798696,
"rank_advantage": -174,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -34.20289855072463,
"bp_converted_diff": -12.75,
"p1_surface_matches": 23,
"p2_surface_matches": 30,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.602898550724639,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6052631578947368,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.3014492753623186,
"combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.9000000000000057,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.21739130434782608,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.9700686581933478,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.365564269217122,
"surface_rank_synergy": 24.62795557989119,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.74074074074074,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 70.58823529411765,
"second_serve_won_diff": -8.5,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7666666666666667,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 21.049999999999983,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 24,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 24,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06530434782608702,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05933333333333324,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -26.36528685548294,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -3
},
"feature_importance": {}
}