Li Tu vs Rafael Jodar
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 05:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Rafael Jodar
Li …: 13,7% Rafael …: 86,3%
¿Por qué Rafael Jodar?
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Li … Rafael … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 5,50 1,14 18,2%
Gamdom 6,00 1,13 16,7%
IA Fair Odds 7,32 1,16 13,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Li …: -3,5% Rafael …: +3,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Li Tu
Ranking #394
UTR Rating 14,22 Pro
UTR Ranking #276
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 9/23 = 39,1%
Rafael Jodar
Ranking #150
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 67% (6p)
WR Hard 22/30 = 73,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -174,0000
rank_ratio 0,4867
log_rank_ratio -0,7201
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -204,0000
best_rank_diff 5,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -34,2029
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -26,3653
surface_matches_ratio 0,7667
surface_tournaments_won_diff -3,0000
surface_wr_p1 39,1304
surface_wr_p2 73,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 40,7407
surface_wr_p2_stable 70,5882
p1_surface_matches 23,0000
p2_surface_matches 30,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2174
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,6029
first_serve_won_diff -0,9000
second_serve_won_diff -8,5000
bp_saved_diff 1,0000
bp_converted_diff -12,7500
aces_per_match_diff 2,3014
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff 38,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 21,0500
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 24,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 24,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6053
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2500
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 3,9701
serve_consistency_p2 10,3656
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 24,6280
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0653
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0593
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,7424
utr_p2 0,7424
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22684
API ID 15345407
Gamdom ID 589640
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22684,
    "api_id": 15345407,
    "gamdom_id": 589640,
    "player1": "Li Tu",
    "player2": "Rafael Jodar",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T01:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 5.5,
      "p2": 1.1428571428571428
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 6.0,
      "p2": 1.13
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 5.85,
      "p2": 1.12
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1366,
    "prob_p2": 0.8634,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8634,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 394,
      "utr_singles": 14.22,
      "utr_ranking": 276,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 39.130434782608695,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 150,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 73.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.22,
      "ranking": 276,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7423529411764707,
    "utr_p2": 0.7423529411764707,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.48672566371681414,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": -204,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 37.99999999999997,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 39.130434782608695,
    "surface_wr_p2": 73.33333333333333,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 5,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.7200546334798696,
    "rank_advantage": -174,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -34.20289855072463,
    "bp_converted_diff": -12.75,
    "p1_surface_matches": 23,
    "p2_surface_matches": 30,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.602898550724639,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6052631578947368,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.3014492753623186,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.9000000000000057,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.21739130434782608,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.9700686581933478,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.365564269217122,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 24.62795557989119,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.74074074074074,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 70.58823529411765,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -8.5,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7666666666666667,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 21.049999999999983,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 24,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 24,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06530434782608702,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05933333333333324,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -26.36528685548294,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}