Lorenzo Giustino vs Francesco Maestrelli
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Francesco Maestrelli
Lorenzo …: 18,2%
Francesco …: 81,8%
¿Por qué Francesco Maestrelli?
UTR 14,45 vs 14,34
(+0,11)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Francesco … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,10 | 1,67 | 47,6% |
| Gamdom | 2,19 | 1,68 | 45,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 5,50 | 1,22 | 18,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: -26,1%
Francesco …: +26,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Giustino
Ranking
#211
UTR Rating
14,45 Pro
UTR Ranking
#184
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (6p)
WR Hard
2/6 = 33,3%
Francesco Maestrelli
Ranking
#141
UTR Rating
14,34 Pro
UTR Ranking
#224
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
17/26 = 65,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -75,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6462 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,4366 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -165,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 10,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -32,0513 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -14,7613 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,2308 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,3846 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 39,6522 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 6,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3800 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6233 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -7,6595 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,0462 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,5231 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,2615 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -4,3769 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,5897 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 12,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 8,4510 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 46,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7143 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,6971 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,7125 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 13,9938 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0917 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0788 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7588 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7459 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,7642 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22686
API ID
15345399
Gamdom ID
589647
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22686,
"api_id": 15345399,
"gamdom_id": 589647,
"player1": "Lorenzo Giustino",
"player2": "Francesco Maestrelli",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-12T23:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.6666666666666665
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.19,
"p2": 1.68
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.15,
"p2": 1.66
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1818,
"prob_p2": 0.8182,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8182,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 211,
"utr_singles": 14.45,
"utr_ranking": 184,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 2,
"wr_surface_total": 6,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 6
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 141,
"utr_singles": 14.34,
"utr_ranking": 224,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.38461538461539,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.45,
"ranking": 184,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.34,
"ranking": 224,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7588235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.7458823529411764,
"utr_diff": 0.10999999999999943,
"rank_ratio": 0.6462264150943396,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
"points_diff": -165,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.261538461538457,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 11.999999999999996,
"p1_confidence": 0.38,
"p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.38461538461539,
"utr_advantage": 0.7641542202153486,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 10,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.4366053488438875,
"rank_advantage": -75,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -32.05128205128206,
"bp_converted_diff": -4.376923076923077,
"p1_surface_matches": 6,
"p2_surface_matches": 26,
"serve_quality_diff": -7.659487179487165,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.58974358974359,
"combined_confidence": 0.6233333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.04615384615384244,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.697069735883723,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.712545857549985,
"surface_rank_synergy": 13.993761180893834,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 39.65217391304348,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.33333333333333,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.5230769230769141,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.23076923076923078,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 8.450999999999993,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 46,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.09166666666666679,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.0788461538461539,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.76125603864734,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}