Lorenzo Giustino vs Francesco Maestrelli
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Francesco Maestrelli
Lorenzo …: 18,2% Francesco …: 81,8%
¿Por qué Francesco Maestrelli?
UTR 14,45 vs 14,34 (+0,11) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Francesco … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,10 1,67 47,6%
Gamdom 2,19 1,68 45,7%
IA Fair Odds 5,50 1,22 18,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: -26,1% Francesco …: +26,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Giustino
Ranking #211
UTR Rating 14,45 Pro
UTR Ranking #184
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (6p)
WR Hard 2/6 = 33,3%
Francesco Maestrelli
Ranking #141
UTR Rating 14,34 Pro
UTR Ranking #224
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 17/26 = 65,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -75,0000
rank_ratio 0,6462
log_rank_ratio -0,4366
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -165,0000
best_rank_diff 10,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -32,0513
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -14,7613
surface_matches_ratio 0,2308
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 65,3846
surface_wr_p1_stable 39,6522
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,3333
p1_surface_matches 6,0000
p2_surface_matches 26,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3800
p2_confidence 0,8667
combined_confidence 0,6233
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,6595
first_serve_won_diff -0,0462
second_serve_won_diff -1,5231
bp_saved_diff 3,2615
bp_converted_diff -4,3769
aces_per_match_diff -3,5897
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 28,0000
momentum_diff 12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 8,4510
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 46,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 8,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7143
serve_consistency_p1 6,6971
serve_consistency_p2 9,7125
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 13,9938
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0917
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0788
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1100
utr_p1 0,7588
utr_p2 0,7459
utr_advantage 0,7642
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22686
API ID 15345399
Gamdom ID 589647
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22686,
    "api_id": 15345399,
    "gamdom_id": 589647,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Giustino",
    "player2": "Francesco Maestrelli",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.6666666666666665
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.19,
      "p2": 1.68
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.15,
      "p2": 1.66
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1818,
    "prob_p2": 0.8182,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8182,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 211,
      "utr_singles": 14.45,
      "utr_ranking": 184,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 6,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 141,
      "utr_singles": 14.34,
      "utr_ranking": 224,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.38461538461539,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.45,
      "ranking": 184,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.34,
      "ranking": 224,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7588235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.7458823529411764,
    "utr_diff": 0.10999999999999943,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6462264150943396,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": -165,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.261538461538457,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 11.999999999999996,
    "p1_confidence": 0.38,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.38461538461539,
    "utr_advantage": 0.7641542202153486,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 10,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.4366053488438875,
    "rank_advantage": -75,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -32.05128205128206,
    "bp_converted_diff": -4.376923076923077,
    "p1_surface_matches": 6,
    "p2_surface_matches": 26,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.659487179487165,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.58974358974359,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6233333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.04615384615384244,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.697069735883723,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.712545857549985,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 13.993761180893834,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 39.65217391304348,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.33333333333333,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.5230769230769141,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.23076923076923078,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 8.450999999999993,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 46,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.09166666666666679,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.0788461538461539,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.76125603864734,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}