Mackenzie McDonald vs Dmitry Popko
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 08:45
13 Ene 2026, 08:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mackenzie McDonald
Mackenzie …: 67,5%
Dmitry …: 32,5%
¿Por qué Mackenzie McDonald?
UTR 14,76 vs 13,91
(+0,92)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Mackenzie … | Dmitry … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,17 | 5,00 | 85,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,17 | 5,00 | 85,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,48 | 3,08 | 67,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Mackenzie …: -13,5%
Dmitry …: +13,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mackenzie McDonald
Ranking
#113
UTR Rating
14,76 Pro
UTR Ranking
#110
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
22/41 = 53,7%
Dmitry Popko
Ranking
#222
UTR Rating
13,91 Pro
UTR Ranking
#442
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
6/16 = 37,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 109,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,9732 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,6797 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 291,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 118,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 16,1585 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 10,2222 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,5625 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 53,6585 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 37,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 16,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0732 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,5333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,1931 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,7625 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,0162 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,4341 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,8550 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,9848 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 14,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 11,7800 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 69,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 130,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6410 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4286 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,4188 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,4856 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 10,9824 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0724 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0160 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 16,1585 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,9200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8012 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,6929 | |
| utr_advantage | 6,4111 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22687
API ID
15345364
Gamdom ID
589629
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22687,
"api_id": 15345364,
"gamdom_id": 589629,
"player1": "Mackenzie McDonald",
"player2": "Dmitry Popko",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-13T04:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.1666666666666667,
"p2": 5.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.17,
"p2": 5.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.17,
"p2": 4.81
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6754,
"prob_p2": 0.3246,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6754,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 113,
"utr_singles": 14.76,
"utr_ranking": 110,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 222,
"utr_singles": 13.91,
"utr_ranking": 442,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 37.5,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 16,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.76,
"ranking": 110,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 13.91,
"ranking": 442,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8011764705882354,
"utr_p2": 0.6929411764705883,
"utr_diff": 0.9199999999999999,
"rank_ratio": 1.9732142857142858,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 52.0,
"momentum_p2": 38.0,
"points_diff": 291,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.4341463414634106,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 14.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
"surface_wr_p2": 37.5,
"utr_advantage": 6.411149825783971,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 118,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.6796638302226583,
"rank_advantage": 109,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.42857142857142855,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 16.15853658536586,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.855030487804875,
"p1_surface_matches": 41,
"p2_surface_matches": 16,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.193109756097563,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6410256410256411,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.9847560975609753,
"combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.7625000000000028,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.418812442817032,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.4855913430008,
"surface_rank_synergy": 10.982372866402715,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.0161585365853654,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.5625,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 11.780000000000008,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 16.15853658536586,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 69,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 130,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.07241463414634142,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.016000000000000014,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.222222222222223,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}