Mackenzie McDonald vs Dmitry Popko
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 08:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mackenzie McDonald
Mackenzie …: 67,5% Dmitry …: 32,5%
¿Por qué Mackenzie McDonald?
UTR 14,76 vs 13,91 (+0,92) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mackenzie … Dmitry … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,17 5,00 85,7%
Gamdom 1,17 5,00 85,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,48 3,08 67,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Mackenzie …: -13,5% Dmitry …: +13,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mackenzie McDonald
Ranking #113
UTR Rating 14,76 Pro
UTR Ranking #110
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 22/41 = 53,7%
Dmitry Popko
Ranking #222
UTR Rating 13,91 Pro
UTR Ranking #442
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 6/16 = 37,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 109,0000
rank_ratio 1,9732
log_rank_ratio 0,6797
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 291,0000
best_rank_diff 118,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 16,1585
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,2222
surface_matches_ratio 2,5625
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,6585
surface_wr_p2 37,5000
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,0000
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 16,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0732
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,5333
combined_confidence 0,7667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,1931
first_serve_won_diff -0,7625
second_serve_won_diff 2,0162
bp_saved_diff 3,4341
bp_converted_diff 5,8550
aces_per_match_diff 1,9848
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 38,0000
momentum_diff 14,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 11,7800
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 69,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 130,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6410
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4286
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 9,4188
serve_consistency_p2 8,4856
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 10,9824
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0724
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0160
elite_surface_amplifier 16,1585
UTR
utr_diff 0,9200
utr_p1 0,8012
utr_p2 0,6929
utr_advantage 6,4111
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22687
API ID 15345364
Gamdom ID 589629
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22687,
    "api_id": 15345364,
    "gamdom_id": 589629,
    "player1": "Mackenzie McDonald",
    "player2": "Dmitry Popko",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T04:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.1666666666666667,
      "p2": 5.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.17,
      "p2": 5.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.17,
      "p2": 4.81
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6754,
    "prob_p2": 0.3246,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6754,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 113,
      "utr_singles": 14.76,
      "utr_ranking": 110,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 222,
      "utr_singles": 13.91,
      "utr_ranking": 442,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 37.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 16,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.76,
      "ranking": 110,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.91,
      "ranking": 442,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8011764705882354,
    "utr_p2": 0.6929411764705883,
    "utr_diff": 0.9199999999999999,
    "rank_ratio": 1.9732142857142858,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 38.0,
    "points_diff": 291,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.4341463414634106,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 14.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
    "surface_wr_p2": 37.5,
    "utr_advantage": 6.411149825783971,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 118,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.6796638302226583,
    "rank_advantage": 109,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.42857142857142855,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 16.15853658536586,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.855030487804875,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 16,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.193109756097563,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6410256410256411,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.9847560975609753,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.7625000000000028,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.418812442817032,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.4855913430008,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 10.982372866402715,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.0161585365853654,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.5625,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 11.780000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 16.15853658536586,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 69,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 130,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.07241463414634142,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.016000000000000014,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.222222222222223,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}