Nicolas Moreno de Alboran vs Vilius Gaubas
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 07:50
13 Ene 2026, 07:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Vilius Gaubas
Nicolas …: 18,8%
Vilius …: 81,2%
¿Por qué Vilius Gaubas?
UTR 14,19 vs 14,46
(-0,15)
— Niveles similares
Nicolas …
W4-L6
40% WR
vs UTR 14,8
L1
Vilius …
Sin datos
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (37%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Nicolas … | Vilius … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,62 | 2,20 | 61,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,69 | 2,18 | 59,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 5,32 | 1,23 | 18,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Nicolas …: -38,9%
Vilius …: +38,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Nicolas Moreno de Alboran
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
14,19 Pro
UTR Ranking
#286
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (6p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Vilius Gaubas
Ranking
#129
UTR Rating
14,46 Pro
UTR Ranking
#182
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
4/10 = 40,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Nicolas Moreno de Alboran
Record 2025
4W - 6L (40%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
14,8
Últimos 5:
L
W
L
W
L
Vilius Gaubas
Sin datos UTR v4
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -371,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2580 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,3548 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -469,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -372,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 2,6190 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 42,8571 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 10,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -46,6820 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -60,7000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -46,4400 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -56,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -47,1600 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,2000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 7,7200 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 235,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,3783 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,7647 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 54,1918 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1290 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,4710 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7435 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7612 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,0420 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22689
API ID
15345384
Gamdom ID
589623
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22689,
"api_id": 15345384,
"gamdom_id": 589623,
"player1": "Nicolas Moreno de Alboran",
"player2": "Vilius Gaubas",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-13T03:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.6153846153846154,
"p2": 2.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.69,
"p2": 2.18
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.76,
"p2": 2.11
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1879,
"prob_p2": 0.8121,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8121,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 14.19,
"utr_ranking": 286,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 4,
"utr_v4_losses": 6,
"utr_v4_wr": 40.0,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 14.75,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 14.52,
"opponent_name": "Lukas KLEIN"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 14.0,
"opponent_name": "Fabio Fognini"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 14.53,
"opponent_name": "Colton Smith"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 15.06,
"opponent_name": "Christopher O'Connell"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 14.83,
"opponent_name": "Aleksandar Vukic"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:59.614500+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 6
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 129,
"utr_singles": 14.46,
"utr_ranking": 182,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 40.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 10,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.19,
"ranking": 286,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.46,
"ranking": 182,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7435294117647059,
"utr_p2": 0.7611764705882353,
"utr_diff": -0.15000000000000036,
"rank_ratio": 0.258,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.0,
"points_diff": -469,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -56.0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 10.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 40.0,
"utr_advantage": -1.0420284821118468,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -372,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.3547956940605197,
"rank_advantage": -371,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -40.0,
"bp_converted_diff": -47.160000000000004,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 10,
"serve_quality_diff": -46.681999999999995,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.2,
"combined_confidence": 0.3666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -60.7,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.37829880946082,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.764740822878877,
"surface_rank_synergy": 54.191827762420786,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.857142857142854,
"second_serve_won_diff": -46.44,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 7.719999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 235,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 60,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.129,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.471,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.6190476190476204,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}