Nicolas Moreno de Alboran vs Vilius Gaubas
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 07:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Vilius Gaubas
Nicolas …: 18,8% Vilius …: 81,2%
¿Por qué Vilius Gaubas?
UTR 14,19 vs 14,46 (-0,15) — Niveles similares
Nicolas …
W4-L6
40% WR
vs UTR 14,8
L1
Vilius …
Sin datos
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (37%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Nicolas … Vilius … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,20 61,9%
Gamdom 1,69 2,18 59,2%
IA Fair Odds 5,32 1,23 18,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Nicolas …: -38,9% Vilius …: +38,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Nicolas Moreno de Alboran
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 14,19 Pro
UTR Ranking #286
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (6p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Vilius Gaubas
Ranking #129
UTR Rating 14,46 Pro
UTR Ranking #182
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 4/10 = 40,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Nicolas Moreno de Alboran
Record 2025 4W - 6L (40%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 14,8
Últimos 5:
L W L W L
Vilius Gaubas
Sin datos UTR v4
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -371,0000
rank_ratio 0,2580
log_rank_ratio -1,3548
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -469,0000
best_rank_diff -372,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -40,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 2,6190
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 40,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 42,8571
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 10,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,4333
combined_confidence 0,3667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -46,6820
first_serve_won_diff -60,7000
second_serve_won_diff -46,4400
bp_saved_diff -56,0000
bp_converted_diff -47,1600
aces_per_match_diff -1,2000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 7,7200
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 235,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 60,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 3,3783
serve_consistency_p2 6,7647
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 54,1918
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1290
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,4710
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1500
utr_p1 0,7435
utr_p2 0,7612
utr_advantage -1,0420
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22689
API ID 15345384
Gamdom ID 589623
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22689,
    "api_id": 15345384,
    "gamdom_id": 589623,
    "player1": "Nicolas Moreno de Alboran",
    "player2": "Vilius Gaubas",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T03:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6153846153846154,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.69,
      "p2": 2.18
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.76,
      "p2": 2.11
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1879,
    "prob_p2": 0.8121,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8121,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 14.19,
      "utr_ranking": 286,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 4,
      "utr_v4_losses": 6,
      "utr_v4_wr": 40.0,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 14.75,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.52,
          "opponent_name": "Lukas KLEIN"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 14.0,
          "opponent_name": "Fabio Fognini"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.53,
          "opponent_name": "Colton Smith"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 15.06,
          "opponent_name": "Christopher O'Connell"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.83,
          "opponent_name": "Aleksandar Vukic"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:59.614500+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 129,
      "utr_singles": 14.46,
      "utr_ranking": 182,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 40.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 10,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.19,
      "ranking": 286,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.46,
      "ranking": 182,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7435294117647059,
    "utr_p2": 0.7611764705882353,
    "utr_diff": -0.15000000000000036,
    "rank_ratio": 0.258,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.0,
    "points_diff": -469,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -56.0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 40.0,
    "utr_advantage": -1.0420284821118468,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -372,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.3547956940605197,
    "rank_advantage": -371,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -40.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": -47.160000000000004,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 10,
    "serve_quality_diff": -46.681999999999995,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.2,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -60.7,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.37829880946082,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.764740822878877,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 54.191827762420786,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.857142857142854,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -46.44,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 7.719999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 235,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 60,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.129,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.471,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.6190476190476204,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}