Otto Virtanen vs Nicolas Mejia
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 04:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Otto Virtanen
Otto …: 65,4% Nicolas …: 34,7%
¿Por qué Otto Virtanen?
UTR 14,87 vs 14,29 (+0,61) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Otto … Nicolas … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,40 2,75 71,4%
Gamdom 1,41 2,95 70,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,53 2,89 65,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Otto …: -0,9% Nicolas …: +0,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Otto Virtanen
Ranking #126
UTR Rating 14,87 Pro
UTR Ranking #100
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 16/30 = 53,3%
Nicolas Mejia
Ranking #169
UTR Rating 14,29 Pro
UTR Ranking #239
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 43% (7p)
WR Hard 15/33 = 45,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 44,0000
rank_ratio 1,3548
log_rank_ratio 0,3037
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 144,0000
best_rank_diff 77,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 7,8788
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 6,9952
surface_matches_ratio 0,9091
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,3333
surface_wr_p2 45,4545
surface_wr_p1_stable 52,9412
surface_wr_p2_stable 45,9459
p1_surface_matches 30,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0667
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 18,5160
first_serve_won_diff 8,8770
second_serve_won_diff 5,8139
bp_saved_diff 5,5667
bp_converted_diff 7,7394
aces_per_match_diff 6,1667
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 10,8000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 64,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 180,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5962
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4167
serve_consistency_p1 3,8396
serve_consistency_p2 16,3214
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,3926
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0107
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0015
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,6100
utr_p1 0,8047
utr_p2 0,7329
utr_advantage 4,1968
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22690
API ID 15345392
Gamdom ID 589657
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22690,
    "api_id": 15345392,
    "gamdom_id": 589657,
    "player1": "Otto Virtanen",
    "player2": "Nicolas Mejia",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T00:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.41,
      "p2": 2.95
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.38,
      "p2": 2.95
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6535,
    "prob_p2": 0.3465,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6535,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 126,
      "utr_singles": 14.87,
      "utr_ranking": 100,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 169,
      "utr_singles": 14.29,
      "utr_ranking": 239,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 45.45454545454545,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 42.857142857142854,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 7
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.87,
      "ranking": 100,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.29,
      "ranking": 239,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8047058823529412,
    "utr_p2": 0.7329411764705883,
    "utr_diff": 0.6099999999999994,
    "rank_ratio": 1.3548387096774193,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.0,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": 144,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.566666666666663,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 8.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2": 45.45454545454545,
    "utr_advantage": 4.1967664258685895,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 77,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.303682413798222,
    "rank_advantage": 44,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4166666666666667,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 7.8787878787878824,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.739393939393942,
    "p1_surface_matches": 30,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": 18.51599999999999,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5961538461538461,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 6.166666666666666,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 8.876969696969681,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.06666666666666667,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.8396479960603678,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 16.32143308474002,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.3926493208344772,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 52.94117647058824,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 45.94594594594595,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 5.813939393939393,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9090909090909091,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 10.799999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 64,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 180,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.010666666666666713,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.0014545454545454306,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 6.995230524642288,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}