Sho Shimabukuro vs Alex Molcan
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 08:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex Molcan
Sho …: 42,4% Alex …: 57,6%
¿Por qué Alex Molcan?
UTR 14,51 vs 14,59 (-0,17) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sho … Alex … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,10 60,0%
Gamdom 1,71 2,15 58,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,36 1,74 42,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Sho …: -13,3% Alex …: +13,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sho Shimabukuro
Ranking #144
UTR Rating 14,51 Pro
UTR Ranking #172
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 30/47 = 63,8%
Alex Molcan
Ranking #206
UTR Rating 14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #149
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 38% (8p)
WR Hard 7/11 = 63,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 55,0000
rank_ratio 1,3741
log_rank_ratio 0,3178
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 128,0000
best_rank_diff -97,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,1934
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 1,9856
surface_matches_ratio 4,2727
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 63,8298
surface_wr_p2 63,6364
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,7451
surface_wr_p2_stable 60,0000
p1_surface_matches 47,0000
p2_surface_matches 11,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2766
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,4467
combined_confidence 0,7233
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 6,5687
first_serve_won_diff 3,2331
second_serve_won_diff -2,5772
bp_saved_diff 8,3002
bp_converted_diff 4,2006
aces_per_match_diff 2,8627
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 28,0000
momentum_p2 32,0000
momentum_diff -4,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -8,8200
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 48,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 71,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5833
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7500
serve_consistency_p1 7,8500
serve_consistency_p2 7,1995
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0615
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0833
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1914
elite_surface_amplifier 0,1934
UTR
utr_diff -0,1700
utr_p1 0,7529
utr_p2 0,7729
utr_advantage -1,1736
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22695
API ID 15345373
Gamdom ID 589636
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22695,
    "api_id": 15345373,
    "gamdom_id": 589636,
    "player1": "Sho Shimabukuro",
    "player2": "Alex Molcan",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T04:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6666666666666665,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.71,
      "p2": 2.15
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.7,
      "p2": 2.07
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4241,
    "prob_p2": 0.5759,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5759,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 144,
      "utr_singles": 14.51,
      "utr_ranking": 172,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.829787234042556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 47,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 206,
      "utr_singles": 14.59,
      "utr_ranking": 149,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.63636363636363,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 11,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 37.5,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.51,
      "ranking": 172,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.59,
      "ranking": 149,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7529411764705882,
    "utr_p2": 0.7729411764705882,
    "utr_diff": -0.16999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 1.3741496598639455,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 32.0,
    "points_diff": 128,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 8.300193423597669,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -3.9999999999999964,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 63.829787234042556,
    "surface_wr_p2": 63.63636363636363,
    "utr_advantage": -1.1736278909216427,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -97,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.31783511062246844,
    "rank_advantage": 55,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5833333333333334,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0.19342359767892248,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.200580270793033,
    "p1_surface_matches": 47,
    "p2_surface_matches": 11,
    "serve_quality_diff": 6.568723404255309,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.862669245647969,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7233333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.233075435203091,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2765957446808511,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.849997622894295,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.1994674625891735,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.06147681056527615,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.745098039215684,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.5771760154738885,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 4.2727272727272725,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -8.82,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.19342359767892248,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 48,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 71,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08329787234042563,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1913636363636363,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.985620915032678,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}