Sho Shimabukuro vs Alex Molcan
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 08:45
13 Ene 2026, 08:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex Molcan
Sho …: 42,4%
Alex …: 57,6%
¿Por qué Alex Molcan?
UTR 14,51 vs 14,59
(-0,17)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sho … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,67 | 2,10 | 60,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,71 | 2,15 | 58,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,36 | 1,74 | 42,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sho …: -13,3%
Alex …: +13,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sho Shimabukuro
Ranking
#144
UTR Rating
14,51 Pro
UTR Ranking
#172
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
30/47 = 63,8%
Alex Molcan
Ranking
#206
UTR Rating
14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking
#149
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
38% (8p)
WR Hard
7/11 = 63,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 55,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,3741 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,3178 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 128,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -97,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,1934 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 1,9856 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 4,2727 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 63,8298 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 63,6364 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,7451 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 60,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 47,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 11,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2766 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4467 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7233 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 6,5687 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,2331 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,5772 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 8,3002 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,2006 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,8627 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -4,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -8,8200 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 48,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 71,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5833 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7500 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,8500 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,1995 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0615 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0833 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1914 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,1934 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7529 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7729 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,1736 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22695
API ID
15345373
Gamdom ID
589636
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22695,
"api_id": 15345373,
"gamdom_id": 589636,
"player1": "Sho Shimabukuro",
"player2": "Alex Molcan",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-13T04:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.6666666666666665,
"p2": 2.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.71,
"p2": 2.15
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.7,
"p2": 2.07
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4241,
"prob_p2": 0.5759,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5759,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 144,
"utr_singles": 14.51,
"utr_ranking": 172,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.829787234042556,
"wr_surface_wins": 30,
"wr_surface_total": 47,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 206,
"utr_singles": 14.59,
"utr_ranking": 149,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.63636363636363,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 11,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 37.5,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 8
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.51,
"ranking": 172,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.59,
"ranking": 149,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7529411764705882,
"utr_p2": 0.7729411764705882,
"utr_diff": -0.16999999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 1.3741496598639455,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 32.0,
"points_diff": 128,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 8.300193423597669,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -3.9999999999999964,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 63.829787234042556,
"surface_wr_p2": 63.63636363636363,
"utr_advantage": -1.1736278909216427,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -97,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.31783511062246844,
"rank_advantage": 55,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5833333333333334,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 0.19342359767892248,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.200580270793033,
"p1_surface_matches": 47,
"p2_surface_matches": 11,
"serve_quality_diff": 6.568723404255309,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.862669245647969,
"combined_confidence": 0.7233333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.233075435203091,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2765957446808511,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.849997622894295,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.1994674625891735,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.06147681056527615,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.745098039215684,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.5771760154738885,
"surface_matches_ratio": 4.2727272727272725,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -8.82,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.19342359767892248,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 48,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 71,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08329787234042563,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1913636363636363,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.985620915032678,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}