Carole Monnet vs Elena Micic
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 05:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carole Monnet
Carole …: 69,2% Elena …: 30,8%
¿Por qué Carole Monnet?
UTR 11,65 vs 10,82 (+0,91) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Carole … Elena … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,25 3,75 80,0%
Gamdom 1,31 3,65 76,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,44 3,25 69,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Carole …: -5,8% Elena …: +5,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carole Monnet
Ranking #175
UTR Rating 11,65 Pro
UTR Ranking #197
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 2/3 = 66,7%
Elena Micic
Ranking #352
UTR Rating 10,82 Pro
UTR Ranking #600
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (5p)
WR Hard 2/4 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 175,0000
rank_ratio 2,0174
log_rank_ratio 0,7018
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 224,0000
best_rank_diff 189,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 16,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 3,9358
surface_matches_ratio 0,7500
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 66,6667
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,3534
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 3,0000
p2_surface_matches 4,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3400
p2_confidence 0,3533
combined_confidence 0,3467
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,1867
first_serve_won_diff -10,4000
second_serve_won_diff 0,6000
bp_saved_diff -7,7000
bp_converted_diff 7,2000
aces_per_match_diff -0,5833
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 28,0000
momentum_diff -18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -14,2500
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 9,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 5,4423
serve_consistency_p2 9,6663
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 11,6972
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0083
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1750
elite_surface_amplifier 16,6667
UTR
utr_diff 0,9100
utr_p1 0,4376
utr_p2 0,3306
utr_advantage 8,0781
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22706
API ID 15345241
Gamdom ID 589565
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22706,
    "api_id": 15345241,
    "gamdom_id": 589565,
    "player1": "Carole Monnet",
    "player2": "Elena Micic",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T01:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.25,
      "p2": 3.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.31,
      "p2": 3.65
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.4
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6922,
    "prob_p2": 0.3078,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6922,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 175,
      "utr_singles": 11.65,
      "utr_ranking": 197,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 352,
      "utr_singles": 10.82,
      "utr_ranking": 600,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 4,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.65,
      "ranking": 197,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 10.82,
      "ranking": 600,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4376470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.3305882352941177,
    "utr_diff": 0.9100000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 2.0174418604651163,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 224,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -7.700000000000003,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -18.000000000000004,
    "p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "p2_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 66.66666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 8.078118064802487,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 189,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.7018303031334062,
    "rank_advantage": 175,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 16.666666666666657,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.20000000000001,
    "p1_surface_matches": 3,
    "p2_surface_matches": 4,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.186666666666667,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.5833333333333335,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3466666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -10.399999999999999,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.442270326871652,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.66633510961471,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 11.697171718890097,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.35338345864662,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.6000000000000014,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.75,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -14.25,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 16.666666666666657,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 9,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.008333333333333526,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17500000000000004,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.9358395989974944,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}