Darja Vidmanova vs Mingge Xu
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 07:15
13 Ene 2026, 07:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Darja Vidmanova
Darja …: 81,8%
Mingge …: 18,2%
¿Por qué Darja Vidmanova?
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (34%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Darja … | Mingge … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,25 | 3,75 | 80,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,30 | 3,70 | 76,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,22 | 5,49 | 81,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Darja …: +6,8%
Mingge …: -6,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Darja Vidmanova
Ranking
#142
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
4/6 = 66,7%
Mingge Xu
Ranking
#241
UTR Rating
11,65 Pro
UTR Ranking
#199
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 85,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,5862 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,4613 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 182,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 90,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 12,8067 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 6,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 25,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 6,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3800 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3400 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 58,4533 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 68,9000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 58,9000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 63,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 47,2000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,1667 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 21,5340 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 33,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,0910 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,1674 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 30,7564 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0817 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,4150 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 66,6667 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4282 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4282 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22708
API ID
15345308
Gamdom ID
589591
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22708,
"api_id": 15345308,
"gamdom_id": 589591,
"player1": "Darja Vidmanova",
"player2": "Mingge Xu",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-13T03:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.25,
"p2": 3.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.7
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.28,
"p2": 3.49
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8178,
"prob_p2": 0.1822,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8178,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 142,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 6,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 241,
"utr_singles": 11.65,
"utr_ranking": 199,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.65,
"ranking": 199,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.4282352941176471,
"utr_p2": 0.4282352941176471,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 1.5862068965517242,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 32.0,
"momentum_p2": 2.0,
"points_diff": 182,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 63.0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 30.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.38,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 66.66666666666666,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 90,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.461345566502621,
"rank_advantage": 85,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 66.66666666666666,
"bp_converted_diff": 47.20000000000001,
"p1_surface_matches": 6,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 58.45333333333334,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.1666666666666665,
"combined_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 68.9,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.0910364901941465,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.167436617765487,
"surface_rank_synergy": 30.75637110017473,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.666666666666664,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 25.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 58.9,
"surface_matches_ratio": 6.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 21.534000000000002,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 66.66666666666666,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 33,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08166666666666655,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.41500000000000004,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.806666666666665,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}