Eva Vedder vs Lucrezia Stefanini
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 05:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lucrezia Stefanini
Eva …: 36,2% Lucrezia …: 63,8%
¿Por qué Lucrezia Stefanini?
UTR 11,54 vs 11,61 (-0,07) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Eva … Lucrezia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,50 1,50 40,0%
Gamdom 2,60 1,52 38,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,76 1,57 36,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Eva …: -1,3% Lucrezia …: +1,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Eva Vedder
Ranking #224
UTR Rating 11,54 Pro
UTR Ranking #238
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 1/3 = 33,3%
Lucrezia Stefanini
Ranking #139
UTR Rating 11,61 Pro
UTR Ranking #209
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 11/23 = 47,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -86,0000
rank_ratio 0,6126
log_rank_ratio -0,4900
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -192,0000
best_rank_diff -110,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -14,4928
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -4,0344
surface_matches_ratio 0,1304
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 47,8261
surface_wr_p1_stable 40,8571
surface_wr_p2_stable 48,1481
p1_surface_matches 3,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3400
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,5533
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 11,2952
first_serve_won_diff 0,3116
second_serve_won_diff 15,2957
bp_saved_diff 10,9116
bp_converted_diff -13,5304
aces_per_match_diff 3,2754
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 32,0000
momentum_p2 10,0000
momentum_diff 22,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 14,5450
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 35,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 12,8379
serve_consistency_p2 11,0138
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 7,1018
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0807
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1077
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0700
utr_p1 0,4188
utr_p2 0,4271
utr_advantage -0,6037
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22711
API ID 15345238
Gamdom ID 589566
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22711,
    "api_id": 15345238,
    "gamdom_id": 589566,
    "player1": "Eva Vedder",
    "player2": "Lucrezia Stefanini",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T01:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.5,
      "p2": 1.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.6,
      "p2": 1.52
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.55,
      "p2": 1.49
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3624,
    "prob_p2": 0.6376,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6376,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 224,
      "utr_singles": 11.54,
      "utr_ranking": 238,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 139,
      "utr_singles": 11.61,
      "utr_ranking": 209,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 47.82608695652174,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.54,
      "ranking": 238,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.61,
      "ranking": 209,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.41882352941176476,
    "utr_p2": 0.4270588235294119,
    "utr_diff": -0.07000000000000028,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6126126126126126,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 32.0,
    "momentum_p2": 10.0,
    "points_diff": -192,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 10.911594202898549,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 22.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 47.82608695652174,
    "utr_advantage": -0.6037084950409684,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -110,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.4900224961362275,
    "rank_advantage": -86,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -14.492753623188413,
    "bp_converted_diff": -13.530434782608697,
    "p1_surface_matches": 3,
    "p2_surface_matches": 23,
    "serve_quality_diff": 11.295217391304348,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.2753623188405796,
    "combined_confidence": 0.5533333333333332,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.31159420289855433,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 12.837926696202832,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.0137717457737,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 7.101775306322142,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 48.148148148148145,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 15.295652173913034,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.13043478260869565,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 14.545000000000002,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 35,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.08066666666666678,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.10773913043478256,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.034356261022927,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}