Iryna Shymanovich vs Arina Rodionova
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 09:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iryna Shymanovich
Iryna …: 56,5% Arina …: 43,5%
¿Por qué Iryna Shymanovich?
UTR 11,51 vs 11,25 (+0,35) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (39%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Iryna … Arina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,20 61,9%
Gamdom 1,66 2,28 60,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,77 2,30 56,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Iryna …: -1,2% Arina …: +1,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Iryna Shymanovich
Ranking #154
UTR Rating 11,51 Pro
UTR Ranking #257
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 2/7 = 28,6%
Arina Rodionova
Ranking #208
UTR Rating 11,25 Pro
UTR Ranking #368
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 1/6 = 16,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 56,0000
rank_ratio 1,3733
log_rank_ratio 0,3172
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 116,0000
best_rank_diff -53,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 11,9048
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,8468
surface_matches_ratio 1,1667
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 28,5714
surface_wr_p2 16,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 37,8075
surface_wr_p2_stable 25,2727
p1_surface_matches 7,0000
p2_surface_matches 6,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,4286
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3933
p2_confidence 0,3800
combined_confidence 0,3867
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,1829
first_serve_won_diff -2,1000
second_serve_won_diff 10,3000
bp_saved_diff 4,7000
bp_converted_diff 0,5000
aces_per_match_diff 1,0714
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 8,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -44,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -32,8200
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 8,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 73,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 9,0782
serve_consistency_p2 6,6685
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 3,7767
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2703
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2773
elite_surface_amplifier 11,9048
UTR
utr_diff 0,3500
utr_p1 0,4235
utr_p2 0,3824
utr_advantage 3,0635
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22715
API ID 15345337
Gamdom ID 589601
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22715,
    "api_id": 15345337,
    "gamdom_id": 589601,
    "player1": "Iryna Shymanovich",
    "player2": "Arina Rodionova",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T05:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6153846153846154,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.66,
      "p2": 2.28
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.6,
      "p2": 2.25
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5647,
    "prob_p2": 0.4353,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5647,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 154,
      "utr_singles": 11.51,
      "utr_ranking": 257,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 28.57142857142857,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 208,
      "utr_singles": 11.25,
      "utr_ranking": 368,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 16.666666666666664,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 6,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.51,
      "ranking": 257,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.25,
      "ranking": 368,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4235294117647058,
    "utr_p2": 0.38235294117647056,
    "utr_diff": 0.34999999999999964,
    "rank_ratio": 1.3733333333333333,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 8.0,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": 116,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.70000000000001,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -44.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.38,
    "surface_wr_p1": 28.57142857142857,
    "surface_wr_p2": 16.666666666666664,
    "utr_advantage": 3.0634573304157517,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -53,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.3172408746933253,
    "rank_advantage": 56,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 11.904761904761905,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_matches": 7,
    "p2_surface_matches": 6,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.182857142857138,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.0714285714285714,
    "combined_confidence": 0.38666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.1000000000000014,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.42857142857142855,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.078176503468494,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.6684567423500285,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 3.776677079682444,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 37.80748663101605,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 25.272727272727273,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 10.299999999999997,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.1666666666666667,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -32.82000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 11.904761904761905,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 73,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.27028571428571435,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.2773333333333333,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.846773618538326,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}