Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Gao
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 11:05
13 Ene 2026, 11:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Xinyu Gao
Lilli …: 49,7%
Xinyu …: 50,3%
¿Por qué Xinyu Gao?
UTR 11,89 vs 11,70
(+0,20)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lilli … | Xinyu … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,53 | 2,38 | 65,2% |
| Gamdom | 1,63 | 2,35 | 61,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,01 | 1,99 | 49,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lilli …: -11,1%
Xinyu …: +11,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lilli Tagger
Ranking
#155
UTR Rating
11,89 Junior
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
4/7 = 57,1%
Xinyu Gao
Ranking
#209
UTR Rating
11,70 Pro
UTR Ranking
#183
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
7/13 = 53,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 53,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,3442 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,2958 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 105,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -27,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 3,2967 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 1,0328 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5385 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 53,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 55,3247 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 52,9412 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 13,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4733 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 2,1403 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,9000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,6000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 7,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -10,8000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,8352 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 9,8140 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 78,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,7898 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,7761 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,9751 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0184 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0915 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 3,2967 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4588 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4353 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,6949 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22718
API ID
15345354
Gamdom ID
589558
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22718,
"api_id": 15345354,
"gamdom_id": 589558,
"player1": "Lilli Tagger",
"player2": "Xinyu Gao",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-13T07:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5333333333333332,
"p2": 2.375
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.63,
"p2": 2.35
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.57,
"p2": 2.34
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4968,
"prob_p2": 0.5032,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5032,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 155,
"utr_singles": 11.89,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Junior",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 209,
"utr_singles": 11.7,
"utr_ranking": 183,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 13,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.89,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Junior",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.7,
"ranking": 183,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.45882352941176474,
"utr_p2": 0.4352941176470587,
"utr_diff": 0.20000000000000107,
"rank_ratio": 1.344155844155844,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 32.0,
"points_diff": 105,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 6.999999999999993,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 8.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.47333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
"surface_wr_p2": 53.84615384615385,
"utr_advantage": 1.6949152542372972,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -27,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.2957661908517399,
"rank_advantage": 53,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 3.296703296703292,
"bp_converted_diff": -10.799999999999997,
"p1_surface_matches": 7,
"p2_surface_matches": 13,
"serve_quality_diff": 2.1403296703296704,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.835164835164835,
"combined_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.9000000000000057,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.789750433911064,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.776053508423292,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.9750533764343059,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.32467532467532,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.94117647058824,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.600000000000001,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5384615384615384,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 9.814000000000007,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 3.296703296703292,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 78,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.01842857142857146,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.09146153846153837,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.0328495034377345,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}