Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Gao
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 11:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Xinyu Gao
Lilli …: 49,7% Xinyu …: 50,3%
¿Por qué Xinyu Gao?
UTR 11,89 vs 11,70 (+0,20) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lilli … Xinyu … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,53 2,38 65,2%
Gamdom 1,63 2,35 61,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,01 1,99 49,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Lilli …: -11,1% Xinyu …: +11,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lilli Tagger
Ranking #155
UTR Rating 11,89 Junior
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 4/7 = 57,1%
Xinyu Gao
Ranking #209
UTR Rating 11,70 Pro
UTR Ranking #183
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 7/13 = 53,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 53,0000
rank_ratio 1,3442
log_rank_ratio 0,2958
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 105,0000
best_rank_diff -27,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,2967
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 1,0328
surface_matches_ratio 0,5385
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 57,1429
surface_wr_p2 53,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,3247
surface_wr_p2_stable 52,9412
p1_surface_matches 7,0000
p2_surface_matches 13,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3933
p2_confidence 0,4733
combined_confidence 0,4333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,1403
first_serve_won_diff 0,9000
second_serve_won_diff -6,6000
bp_saved_diff 7,0000
bp_converted_diff -10,8000
aces_per_match_diff 1,8352
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 32,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 9,8140
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 8,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 78,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 4,7898
serve_consistency_p2 10,7761
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,9751
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0184
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0915
elite_surface_amplifier 3,2967
UTR
utr_diff 0,2000
utr_p1 0,4588
utr_p2 0,4353
utr_advantage 1,6949
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22718
API ID 15345354
Gamdom ID 589558
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22718,
    "api_id": 15345354,
    "gamdom_id": 589558,
    "player1": "Lilli Tagger",
    "player2": "Xinyu Gao",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T07:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5333333333333332,
      "p2": 2.375
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.63,
      "p2": 2.35
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.57,
      "p2": 2.34
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4968,
    "prob_p2": 0.5032,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5032,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 155,
      "utr_singles": 11.89,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Junior",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 209,
      "utr_singles": 11.7,
      "utr_ranking": 183,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 13,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.89,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Junior",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.7,
      "ranking": 183,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.45882352941176474,
    "utr_p2": 0.4352941176470587,
    "utr_diff": 0.20000000000000107,
    "rank_ratio": 1.344155844155844,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 32.0,
    "points_diff": 105,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 6.999999999999993,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 8.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.47333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2": 53.84615384615385,
    "utr_advantage": 1.6949152542372972,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -27,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.2957661908517399,
    "rank_advantage": 53,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.296703296703292,
    "bp_converted_diff": -10.799999999999997,
    "p1_surface_matches": 7,
    "p2_surface_matches": 13,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.1403296703296704,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.835164835164835,
    "combined_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.9000000000000057,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.789750433911064,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.776053508423292,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.9750533764343059,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.32467532467532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.94117647058824,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.600000000000001,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5384615384615384,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 9.814000000000007,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 3.296703296703292,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 78,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.01842857142857146,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.09146153846153837,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.0328495034377345,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}