Louisa Chirico vs Yue Yuan
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 06:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Yue Yuan
Louisa …: 25,5% Yue …: 74,5%
¿Por qué Yue Yuan?
UTR 11,50 vs 12,04 (-0,50) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Louisa … Yue … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,50 1,29 28,6%
Gamdom 5,00 1,19 20,0%
IA Fair Odds 3,92 1,34 25,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Louisa …: -1,4% Yue …: +1,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Louisa Chirico
Ranking #178
UTR Rating 11,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #247
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 1/8 = 12,5%
Yue Yuan
Ranking #130
UTR Rating 12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #95
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 8/25 = 32,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -38,0000
rank_ratio 0,7803
log_rank_ratio -0,2480
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -130,0000
best_rank_diff -22,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -19,5000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -3,8126
surface_matches_ratio 0,3200
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 12,5000
surface_wr_p2 32,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 28,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 34,4828
p1_surface_matches 8,0000
p2_surface_matches 25,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,7500
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4067
p2_confidence 0,8333
combined_confidence 0,6200
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,9232
first_serve_won_diff -2,6000
second_serve_won_diff 6,8440
bp_saved_diff -3,0760
bp_converted_diff -14,1000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0850
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 20,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff -30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -21,6400
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 9,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7872
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,1667
serve_consistency_p1 5,1019
serve_consistency_p2 17,4840
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 4,8363
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,3370
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2180
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5000
utr_p1 0,4165
utr_p2 0,4753
utr_advantage -4,2409
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22719
API ID 15345309
Gamdom ID 589594
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22719,
    "api_id": 15345309,
    "gamdom_id": 589594,
    "player1": "Louisa Chirico",
    "player2": "Yue Yuan",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T02:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.5,
      "p2": 1.2857142857142856
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 5.0,
      "p2": 1.19
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 4.96,
      "p2": 1.16
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2551,
    "prob_p2": 0.7449,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7449,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 178,
      "utr_singles": 11.5,
      "utr_ranking": 247,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 12.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 8,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 130,
      "utr_singles": 12.04,
      "utr_ranking": 95,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 32.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.5,
      "ranking": 247,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.04,
      "ranking": 95,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.41647058823529404,
    "utr_p2": 0.4752941176470587,
    "utr_diff": -0.5,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7803468208092486,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 20.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": -130,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.0760000000000005,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.4066666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 12.5,
    "surface_wr_p2": 32.0,
    "utr_advantage": -4.2408821034775235,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -22,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.2480168160593495,
    "rank_advantage": -38,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.16666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -19.5,
    "bp_converted_diff": -14.100000000000001,
    "p1_surface_matches": 8,
    "p2_surface_matches": 25,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.9232000000000014,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7872340425531915,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.08499999999999996,
    "combined_confidence": 0.62,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.6000000000000014,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.75,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.101875546671502,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 17.484016134054375,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 4.836327913157315,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 28.333333333333332,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 34.48275862068966,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 6.843999999999994,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.32,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -21.640000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 9,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.33699999999999997,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.21800000000000003,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.812643678160922,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}