Mai Hontama vs Maria Timofeeva
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 08:50
13 Ene 2026, 08:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mai Hontama
Mai …: 60,5%
Maria …: 39,5%
¿Por qué Mai Hontama?
UTR 11,38 vs 11,90
(-0,48)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Mai … | Maria … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,36 | 33,3% |
| Gamdom | 3,10 | 1,40 | 32,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,65 | 2,53 | 60,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Mai …: +29,2%
Maria …: -29,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mai Hontama
Ranking
#244
UTR Rating
11,38 Pro
UTR Ranking
#312
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
10% (10p)
WR Hard
7/16 = 43,8%
Maria Timofeeva
Ranking
#138
UTR Rating
11,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#129
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
1/5 = 20,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -104,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5702 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5617 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -217,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -12,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 23,7500 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 5,2500 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,2000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 43,7500 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 20,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 45,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 33,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 16,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 5,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1250 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -0,3250 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,7000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,5000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 10,8000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,0125 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -4,4490 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 9,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,8048 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,7137 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -13,3400 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0415 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,4040 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4047 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4612 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,1096 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22721
API ID
15345335
Gamdom ID
589589
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22721,
"api_id": 15345335,
"gamdom_id": 589589,
"player1": "Mai Hontama",
"player2": "Maria Timofeeva",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-13T04:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.3636363636363638
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.1,
"p2": 1.4
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.02,
"p2": 1.36
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6046,
"prob_p2": 0.3954,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6046,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 244,
"utr_singles": 11.38,
"utr_ranking": 312,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 43.75,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 16,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 10.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 138,
"utr_singles": 11.9,
"utr_ranking": 129,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 20.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 1,
"wr_surface_total": 5,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.38,
"ranking": 312,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.9,
"ranking": 129,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.4611764705882353,
"utr_diff": -0.4800000000000004,
"rank_ratio": 0.5702479338842975,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.0,
"points_diff": -217,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 10.800000000000004,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
"surface_wr_p1": 43.75,
"surface_wr_p2": 20.0,
"utr_advantage": -4.109589041095894,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -12,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5616840409994818,
"rank_advantage": -104,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 23.75,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.0,
"p1_surface_matches": 16,
"p2_surface_matches": 5,
"serve_quality_diff": -0.32499999999999574,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.0125000000000002,
"combined_confidence": 0.44999999999999996,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.700000000000003,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.125,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.804817286847221,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.713687540150067,
"surface_rank_synergy": -13.339995973737691,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 45.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.33333333333333,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.5,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.2,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -4.448999999999998,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 9,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.04149999999999998,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.40399999999999997,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.250000000000002,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}