Mai Hontama vs Maria Timofeeva
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 08:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mai Hontama
Mai …: 60,5% Maria …: 39,5%
¿Por qué Mai Hontama?
UTR 11,38 vs 11,90 (-0,48) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mai … Maria … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,36 33,3%
Gamdom 3,10 1,40 32,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,65 2,53 60,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Mai …: +29,2% Maria …: -29,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mai Hontama
Ranking #244
UTR Rating 11,38 Pro
UTR Ranking #312
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 10% (10p)
WR Hard 7/16 = 43,8%
Maria Timofeeva
Ranking #138
UTR Rating 11,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #129
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 1/5 = 20,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -104,0000
rank_ratio 0,5702
log_rank_ratio -0,5617
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -217,0000
best_rank_diff -12,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 23,7500
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 5,2500
surface_matches_ratio 3,2000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 43,7500
surface_wr_p2 20,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 45,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 33,3333
p1_surface_matches 16,0000
p2_surface_matches 5,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1250
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5333
p2_confidence 0,3667
combined_confidence 0,4500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,3250
first_serve_won_diff 3,7000
second_serve_won_diff -0,5000
bp_saved_diff 10,8000
bp_converted_diff 5,0000
aces_per_match_diff -1,0125
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -4,4490
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 9,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 5,8048
serve_consistency_p2 10,7137
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -13,3400
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0415
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,4040
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4800
utr_p1 0,4047
utr_p2 0,4612
utr_advantage -4,1096
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22721
API ID 15345335
Gamdom ID 589589
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22721,
    "api_id": 15345335,
    "gamdom_id": 589589,
    "player1": "Mai Hontama",
    "player2": "Maria Timofeeva",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T04:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.3636363636363638
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.1,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.02,
      "p2": 1.36
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6046,
    "prob_p2": 0.3954,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6046,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 244,
      "utr_singles": 11.38,
      "utr_ranking": 312,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 43.75,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 16,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 10.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 138,
      "utr_singles": 11.9,
      "utr_ranking": 129,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 20.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 5,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.38,
      "ranking": 312,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.9,
      "ranking": 129,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.40470588235294114,
    "utr_p2": 0.4611764705882353,
    "utr_diff": -0.4800000000000004,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5702479338842975,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.0,
    "points_diff": -217,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 10.800000000000004,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
    "surface_wr_p1": 43.75,
    "surface_wr_p2": 20.0,
    "utr_advantage": -4.109589041095894,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -12,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5616840409994818,
    "rank_advantage": -104,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 23.75,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 16,
    "p2_surface_matches": 5,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.32499999999999574,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.0125000000000002,
    "combined_confidence": 0.44999999999999996,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.700000000000003,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.125,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.804817286847221,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.713687540150067,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -13.339995973737691,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 45.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.33333333333333,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.5,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.2,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -4.448999999999998,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 9,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.04149999999999998,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.40399999999999997,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.250000000000002,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}