Manon Leonard vs Himeno Sakatsume
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 08:35
13 Ene 2026, 08:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Himeno Sakatsume
Manon …: 36,0%
Himeno …: 64,0%
¿Por qué Himeno Sakatsume?
UTR 11,48 vs 12,04
(-0,22)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (38%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Manon … | Himeno … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,75 | 1,25 | 26,7% |
| Gamdom | 4,00 | 1,26 | 25,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,78 | 1,56 | 36,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Manon …: +11,0%
Himeno …: -11,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Manon Leonard
Ranking
#203
UTR Rating
11,48 Pro
UTR Ranking
#264
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
2/5 = 40,0%
Himeno Sakatsume
Ranking
#140
UTR Rating
12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking
#94
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
4/7 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -48,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7588 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2760 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -102,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -25,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -17,1429 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -7,8289 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7143 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 34,7222 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,3247 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 5,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3800 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -5,1434 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -10,5000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,2600 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,6200 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -5,3400 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,2857 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -38,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -31,2040 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -5,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 2,4863 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,4727 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 4,7319 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0520 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0234 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4141 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4400 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,8917 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22722
API ID
15345334
Gamdom ID
589608
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22722,
"api_id": 15345334,
"gamdom_id": 589608,
"player1": "Manon Leonard",
"player2": "Himeno Sakatsume",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-13T04:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.75,
"p2": 1.25
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 4.0,
"p2": 1.26
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.83,
"p2": 1.24
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3601,
"prob_p2": 0.6399,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6399,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 203,
"utr_singles": 11.48,
"utr_ranking": 264,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 40.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 2,
"wr_surface_total": 5,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 140,
"utr_singles": 12.04,
"utr_ranking": 94,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.48,
"ranking": 264,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.04,
"ranking": 94,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.4141176470588235,
"utr_p2": 0.44,
"utr_diff": -0.22000000000000064,
"rank_ratio": 0.7587939698492462,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 22.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": -102,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.6199999999999974,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 6,
"momentum_diff": -38.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
"p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 40.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
"utr_advantage": -1.8916595012897737,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -25,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.27602498790956814,
"rank_advantage": -48,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -5,
"surface_wr_diff": -17.14285714285714,
"bp_converted_diff": -5.340000000000003,
"p1_surface_matches": 5,
"p2_surface_matches": 7,
"serve_quality_diff": -5.143428571428565,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.2857142857142856,
"combined_confidence": 0.38,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -10.499999999999993,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 2.4863070575469943,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.472695517449404,
"surface_rank_synergy": 4.731856935592596,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 34.72222222222222,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.32467532467532,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.260000000000005,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -31.204000000000008,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.051999999999999935,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.023428571428571354,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.828932178932177,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}