Manon Leonard vs Himeno Sakatsume
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 08:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Himeno Sakatsume
Manon …: 36,0% Himeno …: 64,0%
¿Por qué Himeno Sakatsume?
UTR 11,48 vs 12,04 (-0,22) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (38%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Manon … Himeno … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,75 1,25 26,7%
Gamdom 4,00 1,26 25,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,78 1,56 36,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Manon …: +11,0% Himeno …: -11,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Manon Leonard
Ranking #203
UTR Rating 11,48 Pro
UTR Ranking #264
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 2/5 = 40,0%
Himeno Sakatsume
Ranking #140
UTR Rating 12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #94
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 4/7 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -48,0000
rank_ratio 0,7588
log_rank_ratio -0,2760
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -102,0000
best_rank_diff -25,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -17,1429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -7,8289
surface_matches_ratio 0,7143
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 40,0000
surface_wr_p2 57,1429
surface_wr_p1_stable 34,7222
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,3247
p1_surface_matches 5,0000
p2_surface_matches 7,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3667
p2_confidence 0,3933
combined_confidence 0,3800
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,1434
first_serve_won_diff -10,5000
second_serve_won_diff 2,2600
bp_saved_diff 3,6200
bp_converted_diff -5,3400
aces_per_match_diff -0,2857
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 22,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -38,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -31,2040
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 8,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 6,0000
match_load_diff -5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 2,4863
serve_consistency_p2 8,4727
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 4,7319
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0520
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0234
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2200
utr_p1 0,4141
utr_p2 0,4400
utr_advantage -1,8917
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22722
API ID 15345334
Gamdom ID 589608
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22722,
    "api_id": 15345334,
    "gamdom_id": 589608,
    "player1": "Manon Leonard",
    "player2": "Himeno Sakatsume",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T04:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.75,
      "p2": 1.25
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.0,
      "p2": 1.26
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.83,
      "p2": 1.24
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3601,
    "prob_p2": 0.6399,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6399,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 203,
      "utr_singles": 11.48,
      "utr_ranking": 264,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 40.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 5,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 140,
      "utr_singles": 12.04,
      "utr_ranking": 94,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.48,
      "ranking": 264,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.04,
      "ranking": 94,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4141176470588235,
    "utr_p2": 0.44,
    "utr_diff": -0.22000000000000064,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7587939698492462,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 22.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": -102,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.6199999999999974,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 6,
    "momentum_diff": -38.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 40.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
    "utr_advantage": -1.8916595012897737,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -25,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.27602498790956814,
    "rank_advantage": -48,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -5,
    "surface_wr_diff": -17.14285714285714,
    "bp_converted_diff": -5.340000000000003,
    "p1_surface_matches": 5,
    "p2_surface_matches": 7,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.143428571428565,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.2857142857142856,
    "combined_confidence": 0.38,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -10.499999999999993,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.4863070575469943,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.472695517449404,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 4.731856935592596,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 34.72222222222222,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.32467532467532,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.260000000000005,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -31.204000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.051999999999999935,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.023428571428571354,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.828932178932177,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}