Polina Iatcenko vs Maria Carle
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 06:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Polina Iatcenko
Polina …: 77,8% Maria …: 22,2%
¿Por qué Polina Iatcenko?
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Polina … Maria … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,40 2,75 71,4%
Gamdom 1,44 2,90 69,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,28 4,51 77,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Polina …: +11,6% Maria …: -11,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Polina Iatcenko
Ranking #159
UTR Rating 11,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #115
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 8/10 = 80,0%
Maria Carle
Ranking #158
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 7/15 = 46,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -15,0000
rank_ratio 0,9080
log_rank_ratio -0,0965
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -54,0000
best_rank_diff -92,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 33,3333
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 11,2281
surface_matches_ratio 0,6667
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 80,0000
surface_wr_p2 46,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 71,4286
surface_wr_p2_stable 47,3684
p1_surface_matches 10,0000
p2_surface_matches 15,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,6000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4333
p2_confidence 0,5000
combined_confidence 0,4667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -44,6633
first_serve_won_diff -54,7000
second_serve_won_diff -54,6000
bp_saved_diff -53,8000
bp_converted_diff -50,4000
aces_per_match_diff -0,4667
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 58,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 14,2300
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 46,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3529
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 9,8712
serve_consistency_p2 13,0639
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -3,2179
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3150
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0483
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,4576
utr_p2 0,4576
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22723
API ID 15345324
Gamdom ID 589605
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22723,
    "api_id": 15345324,
    "gamdom_id": 589605,
    "player1": "Polina Iatcenko",
    "player2": "Maria Carle",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T02:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.9
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.41,
      "p2": 2.79
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7783,
    "prob_p2": 0.2217,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7783,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 159,
      "utr_singles": 11.97,
      "utr_ranking": 115,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 80.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 10,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 158,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 46.666666666666664,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 15,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.97,
      "ranking": 115,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.45764705882352946,
    "utr_p2": 0.45764705882352946,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.9079754601226994,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": -54,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -53.8,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 17.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_p1": 80.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 46.666666666666664,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -92,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.0965379270426473,
    "rank_advantage": -15,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 4,
    "surface_wr_diff": 33.333333333333336,
    "bp_converted_diff": -50.4,
    "p1_surface_matches": 10,
    "p2_surface_matches": 15,
    "serve_quality_diff": -44.663333333333334,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.35294117647058826,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.4666666666666667,
    "combined_confidence": 0.4666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -54.7,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.6,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.871155808192261,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 13.063918062469543,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -3.217930901421577,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 71.42857142857143,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 47.368421052631575,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -54.6,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 14.229999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 46,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.31500000000000006,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.048333333333333395,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 11.2280701754386,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}