Sofia Costoulas vs Lanlana Tararudee
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 11:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lanlana Tararudee
Sofia …: 41,7% Lanlana …: 58,4%
¿Por qué Lanlana Tararudee?
UTR 11,72 vs 11,89 (-0,14) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (39%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sofia … Lanlana … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,80 52,4%
Gamdom 2,01 1,85 49,8%
IA Fair Odds 2,40 1,71 41,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Sofia …: -6,9% Lanlana …: +6,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sofia Costoulas
Ranking #143
UTR Rating 11,72 Pro
UTR Ranking #179
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 1/4 = 25,0%
Lanlana Tararudee
Ranking #131
UTR Rating 11,89 Pro
UTR Ranking #132
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 4/10 = 40,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -28,0000
rank_ratio 0,8239
log_rank_ratio -0,1937
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -106,0000
best_rank_diff -18,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -15,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -4,2143
surface_matches_ratio 0,4000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 25,0000
surface_wr_p2 40,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 32,1429
surface_wr_p2_stable 42,8571
p1_surface_matches 4,0000
p2_surface_matches 10,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,5000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3533
p2_confidence 0,4333
combined_confidence 0,3933
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,8250
first_serve_won_diff -7,8500
second_serve_won_diff -3,0000
bp_saved_diff 13,7000
bp_converted_diff -5,2750
aces_per_match_diff 0,5000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 20,3000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 5,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 11,1609
serve_consistency_p2 7,6940
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,9056
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2220
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1280
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1400
utr_p1 0,4282
utr_p2 0,4447
utr_advantage -1,1956
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22726
API ID 15345353
Gamdom ID 589559
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22726,
    "api_id": 15345353,
    "gamdom_id": 589559,
    "player1": "Sofia Costoulas",
    "player2": "Lanlana Tararudee",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-13T07:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9090909090909092,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.01,
      "p2": 1.85
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.96,
      "p2": 1.79
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4165,
    "prob_p2": 0.5835,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5835,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 143,
      "utr_singles": 11.72,
      "utr_ranking": 179,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 25.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 4,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 131,
      "utr_singles": 11.89,
      "utr_ranking": 132,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 40.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 10,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.72,
      "ranking": 179,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.89,
      "ranking": 132,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4282352941176471,
    "utr_p2": 0.4447058823529411,
    "utr_diff": -0.1399999999999988,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8238993710691824,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": -106,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 13.700000000000003,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "surface_wr_p1": 25.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 40.0,
    "utr_advantage": -1.1955593509820561,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -18,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.19370687901907993,
    "rank_advantage": -28,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 3,
    "surface_wr_diff": -15.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": -5.2749999999999915,
    "p1_surface_matches": 4,
    "p2_surface_matches": 10,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.825000000000003,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.5,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.850000000000001,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.5,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.16094021392676,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.694044884301343,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.905603185286199,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 32.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.857142857142854,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.999999999999993,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.4,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 20.300000000000004,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.22199999999999998,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.128,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.214285714285714,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}