Yexin MA vs Varvara Lepchenko
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 1
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Yexin MA
Yexin …: 69,7% Varvara …: 30,3%
¿Por qué Yexin MA?
UTR 11,60 vs 11,56 (-0,04) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Yexin … Varvara … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,20 1,62 45,5%
Gamdom 2,41 1,60 41,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,43 3,30 69,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Yexin …: +27,4% Varvara …: -27,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Yexin MA
Ranking #225
UTR Rating 11,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #217
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 2/3 = 66,7%
Varvara Lepchenko
Ranking #146
UTR Rating 11,56 Pro
UTR Ranking #214
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 8/20 = 40,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -85,0000
rank_ratio 0,6272
log_rank_ratio -0,4665
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -181,0000
best_rank_diff -158,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 26,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 11,1452
surface_matches_ratio 0,1500
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 66,6667
surface_wr_p2 40,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,8095
surface_wr_p2_stable 41,6667
p1_surface_matches 3,0000
p2_surface_matches 20,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3400
p2_confidence 0,6667
combined_confidence 0,5033
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 10,2000
first_serve_won_diff 6,3000
second_serve_won_diff 5,5000
bp_saved_diff -3,5000
bp_converted_diff 6,0000
aces_per_match_diff 2,7000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 11,0060
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 77,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 40,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 8,8045
serve_consistency_p2 7,5819
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -12,4400
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2517
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1850
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0400
utr_p1 0,4176
utr_p2 0,4224
utr_advantage -0,3457
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22731
API ID 15345310
Gamdom ID 589598
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22731,
    "api_id": 15345310,
    "gamdom_id": 589598,
    "player1": "Yexin MA",
    "player2": "Varvara Lepchenko",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-12T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.6153846153846154
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.41,
      "p2": 1.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.35,
      "p2": 1.56
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6974,
    "prob_p2": 0.3026,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6974,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 225,
      "utr_singles": 11.6,
      "utr_ranking": 217,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 146,
      "utr_singles": 11.56,
      "utr_ranking": 214,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 40.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 20,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.6,
      "ranking": 217,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.56,
      "ranking": 214,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4176470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.4223529411764706,
    "utr_diff": -0.03999999999999915,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6271929824561403,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": -181,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.5,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 12.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 66.66666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2": 40.0,
    "utr_advantage": -0.34572169403629344,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -158,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.46650099869453354,
    "rank_advantage": -85,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 26.666666666666657,
    "bp_converted_diff": 6.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 3,
    "p2_surface_matches": 20,
    "serve_quality_diff": 10.199999999999996,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.7,
    "combined_confidence": 0.5033333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 6.299999999999997,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.80448498384117,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.581937780375838,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -12.440026631854224,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.809523809523796,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 41.66666666666667,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 5.5,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.15,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 11.006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 77,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 40,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2516666666666665,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.18499999999999994,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 11.145238095238085,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}