Paula Badosa vs Marie Bouzkova
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 06:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Paula Badosa
Paula …: 55,1% Marie …: 44,9%
¿Por qué Paula Badosa?
UTR 12,62 vs 12,48 (+0,12) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Paula … Marie … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,20 59,9%
Gamdom 1,71 2,20 58,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,81 2,23 55,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Paula …: -1,7% Marie …: +1,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Paula Badosa
Ranking #26
UTR Rating 12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking #12
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 13/22 = 59,1%
Marie Bouzkova
Ranking #44
UTR Rating 12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking #22
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 20/32 = 62,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 21,0000
rank_ratio 1,8400
log_rank_ratio 0,6098
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 493,0000
best_rank_diff 22,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -3,4091
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,9630
surface_matches_ratio 0,6875
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 59,0909
surface_wr_p2 62,5000
surface_wr_p1_stable 57,6923
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,1111
p1_surface_matches 22,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1818
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 9,0256
first_serve_won_diff 6,5852
second_serve_won_diff 4,3750
bp_saved_diff 2,0602
bp_converted_diff -8,6614
aces_per_match_diff 2,2102
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 38,0000
momentum_p2 38,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 10,8400
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 2,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,4000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7886
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5962
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7143
serve_consistency_p1 8,7932
serve_consistency_p2 14,0025
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,0787
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0699
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1460
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1200
utr_p1 0,5412
utr_p2 0,5271
utr_advantage 0,9569
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22734
API ID 15348390
Gamdom ID 590011
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22734,
    "api_id": 15348390,
    "gamdom_id": 590011,
    "player1": "Paula Badosa",
    "player2": "Marie Bouzkova",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-12T02:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.71,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.16
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5513,
    "prob_p2": 0.4487,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5513,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 26,
      "utr_singles": 12.62,
      "utr_ranking": 12,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.09090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 22,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 44,
      "utr_singles": 12.48,
      "utr_ranking": 22,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.62,
      "ranking": 12,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.48,
      "ranking": 22,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5270588235294118,
    "utr_diff": 0.11999999999999922,
    "rank_ratio": 1.84,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 38.0,
    "momentum_p2": 38.0,
    "points_diff": 493,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 2.0602272727272677,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 2,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 59.09090909090909,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.5,
    "utr_advantage": 0.9569377990430561,
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    "best_rank_diff": 22,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.6097655716208943,
    "rank_advantage": 21,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -3.4090909090909065,
    "bp_converted_diff": -8.661363636363632,
    "p1_surface_matches": 22,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": 9.02556818181818,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7886178861788617,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5961538461538461,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.2102272727272725,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 6.585227272727266,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.18181818181818182,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.79322841003408,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 14.002547004494403,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.0787462668894108,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 57.692307692307686,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.111111111111114,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.375,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6875,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 10.83999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06990909090909092,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14600000000000002,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.962962962962971,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}