Paula Badosa vs Marie Bouzkova
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 06:55
12 Ene 2026, 06:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Paula Badosa
Paula …: 55,1%
Marie …: 44,9%
¿Por qué Paula Badosa?
UTR 12,62 vs 12,48
(+0,12)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Paula … | Marie … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,67 | 2,20 | 59,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,71 | 2,20 | 58,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,81 | 2,23 | 55,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Paula …: -1,7%
Marie …: +1,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Paula Badosa
Ranking
#26
UTR Rating
12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking
#12
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
13/22 = 59,1%
Marie Bouzkova
Ranking
#44
UTR Rating
12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking
#22
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
20/32 = 62,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 21,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,8400 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,6098 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 493,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 22,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -3,4091 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -2,9630 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6875 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 59,0909 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 57,6923 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 61,1111 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 22,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1818 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 9,0256 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 6,5852 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,3750 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 2,0602 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -8,6614 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,2102 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 10,8400 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,4000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7886 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5962 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7143 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,7932 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 14,0025 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -2,0787 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0699 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1460 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5412 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5271 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,9569 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22734
API ID
15348390
Gamdom ID
590011
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22734,
"api_id": 15348390,
"gamdom_id": 590011,
"player1": "Paula Badosa",
"player2": "Marie Bouzkova",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-12T02:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.71,
"p2": 2.2
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.16
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5513,
"prob_p2": 0.4487,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5513,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 26,
"utr_singles": 12.62,
"utr_ranking": 12,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.09090909090909,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 22,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 44,
"utr_singles": 12.48,
"utr_ranking": 22,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.5,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 12,
"division": "Pro",
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},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 22,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": 0.11999999999999922,
"rank_ratio": 1.84,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 38.0,
"momentum_p2": 38.0,
"points_diff": 493,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 2.0602272727272677,
"h2h_wins_diff": 2,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 59.09090909090909,
"surface_wr_p2": 62.5,
"utr_advantage": 0.9569377990430561,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 22,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.6097655716208943,
"rank_advantage": 21,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -3.4090909090909065,
"bp_converted_diff": -8.661363636363632,
"p1_surface_matches": 22,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": 9.02556818181818,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7886178861788617,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5961538461538461,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.2102272727272725,
"combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 6.585227272727266,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.18181818181818182,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.79322841003408,
"serve_consistency_p2": 14.002547004494403,
"surface_rank_synergy": -2.0787462668894108,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 57.692307692307686,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.111111111111114,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.375,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6875,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 10.83999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06990909090909092,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14600000000000002,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.962962962962971,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 2,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}